1/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44

I see many of you were excited by the polls today, so here's a few things you #NeedToKnow about polls

First, all pollsters exhibit bias & it's measured enough to constitute a graph. Here's one from the 2015 election to give you some example:
2/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44

Watching polls throughout an election is a fool's game. It may provide insight at a given moment but it isn't until the final stretch that it may be indicative. Much can happen & a #LeadersDebate can change everything (click photo to see tail end)
3/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44

Next, the #338PollAggregator contains every bias from every pollster, as demonstrated in the photo from (1/5) in this thread. With that said, they currently list an exact tie between Libs & Cons, with NDP ranking lower than the poll released today
4/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44

According to bias, Ipsos was closest to centre during the 2015 election as demonstrated in post (1/5) & yet the line graph in (2/5) had a disparate ending

Currently Ipsos has the #LPC ahead of #CPC & it seems likely the #NDP is stat is inflated
5/5 🧵#CDNpoli #Polling #Elxn44

In the end, all that matters is seat count & *concentrated votes* in specific ridings, not the average of countrywide polls that #CDNmedia likes to trumpet all election long

Currently it's:

#LPC 141 (+/-) 43
#CPC 133 (+/-) 36
#NDP 36 (+/-) 16

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More from @MsAmyMacPherson

17 Sep
1/34 🧵#CDNpoli #SLAPP

I've received a threatening letter from lawyers on behalf of @MercedesGlobal & @globalnews to prevent me from speaking about Stephenson's role in #CDNmedia as the wife of Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole's #Elxn44 director

This #thread is my response
2/34 🧵#CDNpoli #CDNmedia #Elxn44

I will not comply with demands made in bad faith by @globalnews & @MercedesGlobal, nor will I shrink from unfounded #SLAPP allegations that are libelous against me. I ask that you cease & desist with this harassment. Here are my reasons (con't): Image
3/34 🧵#CDNpoli #CDNmedia #Elxn44

On the 1st page of your error-laden defamation notice, you claim that I've caused @globalnews & @MercedesGlobal "serious damage" but fail to state any negative consequences & fail to provide evidence of damage

Is Elections Canada investigating?
Read 36 tweets
15 Sep
1/9 I've had enough of #Elxn44 depravity. A death threat was broadcast about me by a podcaster you all listen to. Daily there are men on Twitter #SnitchTagging me to gun nuts to spark confrontation

#FYI I've already been shot by a 357 Magnum & I will not be intimidated by anyone
2/9 Most of you want the difficult reporting on dangerous topics that keep you up at night. But on social media, there's this trend where some of you (too many of you) throw female reporters at your enemies, as if we're virtual human shields you've nominated to fight your battles
3/9 But as you 'get your popcorn' to spectate at the events you've chosen for us to do battle, against the very entities you're afraid of, some of them try to track us down in our communities. I've had calls to my home from Yellow Vesters, Wexiters, Qanons, you name it
Read 12 tweets
11 Sep
1/24 🧵#CDNpoli #Elxn44

Disappointed in #CDNmedia. Downplaying #violence & mischaracterizing blame must stop. Threat is more serious than anyone wants it to be

This #thread is about NEW #HateClub escalation

cc @Nat_Div_RCMP @JustinTrudeau @cafreeland

archive.is/9HdKE
2/24 🧵#CDNpoli #Violence #Elxn44

Someone alerted me to a new post in Zelda's Facebook #HateClub (thank you)

On the surface it indicates a #Conservative partisan/electoral purpose & that's interesting enough, but upon digging deeper it's a legitimate cause for #NatSec concern
.
3/24 🧵#CDNpoli #Violence #Elxn44

Inspection of TheseAreTheFacts.net first revealed a plan to unite Conservatives
archive.is/dmFVL

Closer to election it became a Trudeau attack machine
archive.is/IsT6A

That claimed to be factual
archive.is/MDx9m
Read 24 tweets
4 Sep
1/24 🧵#CDNpoli #Elxn44

Since Zelda went into hiding over violent protests that terrorized hospitals & Liberal campaign stops, participants scurried to find new places to organize & a 🇨🇦 companion to Parler has emerged

This #thread is RE partisan #violence & how it's paid for
2/24 🧵#CDNpoli #Violence #Elxn44

There's been much ado trying to insulate Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole from the vulgar & violent uprising surrounding right-wing causes during the election

But on #Aug23 the CPC posted propaganda that specifically invoked violence as a motto
3/24 🧵#CDNpoli #Violence #Elxn44

The full Conservative ad shows a boxer punching forward & that was uncivilized enough

For those who use dark theme, xray, or colour inversion display (for style or visual disability), the violence was quite amplified

archive.is/1LtVy
Read 24 tweets
3 Sep
1/26 🧵#CDNpoli #2Michaels #Elxn44

It's been hard for me to watch #CDNmedia coverage of the 2 Michaels, knowing there's a pointless media blackout that's resulted in widespread #disinformation & exploitation by partisan actors

This #thread is RE Spavor

2/26 🧵#CDNpoli #2Michaels #Elxn44

Canada has become a laughing stock to our global partners due to #CDNmedia suppression of facts about Spavor & Kovrig, that are available to everyone else in the world, including 🇨🇦, if we only bothered to google

archive.is/9IxGI
3/26 🧵#CDNpoli #Elxn44

I've known facts about the #2Michaels for some time & I declined to share earlier so it wouldn't impact Spavor & Kovrig's trials in #China. But that collective ignorance is being weaponized against voters & both sides have been disingenuous in recent news
Read 27 tweets
30 Aug
1/26 🧵#CDNpoli #CDNmedia

You've heard me address the 4th Estate & its importance to a functioning democracy. You've seen destruction stateside when that strength becomes a liability via #FakeNews

This #thread is RE the collapse of Canada's parliamentary press gallery & #Elxn44
2/26 🧵#CDNpoli #CDNmedia #Elxn44

I've spent the past 3 elections working nonstop to correct #disinformation & it's so out-of-control that one person, or one team, is incapable of processing all the lies in our popular press anymore

I just didn't expect to become its target
3/26 🧵#CDNpoli #CDNmedia #Elxn44

I won't make excuses for anyone or search for a less antagonistic description to avoid the words 'lie, lying, or liar'

Dancing around what's happening in the parliamentary press gallery would be to enable it & I will play no role in propaganda
Read 27 tweets

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