Let me get my early take on the first #Elxn44 official debate, in order of performance

@theJagmeetSingh did not deliver on the promise of the TVA debate, his performance was too safe, he went back to talking points instead of the honest conversational style I expected
Next up @AnnamiePaul , I thought this was an opportunity for her to make gains, she squandered it by failing to even acknowledge the divides on foreign policy that plague her party, that was disingenuous #Elxn44
@yfblanchet was terrible in a number of segments, the @BlocQuebecois slide will continue with bleeding to all three other parties in Quebec, his arrogance was in check and maybe that was the problem, he can't find a balance

#Elxn44
@erinotoole was competent and mediocre, not the Prime Minister in waiting that some hoped to hear tonight. He has another kick at the can tomorrow for his closing arguments to #Elxn44 followers
@JustinTrudeau had some challenging moments, to be fair. The other leaders on stage did nothing to make his potentially awkward moments worse in a number of areas. Other than a few moments, he was the clearest winner for those on stage in this french #Elxn44 debate
And last but not least, @MaximeBernier , by skipping this debate (ok, he wasn't invited technically) may have won by default

The performance by @erinotoole did nothing to convince a single current @peoplespca supporter that he has a remote chance of ousting Trudeau in #Elxn44

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More from @quito_maggi

8 Sep
Based on what I’m seeing in early numbers tonight, the @peoplespca is definitely starting to narrow any path @erinotoole has to becoming PM in #elxn44
To be clear, the debate commission had no way of knowing that the @CPC_HQ policies would alienate so many right leaning voters, but today, it’s hard for me to understand why @MaximeBernier isn’t on stage for this #elxn44 debate
And before people get too excited, a similar dynamic is still in play for progressive voters, with @NDP making gains at the @liberal_party expense

One of those crazy @elxnometre simulations with an unmanageable hung parliament could be in play in #elxn44
Read 5 tweets
8 Sep
Your #Elxn44 forecast for today, please enjoy the first of two leaders debates tonight
The National landscape appears to be shifting again just ahead of the #Elxn44 debates

The @NDP is now second among female voters for the first time in our daily tracking, they have also expanded their lead among young voters under 35
The @ndp also now sits in 3rd place in Quebec where they appear to be making further seat gains, @theJagmeetSingh needs another solid performance in French tonight to solidify those potential gains

#Elxn44
Read 5 tweets
6 Sep
And here’s the #Elxn44 forecast for today, no change

Those of you who’ve been paying attention know that its highly unusual for a weekend sample to have no impact
What does it mean?

Either 1) we’re finally seeing an end to volatility in the electorate 2) this points to a new pattern on weekend vs weekday or 3) Liberals have gained relatively and we’ll see a return to parity by mid-week

#Elxn44
Now, below the #Elxn44 surface, there are substantial shifts that point to a different dynamic

We’ll start diving in to these changes later this week, stay tuned to @ipoliticsca for an update from @JosephAngolano

ipolitics.ca/2021/08/30/the…
Read 6 tweets
25 Aug 20
I want to provide some thoughts on the @CPC_HQ leadership of @ErinOTooleMP might mean for #cdnpoli but first a few disclaimers and background

#CPCLeadership
Let me start by saying congratulations to @ErinOTooleMP for the win, and to his team who worked hard under difficult circumstances

#cdnpoli #cpcldr
I’ve known Erin for more than 10 years and always had respect for his service and dedication to his family and community, despite ideological divides

#cdnpoli
Read 12 tweets
22 Feb 20
Bear with me for an #olpldr thread

Yesterday, I saw something on the #olpldr stream that really solidified for me the problem with a lot of the negativity we’ve seen and heard of late
I don’t want to amplify the message by referencing it, but someone indirectly attacked one of the candidates for something that is beyond their control, their gender #olpldr #onpoli
Over the last month, I’ve seen similar attacks on candidates on the basis of the colour of their skin, or their age, again, these are aspects no individual can control about who they are #olpldr
Read 12 tweets
18 Dec 19
These early #cpcldr polls of the general population do tell us a bit about what candidates might be viable and which are unlikely to compete, but I need to make a point about the “winability” measure that most are attempting to measure

#cdnpoli nationalpost.com/news/politics/…
Like the #elxn43 polls, I need to point out the importance of “where” instead of “how much”

An overwhelming approval or favourability in AB,BC &/or SK could make it appear one candidate has an advantage, while trailing among the remaining 2/3rds of the ridings in #cpcldr
So #cdnmedia should be cautious about #cpcldr polls that don’t provide regional breakouts

And Conservatives examining these with regards to “winability” should consider this same factor

#cdnpoli
Read 5 tweets

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