Alright #CFBPlayoff viewers. Lets go through this week's poll. Once again, it was, as it always has been, predictable. The model was off an average of 1 spot per team for the entire Top 25 poll this week. So let's take a look at some resumes shall we? #CFB 🧵
If you took a peak at this projection yesterday, you were prepared for alot of what you saw last night. The resumes are all laid out very similarly to the way the Playoff Committee views them. #ThereIsNoEyeTest
25 #HailState 6-4
SOS: 29, QW: 4, T25W: 2, GC: 3.3

Despite the horrible game control at 3.3, MSU snuck its way into the poll. They modeled at 26 so this isn't all that surprising. They are riding their good SOS, 4 QWs, and 2 T25Ws at this point. No surprise.
24 #Houston 9-1
SOS: 125, QW: 2, T25W: 0, GC: 18.1

The cougars modeled at 24 so this is spot on. Why'd it take so long for them to get to this point in the poll? That SOS is just bad. The 2 QWs did get them in this week though and their GC is good at 18.1
23 #Utah 7-3
SOS: 57, QW: 2, T25W: 0, GC: 11.9

The #Utes resume is ok. Just ok. The SOS is lukewarm, they have 2 QWs which is ok, no T25Ws, and a relatively low GC. They modeled at 20, so this is maybe a skoosh lower than expected. But not enough to be a surprise.
22 #UTSA 10-0
SOS: 130, QW: 2, T25W: 0, GC: 19.6

The Roadrunners modeled at 23, so why so low? Their undefeated right? Just look at that SOS. That's about as far as the committee got too with this resume.
21 #Arkansas
SOS: 44, QW: 2, T25W: 2, GC 8.0

#WPS modeled at 17, so they may have the largest gripe in the poll this week. I suspect that low GC number could have something to do with them not being quite in the Top 20 yet. Rest of the resume is Top 20 worthy historically.
20 #NCState 7-3
SOS: 48, QW: 2, T25W: 0, GC: 13.3

The Wolfpack just stayed in the Top 20. They are here because of that SOS & marginal GC. They'll most likely hover around here the next few weeks. They modeled at 22.
19 #SanDiegoState
SOS: 112, QW: 3, T25W: 1, GC: 10.9

How do the #Aztecs find their way inside the Top 20 and the Roadrunners still undefeated are outside? Look at those 3 QWs and 1 T25W. That's the same thing the committee sees. They modeled at 21 so no surprise here.
18 #Pittsburgh 8-2
SOS: 115, QW: 1, T25W: 0, GC: 20.8

Wait a second. Why is #H2P ranked ahead of SDSU? They only have 1 QW right? Look at that GC. Its one of the better ones in the poll. That gets them here. They modeled at 19 so no surprise.
17 #Iowa 8-2
SOS: 75, QW: 3, T25W: 0, GC: 8.4

The #Hawkeyes continue to hover around this spot. Why don't they move up? Their SOS continues to slide, and their GC is on the low side at 8.4. Those 3 QWs will keep them in this spot though. They modeled at 16 so no surprise.
16 #TAMU 7-3
SOS: 33, QW: 2, T25W: 1, GC: 11.5

#GigEm modeled at 18. This is mainly why #Arkansas may have a gripe. Very similar resumes, but the Hogs have the H2H. No matter tho.The Aggies will stay just outside to Top 15 for now, but have the chance to move up with that SOS.
15 #Wisconsin
SOS: 12, QW: 4, T25W: 1, GC: 11.6

The #Badgers are going to get a lot of leeway for that poor GC because of the rest of their resume. They modeled at 14 so this is right where they belong according to the process in place.
14 #BYU 8-2
SOS: 69, QW: 4, T25W: 1, GC: 8.9

BYU modeled extremely closely with Wisconsin. That one extra loss by the Badgers has them behind the Cougars for now, but that may change going forward as the Cougars SOS starts to slip. They modeled at 15, so right on.
13 #Oklahoma 9-1
SOS: 109, QW: 2, T25W: 0, GC: 15.5

The #Sooners got the WF treatment for losing last week & they fell well outside the Top 10. They modeled at 13 so this is spot on. W/ a SOS that bad, the GC & QWs have to make up for it & they just aren't there right now.
12 #OleMiss 8-2
SOS: 27, QW: 3, T25W: 2, GC: 10.7

OleMiss has poor GC, yes, but the rest of that resume is golden. That is what has them where they are. They modeled at 12 so this is exactly as the process prescribed for the Rebels.
11 #Baylor 8-2
SOS: 62, QW: 3, T25W: 2, GC: 15.5

#SicEm has a very similar resume as #OleMiss, worse SOS (not bad though), but much better GC. That is what has them above Ole Miss right now.
10 #WakeForest 9-1
SOS: 70, QW: 3, T25W: 1, GC: 15.6

