Thread by @quito_maggi

These early #cpcldr polls of the general population do tell us a bit about what candidates might be viable and which are unlikely to compete, but I need to make a point about the “winability” measure that most are attempting to measure

#cdnpoli nationalpost.com/news/politics/…

Like the #elxn43 polls, I need to point out the importance of “where” instead of “how much”

An overwhelming approval or favourability in AB,BC &/or SK could make it appear one candidate has an advantage, while trailing among the remaining 2/3rds of the ridings in #cpcldr

So #cdnmedia should be cautious about #cpcldr polls that don’t provide regional breakouts

And Conservatives examining these with regards to “winability” should consider this same factor

#cdnpoli

A candidate that has lower support in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces will not be able to close the gap with Liberals, NDP and the Bloc

Conversely, a candidate with lower support in AB and SK won’t impact results of #elxn44 significantly

#cdnpoli #cpcldr

I should add that @MainStResearch & @ipoliticsca will be bringing you some exclusive #cpcldr content in the new year,

Snapshots of not only Conservative voters, but members who will be the only people voting

Stay tuned for details after the Holidays #cdnpoli followers