-- When Macro Top? When Exit/Sell? --

This thread will cover a few indicators and metrics i will be looking at to help me identify when i should start to sell my #Bitcoin with the potential of a bear market to come.

TLDR: When i am going to sell my #Crypto
🔹Q2/3 2022 @ ~$200k
-- 1/ The #Bitcoin / #Crypto Bubble --

First thing is understand how bubble markets move, & especially how the #cryptocurrency market moved in the past, & where we are now.

Below shows the stages of a bubble market, which #BTC has been through 3 full cycles & now is in its 4th.
-- 2/ Retail FOMO --

There are 2 key metrics that I use to help understand the stage of the bubble which we are in & when a top is close.

1⃣ Google Trends
2⃣ Fear & Greed Index
-- 2a/ Google Trends --

🔹Shows the trends on search keywords i.e. #bitcoin & #ethereum etc...
🔹The level to I want to see is between 80-90 on the yearly chart for a top to be close

🌐: trends.google.com/trends/explore…
-- 2b/ Fear & Greed --

Made up of emotions & sentiments from different sources, which ave been crunched / combined into one simple number.

Be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

⚠️ When F&G > 90 look for tops

🌐: alternative.me/crypto/fear-an…
-- 3/ Weekly RSI --

When a Macro top is put in, we tend to see a clear Weekly Bearish divergence formed inside the 🐂 control zone.

Currently we have only had the first stab into the 🐂 control zone, now waiting for the 2nd and the divergence to form to mark a macro cycle top.
-- 4/ Log Curve --

The #Bitcoin log curve indicator, plots logarithmic curves fitted to major Bitcoin bear market tops & bottoms.

Tops are made in the 🟥 zone, bottoms in the 🟩

Currently #BTC isn't anywhere near the 🟥 zone, where a top is likely.
-- 5/ Major Fib levels --

#Bitcoin tops have in the past 2 cycles been at or very close to the 2.272 extension of the previous 🐻market dip, see 🟥 boxes

The subsequent 🐻 market bottom has been at the 1.618 of that same fib extension, see 🟦 boxes

🔥#BTC still has a way 2 go!
-- 6/ When to Sell?

Using time of the cycles & the fact that we expect the cycles to get longer. We can extrapolate with the 2.272 fib target, the log curve 🟥 zone, pitchfork channeling and simple time expansion, that the top will be:

🔥Q2/3 2022 @ ~$200k
-- 7/ When to Buy back in?

The next 🐻 bottom can also be extrapolated in a similar fashion, using the 1.618 fib level, which happens to also coincide with Support, and time in relation to previous bottoming structures.

Bear market bottom at the end of Q2/3 2023 @ at
-- 8/ Conclusion --

🔹IMHO i think we still have a while to go before #Bitcoin tops out
🔹None of the measures or indicators are saying we have a top
🔹That said i don't think we go in a straight line, so there will be swings on the way

Please RT & Like if this was useful.

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More from @mark_cullen

22 Aug
--🧑‍🎓Educational - Linear vs. Log-scale --

Just a quick summary, as i have had DMs about it recently

1. Logarithmic Charts Explained
2. Linear Charts Explained
3. When to Use Log rather than Linear
4. Summary

#cryptotrading #cryptocurrency #Crypto #Bitcoin
-- Logarithmic Charts Explained --

🔹 Logarithmic or log price scale, represents price spacing on the vertical or y-axis dependent on the PERCENTAGE CHANGE in the underlying asset's price

🔹 Think of it as the log scale shows the rate of change over time

#cryptotrading #Crypto
-- Linear Charts Explained --

🔹 Linear or arithmetic price scale, represents price on the y-axis using equidistant spacing between the designated prices / the absolute values

🔹 Think of it as showing the absolute number increase / decrease over time

#cryptotrading #Crypto
Read 5 tweets
22 Apr
-- Educational - #Fibonacci trading? --

1. What are Fibonacci numbers? (4 parts)
2. How are they used in Trading? (4 parts)
4. Using Fib Extensions (2 parts)
5. Using Fib Retracements (2 parts)
5. Using Time Cycles (2 parts)

#BTC #cryptocurrency #Crypto #TRADINGTIPS
-- What are #Fibonacci numbers? Pt.1 --

🔹 Fibonacci numbers are a numerical series depicting nature’s expansion
🔹 The same number sequence appears all over throughout nature. i.e.
🔸 The number of petals on a flower
🔸 A snail shell

