"Americans increased the Defence Budget to the tune of USD 200 Billion per year between 1980 and 1987" #MacNamara.
One must learn Crisis Management from Military leaders and Geostrategic Affairs Experts.
Leadership, management and entrepreneurship can all benefit from wargaming and decision-making did on the battlefield.
An interdisciplinary approach to problem-solving helps a lot!
#MacNamara is right about three things when he sums up a crisis situation 1. Misinformation exacerbates a crisis 2. Emotionalism can ruin strategic decision-making 3. First information received in the event of a crisis is always wrong leading to an error of judgement
I wish bankers and economists in charge of systemic risk management would listen to MacNamara advice.
They should learn Game Theory more than any other subject. #Nash
Breakdown in communications can lead to misinformation.
However, too much of mass communication in this day and age of digital technology and decision-making platforms can lead to more confusion and distraction.
Have to distinguish noise from signals.
Coordination of policy helps to fight a crisis like situation.
Situational awareness is important.
We get into a psychological exercise, where it becomes arduous to distinguish between the right perceptions and our misperceptions.
Actually, policymakers(fiscal, income, macroprudential, trade, industrial and monetary) such as central banks,& other fiduciary/legal risk management authorities should draw inferences from what came to be known as permissive action links lock coded in ICBMs, by the US Military.
At least two agents should agree on the description, definition and interpretation of an #emergence of a #crisis situation.
In economics and financial markets, that takes us in the direction of #complexity modelling.
One has to be a born leader to judge his own instincts.
In times of crisis, one should look internally to seek advice before going to others.
This is the cusp and gift of reasoning.
Not allowing our shadow personality to weaken us in panic is objectivity.
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Positive Real Interest Rates are required to reduce inflation.
Negative Real IR's do not help rein prices.
This little much cannot be understood by the central bankers in high-inflation economies?
That works if the source of inflation is the money supply growth due to the deficit
However, if the source of #inflation is supply-side shocks, then raising policy interest rates might hurt more.
For e.g. the Exchange rate shock which brings in imported inflation into the economy needs forex supply to counter the import/outflow demand.
IR is the painful lever
yes, a higher CB Rate should technically curb aggregate demand and expenditures in the economy.
It can reduce the domestic money supply as bank borrowing declines and thereby reduces the monetary base.
Which should taper the imports & adjust the Current a/c.
Shock Therapy 101
Forex reserves supply should be matched by domestic money supply to counter inflation.
If NFA grows, the monetary base will grow
If NFA falls, the monetary base will fall
That is how a currency board system should work.
The local monetary policy is tied to an anchor currency.
The monetary base has two components
NFA Net Foreign Assets
NDA Net Domestic Assets
NDA +NFA = Monetary Base
What #Turkey needs is to #peg its currency to an anchor currency. #Currency Peg can be fixed or crawling.
They can follow many examples, with or w/o capital #controls.
It can choose from an expansive list that includes Malaysia, Nigeria, Argentina, Hong Kong or those in the GCC.
Two problems were identified with the education of #STEM based subjects.
Instructors at unis tend to pass on only #methodology, proof-writing & all the loaded #mathematical language of #symbols working in the backdrop.
But, ignore the #history & #philosophy of hard sciences.
Many A-level students study physics and get good grades, but they know little to nothing about Galileo, Maxwell, or Newton or the other greats!
Engineers do mathematics but have no clue about Euler, Laplace, Gauss, Fermat, Bernoulli and their personal rivalries and lives.
The same holds true for economists
No student can get a degree in economics without studying Keynes.
But, has anyone ever read about his personal life?
Keynes had a voracious appetite for stock trading, was sexually not straight, and was a non-economics degree holder.
Private Equity requires a good understanding of Finance and especially sector-specific finance such as Real Estate Finance and Investments and so on.
In my opinion, the techniques used to model PE transactions have a lot in common with those that are applied to Listed Equity.
It has some maths in it, but nothing out of the world!
You are an entry-level risk analyst at a financial institution working in investments/portfolio management?
What you need to do to make yourself relevant.
This thread is about that....
Do not => 1. Don't brag about your degree/uni 2. Don't brag about your mathematical skills 3. Don't brag about your academic knowledge 4. Don't brag about your being proactive compared to Audit or Compliance or any other back-office unit
Dos => 1. Do bring yourself down to the level of those engaged in the front offices/sales, etc. 2. Do try to understand the Enterprise IT Systems, Enterprise and Business Architecture 3. Do integrate your silo with the ERM Program 4. Do always compare theory with reality.
Always do study at a university which has an influential alumnus.
Networking helps more than anything else when you are looking for a job or an opportunity to undertake a startup.
Please, be mindful of the fact that degree is just a decorative sketch framed for the walls.
Listening to a speech given by Late #Lee#Kuan Yew,
where he was advising undergrads about the paths they should pursue in 1994.
For Mr Lee, the #Oxbridge epoch was well over back in the 90s.
The #Yanks and their universities dominate the global corporate world and job networks.
The most interesting aspect of this speech made by then Minister Mentor Lee was that he encouraged Far-Eastern Asian Students such as the Singaporeans to do a first degree in Electrical Engineering and later back it up with an Ivy League #MBA.
What superb advice it was!