1/Yager is probably my least favourite Calgary oil/gas shill. He writes agitprop, not analysis, which is why he's beloved of thoughtful Albertans like Brett Wilson.

My response to Yager's latest propaganda.
2/Laughable straw man argument.

Sure, some extreme environmentalists want natgas to disappear tomorrow. But the mainstream view is that gas will be the last fossil fuel to be displaced by zero/low-carbon electricity, probably long after 2050.
3/Actually, natural gas as a feedstock for industry, esp. petrochemical manufacturing, is mentioned a lot.

And let's not forget "blue hydrogen," which uses steam methane reforming + CCS to create low-cost hydrogen.
4/Sorry, Dave, natural gas production is damaging to the environment. Methane is a potent GHG, 80x more than CO2 for the first 20 years. And Alberta gas production is leaky. Officially around 3% methane leakage, unofficially probably 1.5x-2x higher. BC is low (.3%).
5/I guess we're supposed to skip past the "challenging economics" comment.

Ok, let's talk about opposition. Oil/gas producers do not have a Charter right to operate unopposed by Canadians concerned about climate change.

And suppressing dissent is a bad look.
6/Did Dave miss the memo about the global climate crisis?

This is kind of pseudo-denialism and climate slow walking is so 2015.

Dear oil/gas bros, aren't you tired of playing defence all the time? Maybe skate to where the puck is going for a change.
7/Are we really pretending that the Texas power crisis wasn't almost entirely caused by natural gas wells freezing up?

And way to reduce the incredibly complex energy situation in California to a simplistic talking point.

Yager must be fun at Petroleum Club cocktail parties.
8/It's called an energy TRANSITION for a reason, Dave. Energy systems change slowly, even if this one has accelerated over the past few years.

Gas is an ideal partner for renewables until it isn't. That's likely to be decades down the road.

Everyone knows this.
9/Beware pedlars of common sense!

Energy transitions are messy. Despite the best intentions of planners, sometimes things go awry. And we're now in the disruptive decade of this transition.

Expect some mess as we muddle our way through a very complex process.
10/If you got this far, you've probably read Yager's CAPP-inspired pablum for yourself.

Did you find one interesting insight? A single thoughtful comment?

You're not supposed to.

Yager is part of the industry's effort to shape the Canadian energy narrative.
11/Keep it simple and easy to understand. Grind away on a few well chosen themes (Canadian oil/gas is ethical, environmentally friendly, good for the economy, etc.) and never depart from the script.

Tell stories over and over that support the narrative.
12/And as much as possible, keep citizens, govts, and regulators off balance by sucking as much oxygen out of the national energy conversation as possible.

We can't discuss Canada's energy transition if all we hear about are Alberta's grievances, can we?

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More from @politicalham

25 Aug
Compare CAPP's false claim from its energy election platform with CANGov data. There has been NO reduction at all.

"Canada's energy sector has made tremendous progress reducing greenhouse gas emissions..." - @OilGasCanada
#elxn44 #cdnpoli #ABleg
2/"CAPP and our members call upon Canadians and our leaders to seize the opportunity to unleash the economic and environmental power of Canada's natural gas and oil industry."

Oil/gas GHGs have plateaued at best, but CAPP wants a significant expansion of production?
3/Even under a business as usual scenario IHS MarkIt is forecasting 650,000 b/d new oil sands production by 2030, 900,000 b/d in total.

And now CAPP wants more?

How will that lower GHGs?

The historical records says they will rise.

Read 6 tweets
20 Jun
1. Electric vehicles drive peak oil demand.

2. Electrification is accelerating.

3. Alberta oil (esp. oil sands) need an energy transition plan, not just a climate plan.

Canada needs AB to be prosperous. Clinging to the status quo won't accomplish that.
2/Here' the interview with BloombergNEF's Dr. Nikolaos Soulopoulos I referred to.

BNEF is the gold standard of EV adoption forecasts. My guess is that it will be revising its sales forecasts every few years.

Disruption is here.
3/Speaking of disruption, here's my essay arguing that the 2020s will be this energy transition's disruptive decade just as the 1920s was the disruptive decade of the last energy transition.
energi.media/markham-on-ene…
Read 14 tweets
22 May
1/Vivian Krause got one thing right:

For 10 years starting in 2009 the Tar Sands Campaign received a total of $40 million to oppose the oil sands and pipelines that shipped bitumen to market.

Beyond that, most of what she wrote is incorrect, inaccurate, wrong, or torqued.
2/What is astonishing to a journalist is just how many errors she has made in her Postmedia op-eds, her blog posts, and her public presentations.

Errors of fact.

Errors of interpretation.

Errors wrought by ignorance of the oil/gas industry.

She isn't malicious, she's dumb.
3/She has been influential because Canadian oil/gas leaders, Harper and the CPC, and Jason Kenney and the UCP have used her to further populist narratives.

Her work was weaponized to advance a political agenda.

She was, and still is, a useful idiot for conservatives.
Read 4 tweets
13 May
1/Re. Line 5 as an excuse to build Energy East...

According to CERI, a federally regulated pipeline requires 9 years to review/approve. Add another 3-4 years to build EE.

So, let's say EE is in service by 2035. What's going on in Eastern Canada then?

ceri.ca/studies/compet…
2/Well, Quebec's ban on the sale of gasoline cars takes effect in...2035.

Wouldn't that be lovely timing? Alberta rides to the rescue just as one-third of the Eastern Canadian market says goodbye.

May we assume Ontario consumers might also buy a few EVs?
energi.media/energy-climate…
3/Well, we'll just export the crude oil that Quebec doesn't want, you say.

Here's IEA oil analyst Olivier Lejeune that global peak oil demand will arrive by the late 2020s or early 2030s.
Read 7 tweets
7 Apr
1/This morning @ShayeGanam asked me what Alberta should do about the potential of losing 50-75% of oil/gas jobs by 2050. My reply:

1. Better leadership (political and business)

2. Create a coherent climate plan

3. Create an energy transition plan

4. A sense of urgency!
2/Here's my interview with Chris Severson-Baker of @Pembina about urgency for @jkenney govt to put in place a robust climate plan to reassure investors worried about climate risk.
#ABleg #OOTT #CDNpoli
3/Here's my Oct. 22, 2019 (day after federal election) column arguing that a showdown between #Alberta and #Canada is inevitable given AB is 36% of national GHG emissions, O&G is 26%, and oil sands are 10%.

energi.media/markham-on-ene…
Read 6 tweets
6 Feb
1/In this innocent tweet, Mr. Chomyn (a prominent Alberta UCP conservative) exposes for all to see what is wrong with the conservative energy worldview:

He misunderstands the fundamentals of the energy transition.

This is a big deal, Albertans.
2/What's really happening:

The global energy system is being transformed by a vast army of new energy technologies centred on clean, abundant, and cheap electricity.

Wind, solar, batteries, and EVs are just the tip of the iceberg.

There are thousands more behind the scenes.
3/What conservatives think is happening:

That the energy transition is driven by policy.

Which, in turn, is driven by govts.

It follows, then, that political ideology and political action are to blame for Alberta's woes.

Change govts, you save AB's oil/gas economy.
Read 23 tweets

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