Thread by @SDullien

During the first #Covid19 wave, Germany was seen as an example for swift and effective action and managed the pandemic better than others.
In this fourth wave, we are seriously behind the curve and the rest of the world wonders what went wrong. A T. 1/

https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1461861221850918913?s=20

In the spring of 2020, the pictures from Italy led to a very quick reaction by German politicians. Contacts were limited and retail businesses as well as restaurants and hotels closed before the virus spread broadly. 2/

The government of Angela Merkel (with the vice-chancellor Olaf Scholz) quickly summoned the heads of the Länder and imposed an (overall) common approach in the crisis. 3/

Germany managed to get through the first wave with less fatalities and less infections (per capita) than most other European countries. What is more, restrictions were less severe than in other countries. 4/

During that first wave, the #UK demonstrated what a delay in fighting the pandemic meant. Boris Johnson was slow to react, only to get the worst of all worlds: He had to lockdown harder, and still more people died. 5/

The economic fall-out in Germany during the first wave came mainly from disrupted supply chains when manufacturing businesses in other EU countries closed down manufacturing businesses and parts were missing in German manufacturing. 6/

The management of the second and third wave in Germany was already much worse. There was a cacaphony between the parties in federal government and the Länder (federal states) governments. 7/

Single politicians tried to distinguish themselves either by promising to ease restrictions or delaying contact restrictions, ignoring the fact that you longer you wait, the longer you will need to lockdown to get infection numbers down again. 8/

In early Novemeber 2020, instead of again locking down hard but for a short time, a “lockdown light” was tried with only restaurants closed. This lockdown light was not really taken seriously by the business sector and actually during this time, 9/

the use of remote working was used less than in the summer 2020 (when there were no restrictions). Infections continued to rise and a more severe lock-down was imposed in December 2020. 10/

In March 2021, with the third wave approaching, the federal government and the Länder agreed on a complicated, but actually quite ridiculous opening scheme which included opening steps INDEPENDENT from actual infection dynamics. 11/

It never came to that as infections again rose strongly at that time. Germany had to prolong the restrictions. In the end, the second and third wave hit Germany about as badly as other European countries. 12/

Yet, different from the Western European peers, Germany did not use the summer to get vaccination rates up to a level which would have helped to manage the third wave well. 13/

Instead, in the election campaign, no party wanted to antagonize those sceptical of vaccinations and all parties tried to get the votes of those who were fed up by the pandemic. In the televised national debates, all main candidates spoke out 14/

(albeit with different wording) against new lockdowns, with some actually promising “no new lockdowns”. Some proposed specific “freedom days” irrespective of the future path of the pandemic – as if a freedom day would get rid of the virus. 15/

The run-up to the latest wave fell into the last weeks before the federal elections, and #Covid19 was mostly ignored in the campaigns. After the election, complicated coalition talks followed, and again, no one really discussed the rising infection numbers. 16/

Instead, several Länder governments (from different ends of the political spectrum) repealed measures such as mask mandates in school despite rising case numbers (already expoentially at that time). 17/

Between the acting federal government and the newly elected government, no one felt really responsible, and once hospital beds filled up, a finger-pointing began. 18/

While enough vaccine has been there for booster vaccines for all and for vaccinating the youth (and data from Israel has early pointed on the need for boosters), the debate was badly delayed and actually vaccine centres closed. 19/

In my eyes, one problem was that politicians showed too little forward-looking leadership and focused too much on opinion polls on #Covid19 restrictions (which are a lagging and volatile indicator to infections – when infections are low, people want less restrictions, 20/

when infections are high, they say that politicians should have tightened restrictions much more).
As Boris Johnson in 2020, German politicians this time wasted much time and the damage is now seen. 21/

Now, the fourth wave is set to hit Germany as badly as some of the hardest hit Central and Eastern European countries while in fact it would have been possible to get the pandemic to a certain extent controlled as France or Portugal have shown. 22/

If the new government does not manage to act now decisively and quickly, this will badly tarnish its record before they have really started to govern – and frankly, I would not see why they should then be reelected four years down the road. 23/

While none of the parties has really decisively run a consistent stance of hitting out for a new wave, a specific problem might be the @fdp : During the pandemic, they have shown a specific resistance against infection protection. 24/

One of their leading politicians has publicly boasted to having visited illegal bars during lockdown, and there has been a lot of talk about getting rid of mask mandates.
For the sake of Germany, I can only hope that they will behave responsibly now that they are in power. /END