Thread by @althecat

The latest long range forecast for the Western Pacific contains a couple of disturbances which could turn into landfalling storms in the South China Sea. The seeding ground for the cyclonic storm you can see in the second image here has flared up over the past 24 hours.

This is Invest 95W to the east of the Philippines over the past 24 hours.

This simulated storm is still a long way out in the forecast, and is forecast to be small, and in this simulation is not expected to make landfall and dissipate before reaching Taiwan.

It is also unusual but not unheard of. The typhoon season generally ends in September.

"On 18 December, the small but violent typhoon overtook the Task Force while many of the ships were attempting to refuel. Many of the ships were caught near the center of the storm and buffeted by extreme seas and hurricane force winds...."

history.navy.mil/research/libra…

"...Three destroyers, USS Hull, USS Spence, and USS Monaghan, capsized and went down with practically all hands, while a cruiser, five aircraft carriers, and three destroyers suffered serious damage."

This storm is small, and its timing is similar. Here it is on 18th December.