[Thread] #JoePhaahla: 1. WC currently has the highest nr of new #COVID19 cases, followed by KZN 2. Gauteng has officially excited its 4th (#Omicron) wave 3. All other 8 provinces have reached their Omicron peaks and new cases on a decline
2. #JoePhaahla: 1. Although there is a decline in new #COVID19 cases in all provinces, the decline is slower than what the increase 2. That means the Omicron wave is declining at a slower pace than what it had increased
3. #JoePhaahla: 1. There has been a 5% reduction in reported deaths in SA over the past 7 days 2. There has been a 27% decline in new #COVID19 cases over the past 7 days
4. #JoePhaahla: 1. There is been a 6.3% reduction in hospital admissions in SA over the past 7 days (although 3 provinces saw small increases) 2. The test positivity rate for new #COVID19 cases = declining (Thursday = 14% vs 25-30% in mid-Dec)
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[Thread] 1. What's happening with SA #Omicron hospital + death data?
Waasila Jassat, @nicd_sa:
"Decoupling" between cases, hospitalisations/deaths = continue.
Black: new #COVID19 cases
Grey: hospitalisations
Red: deaths
Cases higher than Wave 1-3, admissions/deaths = lower
2. #Omicron started in Gauteng + spread 2 other provinces within a week. With previous waves the spread 2 other parts of the country took much longer. So with #Omicron the peaks of provinces' hospitalisations/deaths = much closer to each other.
3. #Omicron hospital admissions in SA peaked at about 60% of the #Delta wave and deaths at about 14-15%
JUST IN [Thread] 1. @SAHPRA1 is reviewing 6 #COVID19#vaccine applications for emergency use authorisation (called Section 21 approval), including new applications for #Sputnik Lite (1 shot of the 2-shot #Sputnik V jab) and #Novavax.
2. Four of the 6 #COVID19#vaccine applications are for 2 of the same jabs. So different companies applied 4 approval 4 the same vaccines: 1. #Sputnik (Dr Reddy's Labs, Lamar International) 2. #Sinopharm (MC Pharma, Lamar International; Lamar also applied for Sputnik Lite)
3. On 18 Oct @SAHPRA1 rejected Lamar International's application 4 #Sputnik because of concerns that it might increase HIV negative people's risk of #HIV infection. The application remains open. Lamar needs to submit data to prove the jab is safe.
@Dr_Groome of @nicd_sa: 1. Almost 99% of all new #COVID19 cases in SA now = #Omicron (Omicron = red on table, see Nov/Dec) 2. Extremely low proportions of other variants are currently detected through sequencing
2. @Dr_Groome: 1. SA reached its #Omicron peak on 15 Dec (22,588 new #COVID19 cases on that day) 2. Reported cases = only +/- 10% of the actual cases 3. There's been a small increase in new cases over Xmas, but we have seen persistent decreases in terms of 7 day moving averages
3. @Dr_Groome: 1. Previous waves were longer and waves started and ended a few weeks apart in different provinces. With #Omicron the wave is much steeper and provinces followed each other much quicker 2. Gauteng (where SA's Omicron wave started) has exited its 4th (Omicron) wave
[Thread] 1. From TONIGHT (Fri), 8pm, adult #COVID19 hospitalisation data in SA will be available on @HealthZA's dashboard.
Milani Wolmarans, @HealthZA, #EVDS:
The data will be categorised into 3 types of patients: 1. Fully vaccinated 2. Partially vaccinated 3. Unvaccinated
2. What's happening so far?
Of 7,826 adults in hospital because of #COVID19:
- 5,731 (73%) = unvaccinated
- 321 (4%) = partially vaccinated (this = lower than fully vaccinated as there are far fewer partially than fully vaxxed people in total)
- 1,774 (22.6%) = fully vaxxed
3. What % of adults (18+) have been fully + partially vaccinated?
JUST IN [Thread] 1. Early findings from 2 SA studies suggest #Omicron has a much higher rate of asymptomatic "carriage" (#COVID19 without symptoms) than previous variants and this is likely an important reason why the variant spreads so fast.
Preprint: bit.ly/3q8NykS
2. Which studies are findings based on? 1. Ubuntu: A sub-Saharan #Africa study that measures the effectiveness of #Moderna's #COVID19 jab in #HIV+ people (all initial sites in SA) 2. A sub-study of #Sisonke, conducted among SA #HealthWorkers, that measures #JnJ's effectiveness
3. Neither of the studies = designed 2 look @ asymptomatic infections specifically, rather 2 measure breakthrough infections, immunogenicity + effectiveness of jabs in HIV+ and other groups, but they do give useful info on how #Omicron's spread differs from other variants.
@ProfAbdoolKarim: 1. If cases continue 2 decline @ the current rate, the wave will end in +/- 10-11 days 2. How will we know it's the end? @nicd_sa uses 30 cases/100,000 in the past 7 days for the beginning/end of a wave
2. If the #Omicron wave does end in +/-10-11 days, it will have been just over half the length of previous waves: 1. Wave 1, 2, 3: About 75 days long 2. Wave 4 (Omicron) likely to be 40-50 days long
3. Can SA expect a next #COVID19 wave? @ProfAbdoolKarim: 1. Given the consistent 3 month gap we get in SA between waves, the 5th wave can be expected, if it is going to occur, in May this year 2. Of course, a new variant may throw this estimation out the window