Compare CAPP's false claim from its energy election platform with CANGov data. There has been NO reduction at all.

"Canada's energy sector has made tremendous progress reducing greenhouse gas emissions..." - @OilGasCanada
#elxn44 #cdnpoli #ABleg
2/"CAPP and our members call upon Canadians and our leaders to seize the opportunity to unleash the economic and environmental power of Canada's natural gas and oil industry."

Oil/gas GHGs have plateaued at best, but CAPP wants a significant expansion of production?
3/Even under a business as usual scenario IHS MarkIt is forecasting 650,000 b/d new oil sands production by 2030, 900,000 b/d in total.

And now CAPP wants more?

How will that lower GHGs?

The historical records says they will rise.

4/Check out the federal party platforms on oil/gas. The @CPC_HQ planks are for all intent a rewrite of the CAPP press release.
energi.media/markham-on-ene…
5/Check out the Oil Sands Net-zero by 2050 Pathway Initiative, which will rely on carbon capture and storage for ~50% of GHG reductions.

CCS infrastructure takes a long time to build.

How will GHGs fall before then as production rises by 650,000 b/d?

nationalobserver.com/2021/07/20/opi…
6/Watch this interview about how hard it is to reduce oil sands GHGs.

But CAPP wants to increase oil sands production even more than 650,000 b/d by 2030 while claiming that GHGs will go down?

It beggars belief.

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More from @politicalham

20 Jun
1. Electric vehicles drive peak oil demand.

2. Electrification is accelerating.

3. Alberta oil (esp. oil sands) need an energy transition plan, not just a climate plan.

Canada needs AB to be prosperous. Clinging to the status quo won't accomplish that.
2/Here' the interview with BloombergNEF's Dr. Nikolaos Soulopoulos I referred to.

BNEF is the gold standard of EV adoption forecasts. My guess is that it will be revising its sales forecasts every few years.

Disruption is here.
3/Speaking of disruption, here's my essay arguing that the 2020s will be this energy transition's disruptive decade just as the 1920s was the disruptive decade of the last energy transition.
energi.media/markham-on-ene…
Read 14 tweets
22 May
1/Vivian Krause got one thing right:

For 10 years starting in 2009 the Tar Sands Campaign received a total of $40 million to oppose the oil sands and pipelines that shipped bitumen to market.

Beyond that, most of what she wrote is incorrect, inaccurate, wrong, or torqued.
2/What is astonishing to a journalist is just how many errors she has made in her Postmedia op-eds, her blog posts, and her public presentations.

Errors of fact.

Errors of interpretation.

Errors wrought by ignorance of the oil/gas industry.

She isn't malicious, she's dumb.
3/She has been influential because Canadian oil/gas leaders, Harper and the CPC, and Jason Kenney and the UCP have used her to further populist narratives.

Her work was weaponized to advance a political agenda.

She was, and still is, a useful idiot for conservatives.
Read 4 tweets
13 May
1/Re. Line 5 as an excuse to build Energy East...

According to CERI, a federally regulated pipeline requires 9 years to review/approve. Add another 3-4 years to build EE.

So, let's say EE is in service by 2035. What's going on in Eastern Canada then?

ceri.ca/studies/compet…
2/Well, Quebec's ban on the sale of gasoline cars takes effect in...2035.

Wouldn't that be lovely timing? Alberta rides to the rescue just as one-third of the Eastern Canadian market says goodbye.

May we assume Ontario consumers might also buy a few EVs?
energi.media/energy-climate…
3/Well, we'll just export the crude oil that Quebec doesn't want, you say.

Here's IEA oil analyst Olivier Lejeune that global peak oil demand will arrive by the late 2020s or early 2030s.
Read 7 tweets
7 Apr
1/This morning @ShayeGanam asked me what Alberta should do about the potential of losing 50-75% of oil/gas jobs by 2050. My reply:

1. Better leadership (political and business)

2. Create a coherent climate plan

3. Create an energy transition plan

4. A sense of urgency!
2/Here's my interview with Chris Severson-Baker of @Pembina about urgency for @jkenney govt to put in place a robust climate plan to reassure investors worried about climate risk.
#ABleg #OOTT #CDNpoli
3/Here's my Oct. 22, 2019 (day after federal election) column arguing that a showdown between #Alberta and #Canada is inevitable given AB is 36% of national GHG emissions, O&G is 26%, and oil sands are 10%.

energi.media/markham-on-ene…
Read 6 tweets
6 Feb
1/In this innocent tweet, Mr. Chomyn (a prominent Alberta UCP conservative) exposes for all to see what is wrong with the conservative energy worldview:

He misunderstands the fundamentals of the energy transition.

This is a big deal, Albertans.
2/What's really happening:

The global energy system is being transformed by a vast army of new energy technologies centred on clean, abundant, and cheap electricity.

Wind, solar, batteries, and EVs are just the tip of the iceberg.

There are thousands more behind the scenes.
3/What conservatives think is happening:

That the energy transition is driven by policy.

Which, in turn, is driven by govts.

It follows, then, that political ideology and political action are to blame for Alberta's woes.

Change govts, you save AB's oil/gas economy.
Read 23 tweets
5 Feb
"...Canada will not be able to fill that (petroleum) demand if we continue to let ideologically driven governments and activists shut in our products." - Cory Morgan in Suits & Boots email

Uh, energy transition, dude.

It's technology, markets, capital - not ideology.
2/Watch today's interview with battery scientist @JamesTFrith of @BloombergNEF and tell me that change is driven by "ideology" and not market changes created by new, better technologies.

#energytwitter #EVs #batteries #ABleg
3/Frith explaining why battery prices are falling so rapidly.

Here's the irony for Morgan: engineers make oil/gas production possible...and they're responsible for ever-improving batteries.

Should we believe they can do one thing but not the other?
Read 4 tweets

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