#BTC #cryptocurrency #Crypto #TRADINGTIPS
-- What are #Fibonacci numbers? Pt.2 --

🔹 The sequence is made by simply starting at 1 and adding the previous number to arrive at the new number:

0+1=1, 1+1=2, 2+1=3, 3+2=5, 5+3=8, 8+5=13, 13+8=21, 21+13=34,…

#BTC #cryptocurrency #Crypto #TRADINGTIPS
Read 16 tweets
19 Apr
-- #BTC HFT Range Parabola --

🔹This could take a bit to explain what i am seeing

🔹I am using:
🔸Yearly closes (Red Dots)
🔸Ranges taken from the closes, broken into Phases
🔸A Parabola linking the yearly closes
🔸Elliot Wave for wave structure


#Bitcoin Image
-- #BTC HFT Range Parabola --

🔹The Phases double in Height each year. i.e.
🔸Phase 1 = 1 range height from open to close
🔸Phase 2 = double phase 1 in height*
🔸Phase 3 = double phase 2 in height*
*Gets more parabolic as time goes on

#Bitcoin Image
-- #BTC HFT Range Parabola --

🔹The EW count puts us in the 4th wave of the 3rd
🔹The 4th is looking like a big running flat correction
🔹The 5th if taken as a 1:1 of wave 1, would take us to ~$200K
🔹The W4 correction will be a killer and make every think its over. BUT its NOT! Image
Read 5 tweets
19 Apr
-- Educational - When is the next “Alt Season”? --

[An 11 Part thread, bear with it.]

1. What is Alt Season?
2. What is #Bitcoin Dominance?
3. How to interpret BTC.D
4. How to trade based on BTC.D pt.1
5. How to trade based on BTC.D pt.2
6. What is TOTAL2?

#Crypto #BTC Image
-- Educational - When is the next “Alt Season”? --

7. How to interpret #TOTAL2
8. How BTC.D and TOTAL2 can be used in conjunction Pt.1
9. How BTC.D and TOTAL2 can be used in conjunction Pt.2
10. What is the current state of play Pt.1?
11. What is the current state of play Pt.2? Image
-- What is “Alt Season”? --

🔹 A.k.a Altszn, is a part of the #cryptocurrency market cycle when many alt coins “moon”
🔹 "Mooning" is when a coin go up quickly in price
🔹 Basically an Altszn is when the Alts are out performing #BTC against the $

#altszn #bitcoin #crypto Image
Read 14 tweets
13 Apr
-- #Crypto 101 - Beginners guide (Part 2) /2 --

Content in Part 2:
🔹What are STO's ICO's & IEO/IDO's?
🔹Crypto Regulations at a glance
🔹How do i get started buying my first Crypto?
🔹Basic day 1 Crypto investment strategy
🔹Is #BTC/Crypto a Bubble?
🔹Crypto Slang
🔹What next?
-- What are STO's ICO's & IEO/IDO's?? /18--

🔹#STO - Security Token Offering
🔸 An investment contract which is backed by the security token
🔸 Token is asset-backed and represents ownership
🔸 Like a digital certificate much like the real-world stocks and bonds
-- What are STO's ICO's & IEO/IDO's?? Cont'd /19--

🔹#ICO - Initial Coin Offering
🔸 Used to launch a service or product like a new #cryptocurrency token or an app
🔸 Similar to IPO (Initial Public Offering) which is used by a company to raise funds on the stock market
Read 16 tweets
13 Apr
-- #Crypto 101 - Beginners guide (Part 1) /1 --

Content in Part 1:
🔹What is a #Cryptocurrency?
🔹How many Cryptocurrencies are there?
🔹Types of Cryptocurrency
🔹What are real world applications of Crypto?
🔹Pros and Cons of Crypto?
🔹Crypto, the future of Finance?
-- What is a #Cryptocurrency? /3 --

🔹A cryptocurrency is a form of digital asset based on a network that is distributed across a large number of computers
🔹Decentralization allows them to exist outside the control of governments and central authorities

-- What is a #Cryptocurrency? Cont'd /4 --

🔹Cryptocurrencies have many real word applications, i.e. secure payments online
🔹"Crypto" refers to the various encryption algorithms and cryptographic techniques that safeguard the entries
🔹The most widely known Crypto is #Bitcoin
Read 16 tweets

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