The #GoDeacs SOS continues to rise, so does their QWs. As it does, their resume will continue to look better and their ranking will continue to rise. They modeled at 10 so this was on target.
9 #OkState 9-1
SOS: 43, QW: 3, T25W: 1, GC: 15.8

The #GoPokes modeled at 8 so this is right where they land according to the process in place for 8 years. If they continue to win, they'll continue to rise. SOS is good, GC is fair & they have multiple QWs. Good shape.
8 #NotreDame 9-1
SOS: 38, QW: 3, T25W: 1, GC: 13.8

The #Irish have a very similar resume as OkState. Only reason they are higher is that SOS is slightly better. That's really it. Its that simple. Modeled at 7 so this again is spot on.
7 #MichiganState 9-1
SOS: 92, QW: 2, T25W: 1, GC: 12.1

The #Spartans modeled at 9, so this is more off than usual but still not surprising. Their resume is worse than NotreDame and Oklahoma State, but that one W vs Michigan is keeping them afloat. Another loss & they'll tumble.
6 #Michigan 9-1
SOS: 49, QW: 4, T25W: 1, GC: 18.6

#GoBlue is ever so close to jumping Cincinnati. They actually modeled to do so this week being modeled at 5. Keep a close eye here. The Wolverines resume is strong.
5 #Cincinnati 10-0
SOS: 123, QW: 2, T25W: 1, GC: 23.0

The #Bearcats SOS is horrid & continues to slide. Their GC is one of the best in the poll and will keep the conversation interesting, but they will most likely stay on the outside. Just not enuf in that resume w/out help.
4 #OhioState 9-1
SOS: 85, QW: 3, T25W: 0, GC: 26.1

The #Buckeyes SOS will continue to take leaps and bounds & they continue to have the 2nd best GC in the poll. Good QWs & have the opportunity to add T25Ws. They control their playoff picture.
3 #Oregon 9-1
SOS: 107, QW: 3, T25W: 1, GC: 12.7

#GoDucks is holding on to that 3 spot just so slightly. The #Buckeyes although losing the H2H to Oregon has a schedule that will allow for a much better resume. Watch OSU jump Oregon in the next few weeks. If chalk holds.
2 #Alabama 9-1
SOS: 72, QW: 2, T25W: 2, GC: 26.0

#Bama's SOS isnt great, but its ok. They have 2 QWs, 2 T25Ws and one of the best GC numbers in the poll. They are solidly here and have the opportunity to earn the 1 seed if they win out.
1 #Georgia 10-0
SOS: 39, QW: 5, T25W: 1, GC: 31.1

#UGA has once again the best resume of them all. They can afford a loss & still comfortably make the playoff, that's how good the resume is.

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More from @cfb_professor

3 Nov
Ok, lets talk #CFBPlayoff Poll. Time is limited this morning so lets just run through the Top 15. For those of you who signed up as a patron (thank you) or those who have followed long; you know the drill. There is no eye test. The committee uses a well defined process. 🧵
If you read this on Monday, last night was all old news and you already knew what to expect. If you like the suspense of the four letter network's reveal show be warned. #SpoilerAlert
15 #BYU
SOS: 44, QW: 5, T25W: 0, GC: 4.9

#BYU modeled at 17, so no surprise here. Good SOS, Tied for the most QWs in the poll. Game Control is low, but with a SOS in the Top 50, they'll get a pass. No surprise at 15.
Read 20 tweets
29 Jul
So far everything Ive commented on in the realm of conference expansion has been make believe. Just day dreams. I did a little reading tho & wanted to go thru what is reality & most importantly, why? Ill be going thru all remaining P5 confs to shed light on their situation. #CFB
First, lets take a look at the #ACC. You can ignore anything you read regarding #NotreDame or any of the the #ACC schools leaving. Just keep right on scrolling, bc it isn’t happening. Why not? The #ACC has a grant of rights agreement which extends until 2036. (continued)
No school is going to be putting their TV revenue on the line for the next 15 yrs. Just wont happen. By the end of this grant of rights agreement tho, the #ACC will be making nearly half of what the #BigTen & #SEC will be in TV revenue (only $34 Million per team in ’19). (cont)
Read 16 tweets
20 Nov 19
Version 3 of the #CFBPlayoff rankings were released last night. What you expected? If youve followed along since early Oct you know the process. You werent surprised. For the rest of you, lets take a look & compare to what was projected using the same process used for 5 yrs.
First off, why does the committee use this process? Think about it. 14 busy guys make up this committee. They have roughly 60 hrs from when the last game ends on Sat to when they need to have this Top 25 created on Tues. If they evaluate only 30 teams to get that 25, how much
time is adequate to evaulate? 1 hr? Thats 30 hrs of evaluation. Half the time is gone & no one has slept. The process of getting a consensus out of 14 people hasnt even started. Thats why this process is kept so simple, & its why they have a defined predictable process.
Read 29 tweets

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