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Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
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28 Sep, 3 tweets, 3 min read
Four proposed congressional maps in Michigan have been added to the FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Although Michigan now has an independent redistricting commission, these maps are about as biased toward Republicans as the 2011 map. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
As tweeps have pointed out, one of these maps creates a non-contiguous #MI13, and none creates more than one Black-majority seat. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

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More from @baseballot

Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
27 Sep
Texas Republicans' proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map shores up #TX07, #TX28, #TX32, and #TX34 for Dems and adds a new solid-blue #TX37 in Austin. In exchange, #TX02, #TX03, #TX06, #TX10, #TX21, #TX22, #TX23, #TX24, and #TX31 are made safer for their Republican incumbents.
Dem Rep. Vicente Gonzalez's #TX15 also becomes a bit redder, but still a tossup, under this map. I wonder if he moves over to the safe blue #TX34, whence Rep. Filemon Vela is retiring. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
22 Sep
The Congressional Baseball Game rosters are out, and Marjorie Taylor Greene is on the Republican team. congressionalbaseball.org/teams/
The GOP roster actually has a lot of turnover this year. Shaking things up in an attempt to win their first CBG since 2016.
Meanwhile, a rare senator—Jon Ossoff—joins the Democratic team, along with Kai Kahele and Frank Mrvan. The only Dem "retiring" this year is Jimmy Gomez.
Read 6 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
15 Sep
The two congressional maps unveiled by New York's bipartisan commission are now up & analyzed on @FiveThirtyEight's redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The "letters" plan would take the state's reapportioned-away congressional district out of the GOP column. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight While the "names" plan would shave off 2 Democratic seats and add a Republican #NY10 in NYC. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
3 Sep
The two new proposed congressional maps for Oregon are now up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The first map, Plan A, was proposed by Democrats, and you can see why. It would make a 5-1 map quite likely. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The second map, Plan B, was proposed by Republicans. It would keep the competitiveness of the current districts AND make the new #OR06 swingy as well. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 5 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
31 Aug
New SurveyUSA poll of #CAgov: 51% want to keep Newsom, 43% want to recall him. A big reversal from SurveyUSA's last poll that brings them more in line with the consensus. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Guessing this will really shift our average by overwriting the old SurveyUSA poll... We'll see.
Really transparent discussion from @surveyusa about why their last poll was an outlier & what might have caused the big swing. Good for them for being willing to publish the outlier AND to strive to improve. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Read 7 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
24 Aug
Voters don't fit neatly into "lanes," part 356:

Eric Adams voters' 2nd choices in the #NYCmayor race:

No 2nd choice 21%
Maya Wiley 20%
Andrew Yang 15%
Kathryn Garcia 12%
Ray McGuire 9%
Scott Stringer 8%
Wiley voters' 2nd choices:

Garcia 30%
Dianne Morales 20%
Adams 13%
Stringer 11%
No 2nd choice 6%
Yang 5%

#NYCmayor
Garcia voters' 2nd choices:

Wiley 27%
Stringer 17%
Adams 15%
Yang 14%
Donovan 10%
No 2nd choice 5%

#NYCmayor
Read 6 tweets

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