🛑.@NewYorkFed / @BIS_org Collaboration Huge
China is already out in front with its CBDC. Socialising its FinTech and layering onto DCEP is what I call an App Store Moment positively Intertwining The Fortunes Of China's Tech Sector and its new Digital Currency in one. @SecYellen
and @federalreserve Powell and many others didn't really care about a digital dollar 12 months ago, but policy stance has changed as has approach to #crypto broadly. @GaryGensler appeared hostile initially and then did a volte face. In recent days China has switched attention
from targetting #BTC as a vehicle for money laundering, switching its focus to DEfI etc. China wants its DCEP to offer the best of both worlds, A Sovereign Reserve Currency, underpinned by 1.3 Bio Digial consumers promoting Yuan adoption via its digital wallets with its tech
sitting on top of a digital currency in a world where Global Institutions are massively O/weight Dollars and U/Weight Yuan. This dual threat presented to traditional reserve currencies is also a threat to the crypto ecosystem. The Fed and BIS aligning, is not a vote in favour
of ignoring the threat presented by china's centralised system, in dee dits the opposite. This threat is bigger than any one regulatory/financial regime, it required the weight of 135 members of the BIS and the markets arm of the FED to work together. Its a call to arms.
China's DCEP will offer Money properties, wehre Bitcoin is seen as a digital competitor but more importantly a threat to the DCEP project, with PBOC mindful of their 2014/17 experince when #BTC popularity threatened Yuan Sovereignty. Alternately where real value is seen in the
crypto universe, namely #DEFI China has taken huge steps to invert the reward structure in its tech sector in favour of the stakeholder over the previous winner takes all shareholder approach. Layering this technology stack ontop of the new Digital Currency, presents an invesment
opportunity on one side and a challenge to the nasient Crypto Ecosystem encompassed in Defi on the other. Its a race to the bottom, This is an all out fight to the death between the Dollar, Fiat, RMb and Crypto. #BTC and #ETH very vulnerable.G7 will forsake privacy for taxation
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Crypto underestimates the vision of China's Digital Currency Ambition.
Its about inserting a digital RMB into the global reserve currency complex while upending
Dollar hegemony and supreamacy. The vision will allow China open its Capital A/c and fund the massive deficits accrued by semi state enterprises. I forsee the Yuan as a stable coin, leading to a collapse in FX volatility and a genuine use case for RMB mass adoption via its
customer wallet and digital currency as a vehicle for day to day transactions in the global payment system. Recent movement to emphasize stakeholders over shareholders in Chinese FinTech suggests that the tool that China used to play catch up with the west post joining WTO will
VOLTE FACE
18 months ago, not one member of FED gave a damn about the digital Dollar.
Why the change of heart. China launches it CBDC soon and despite the chaos im confident it will launch and fly well. 8% REER apprecaition since covid is a clear statment of intent by Chinese.
China began its DCEP project after 1.0 trio outflows from 2014/2017 with a large proportion of those outflows via stablecoins and #BTC. China's ambition is to upend Dollar hegemony, the evergrande bankruptcy is a perfect case in point with international capital markets concerned
she will make her offshore Dollar bond repayments.
China cannot hope to defend its borderss with a weak currency. Outflows have been for china and most other EMFX a true doom loop and the evolution of a CBDC is PBOC's attempt to stem that capital flow offshore.
be resisted. As Jens highlights, China's FX reserves collapsed in 2015/16/17, falling 1.0 Trio USD. PBOC MU, the head of the digital lab told us at HK blockchain week in 2019 that the popularity of #bitcoin during this period lead the PBOC to fear for sovereignty of the Yuan. So
China decided to launch it's digital Yuan project as all the outflows were leaving the country. They broke the dollar peg in aug 2015, which crushed US stocks, and pivoted to tracking the CFETS basket a precursor to DCEP. China has changed its FX regime on avg every 5 years.
Irreconsilable
US twin deficit's & Fed policy point to continued dollar weakness.
Fed adopted new inflation regime targeting 2.5% AIT.
China, tied No1 holder of $DXY reserves intend's to offer its DCEP/CBDC as a dollar alternative leading CB's to diversify away from $USD
Eurozone is caught in a pincer movement where HICP is collapsing and Project Digital and EU 750 Bio bond will if they are to be successful require tolerance of validating inflows. Increasing QE further risks zombification of EZ banks which are already in trouble.
Europe needs
a magic bullet. Talking down the Euro when @Lagarde and @Paschald highlight the urgent need to adopt a digital Euro and at the same time welcome europe's forthcoming 750 Bio 'Safe Asset' common bond which will inevitably lead much needed inflows if they are to validate Europe's
China Outflanked Trump. The Game Is Lost.
Trump is a flailing desperate drunk, swinging for China on Trade & Covid. WH went ''all-in'' on China trade purchases ( wont happen ), meanwhile Covid unwind has been a disaster ( x2 dip ?) leaving Trump 2020 chances almost negligible.
Contrast with China, now on road to recovery with monetary stimulus negligible vs FED which might do more (Clarida) & likely congress slow on more fiscal. Exploding dificits & easy Fed will weigh on dollar. Meanwhile China declared a war of its own, building a tech revolution &
then a ''call to arm's'' telling its people to get on board the stock market. yield differential & state sponsored tech explosion ( Nasdaq 95-00 ) will lift the Yuan driving a broad dollar drop. A weaker dollar boosts global growth ( NB 2009 it helped start a stock mkt rally
Evidence China Manipulates S+P
I've argued China bought dips 17 X from March Asian lows. bit.ly/2VQ4trY Price action today same MO-> rally on little news, coincidentally rallies also. @WSJ concludes same. Asia Buys While U Sleep on.wsj.com/2KnmM2i
Why China Buys US Stocks
Aug 2015 Yuan Deval established a direct causal effect between weaker Yuan and weaker US stocks. Thru my career market participants would say that when when rolls over, correlations converge to 1 likely due to globalisation inter-connectivity. Thus
as china exported #COVID19 , global disconnectedness generated negative tail risks and blowback, opening China up on many front's. The negative export loop where exporting #COVID19 lead to a global pandemic and a collapse in its export's increasing Yuan / interdependence.