Benchmark Lithium prices - Battery Grade, EXW China @benchmarkmin
Nov 2018 $11,875
Nov 2019 $7,950
Nov 2020 $6,100
Today $30,025
Structural shortage is set to hit in 2022.
Lithium carbonate prices are at all time highs but easy to see them soar above $40k in 2022
Lithium is the key element that this entire low carbon economy is being built on. With low cost energy storage en masse, speed, scale and economics will fall apart
The passed £1 Trillion US #InfrastructureBill is set to send lithium into a super bull market next year.
The White House has identified lithium ion batteries as a core technology.
“We will get America off the sidelines on manufacturing solar panels, wind farms, batteries, and electric vehicles to grow these supply chains”
Also why The White House and President Biden stepped in to settle LG Chem / SK Innovation dispute in April
Earlier in the year I explained that the lithium demand trajectory was double the rate of the supply response, creating an almighty supply demand gap.
This lithium gap will increase as a result of the US #InfrastructureBill … it’s natural for investors and industry to focus on the end market - the electric vehicle #EV - first
But any savvy investor will be looking at the entire supply chain and investing in the slowest or weakest link in the #EV supply chain first.
It takes 7 yrs to build a lithium mine, yet only 2 yrs to build a battery plant.
Mining lives on different timelines to manufacturing
The lithium ion battery is ready to power the world…
But the supply chain, from mine to battery cell needs it’s fair share or investment to make it happen otherwise US #InfrastructureBill ambitions or climate ambitions will fall apart
The one trillion dollar #InfrastructureBill and #COP26 in the same week is great news for the lithium ion battery and #EV thematic and a super bull lithium market
But lithium is an industry that is not yet set for this demand scenario
In 2019 I was asked whether lithium prices in the next price surge would ever reach the highs of 2016.
My response was this time it would be more aggressive. Instead of the late 20s, prices in China would exceed $40,000/t
There are a few reasons…
This time there are more buyers than in 2016.
There are still not enough sellers: miners, refiners.
Demand for lithium is outstripping the rate supply is growing by double.
The wall of EV demand for lithium continued to build, esp 2026 and beyond.
Right now the lithium industry is responding in real time, in many ways, and isn’t addressing a massive demand issue that we face towards the latter end of the decade.
For this massive investment would be needed or DLE breakthroughs to help close the supply demand gap.
<thread> My third testimony to the US Senate, June 2020: key points
China is building the equivalent of one battery megafactory a week, the United States one every four months.
In that time, we have witnessed a global battery arms race and watched the world’s number of supersized battery plants – known as battery megafactories or gigafactories – go from 17 to 142 [now 167]
Lithium ion batteries are a core platform technology for the 21st century.
They allow our energy to be stored on a widespread basis in electric vehicles and energy storage systems, and they spark the demand for the critical raw materials and chemicals.
[@benchmarkmin thread] Pertinent points on Tesla’s plan for produce lithium, the first auto maker to do so....
New lithium hydroxide facility expect to be co-located next to Terafactory in Austin
Tesla will build the USA’s first battery materials hub which in addition to lithium is expected to include cathode and nickel chemical production feeding into 4680 battery cell production