No matter how suddenly this might have come, there is a state that may benefit the most from it, India 🇮🇳.
•Firstly, India may welcome the formation of AUKUS, as a stable, long-term US commitment to counter China in the region.
Moreover, in taking the UK within the agreement, Washington succeeded in committing London to take a more proactive role in defending "a free and open Indo-Pacific".
•Secondly, for India the formation of AUKUS outside the QUAD should be seen as complementary. rather than a downplay of the latter, in forming a complex security network in the region (one that can actively respond to Chinese assertiveness).
The formation of distinct security coalitions could be seen as a more pragmatic approach in a complex geopolitical region than the establishment of a whole NATO-like security organization.
This can be highlighted by India's presence in the QUAD, its non-participation in AUKUS given the "nuclear nature" of the agreement (India has its own nuclear capabilities, unlike Australia),and India's separate bilateral maritime relations with Japan, Australia and France.
Therefore, India should welcome any initiative aimed at counteracting China in the region, whether or not with Indian participation.
•Thirdly, AUKUS could represent a revival of the Anglosphere-minded approach in the Pacific. India feared that the Anglosphere bloc gave in to China amid growing economic relations between its members and Beijing.
After all, Australia disagreed with the first attempt to form the QUAD in the early 2000s, the UK declared a new "golden age" in Sino-British relations during David Cameron's tenure, and New Zealand🇳🇿,
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which is less enthusiastic about nuclear technology and does not share with Washington the same aversion to Beijing, said no to Wellington's participation in AUKUS.
How was the AUKUS announcement perceived on the international stage ?
The recent announcement of a new Anglosphere-minded collective security pact in Asia-Pacific between the US🇺🇸, the UK🇬🇧 and Australia🇦🇺, labeled as AUKUS.
The decision from Washington to equip the Australian submarine fleet with American nuclear technology, made waves not only in Asia, but Europe as well.
Upgrading the Australian fleet with nuclear-powered submarines as part of the US decision to close a historical taboo in Washington on the sharing of nuke tech. with other states,might be a turning pt. for Western alliances &a new chapter in strategic security cooperation,or not.
Projecting the riverine states, Myanmar🇲🇲, Thailand🇹🇭,
Laos🇱🇦, Vietnam🇻🇳 and Cambodia🇰🇭 directly in the
middle of the conflict between the two superpowers.
The duel bet. Washington and Beijing could take place through their rival institutions: the Western-backed Mekong River Commission(MRC) & the
Chinese-formed Mekong-Lancang Cooperation(LMC) framework which was initiated in 2015 in response to the former which was est. in the 1950
Will Afghanistan once again
become a safe haven for regional terrorism ?
There are two reasons why the Taliban's claim that Afghanistan🇦🇫 now will be different from the one over 20 years ago could be, if not fully, at least partially reasonable.
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Firstly, the Taliban is unwilling to follow the same mistakes they did
during their first rule (1996-2001), when close relations with al-Qaeda and its hosting on Afghan territory led to the launch of 9/11 terrorist operations followed by the US invasion of Afghanistan.
The Taliban might be extremist, but it is certainly not foolish and much more cautious in consolidating power (for the second time) in the long run.
Secondly, the same promise not to host terrorist groups was made not only to the US, but also to other major regional powers.
Why should India be concerned
about a Taliban regime in Kabul ?
After the capture of Kabul by the Taliban, no regional power is more concerned about the prospect of insurgents forming the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan than India 🇮🇳.
Anxieties in New Delhi over the fate of India's regional strategic interests and threats over its national security for the time being are unfolding on two fronts.
Firstly, India is concerned that Afghanistan under the Taliban regime will once again become a sanctuary for anti-India terrorist organizations.
When the Afghan president Ashraf Ghani has left ? The country, the proclamation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by the Taliban was nothing but a certainty.
If the Biden administration should be seriously blamed for something, then it should not be the rapid American withdrawal without a strategy to succeed the security
vacuum left behind, but rather the way Washington looked in the other direction....
When Pakistan played a double game for decades, publicly supporting inter-Afghan political reconciliation negotiations, while
hidding its military and intelligence support to the Taliban.
It was always been supporter of Taliban, since it became dumping ground of weapons from USA
Is Biden's withdrawal from the Middle East different from Trump ?
President Biden's announcement to withdraw all US🇺🇸 troops from Afghanistan🇦🇫 by September 1 echoed the vision of his predecessor, Donald Trump.
Moreover, the Democratic president announced in an official meeting held in Washington with the Iraqi🇮🇶;Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, that US forces will end their combat mission in Iraq by the end of the year.