Many things but picking three: 1) focus on reductions then removals (& separate them out) 2) justify how it is fair and adequate 3) have a clear plan showing how reductions are achieved in the near term (1/n) bbc.com/future/article…@BBC_Future
Together with @CFyson from @climateactiontr and @katecullen_ we comment on how #NetZero targets can help, but also on how there is a series of boxes to be ticked by before any #NetZero target becomes a solid and ambitious contribution to tackling the #ClimateCrisis. (2/n)
I wrote a long thread on 10 guidelines that we published earlier this year in the scientific journal @Nature (with Annette Cowie, @ReisingerAndy and @Oliver_Geden) (3/n)
Good news:
we are doing increasingly better closing in on 2°C
Bad news:
it is still far from meeting the goals of the #ParisAgreement
A short thread (1/n)
The @UNEP#emissionsgap report takes stock of current pledges of countries and compares them to where emissions emissions should be going to limit warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
The difference is called the emissions gap.
(2/n)
The latest @UNEP#EmissionsGap Report finds new and updated Nationally Determined Contributions only take 7.5% off predicted 2030 emissions compared to previous commitments. Reductions of 30% are needed to stay on the least-cost pathway for 2°C and 55% for 1.5°C. (3/n)
After yesterday, we now landed on changes in extremes🌡️⛈️🥵🧺!
And although I don't like to pick favorites, I do like this visual very much.
Too big for a single tweet, this one shows how hot extremes over land change compared to when our great-grandparents were alive. (2/n)
Did you notice in the previous figure: a heat extreme that our great-grandparents would have experienced once in their lifetime, will occur about once every 4 years in a 2°C warmer world. It will be the norm in a 4°C warmer world.
Carbon budgets tell us how much CO2 we can still emit while keeping warming below specific limits.
The latest @IPCC_CH report provides updated estimates of these budgets.
Here’s an insider's view with a deep dive looking at how they have changed since previous reports. (1/n)
I have been involved in the estimation of carbon budgets since the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in early 2010s.
And since the first IPCC estimates published in 2013, we have learned a lot and have gotten much better at estimating remaining carbon budgets. (2/n)
The scientific basis underlying a carbon budget is our robust scientific understanding that global warming is near-linearly proportional to the total amount of CO2 we ever emit as a society.
This is shown in Fig. SPM10, both for the past and future projections. (3/n)
EXPLAINER: new projections for the next 5 years by @metoffice and @WMO indicate that there's a high chance that one of these years is 1.5°C warmer than average preindustrial levels.
The 1.5C level in the @metoffice announcement should not be confused with the 1.5C limit in the Paris Agreement.
The Paris targets refer to global warming - that is, the temperature increase of our planet once we smooth out important year-to-year variations (see👇)
(2/n)
Even in a stable climate, global temperatures differ from year to year because of noise in the climate system.