[Thread] 1. From TONIGHT (Fri), 8pm, adult #COVID19 hospitalisation data in SA will be available on @HealthZA's dashboard.
Milani Wolmarans, @HealthZA, #EVDS:
The data will be categorised into 3 types of patients: 1. Fully vaccinated 2. Partially vaccinated 3. Unvaccinated
2. What's happening so far?
Of 7,826 adults in hospital because of #COVID19:
- 5,731 (73%) = unvaccinated
- 321 (4%) = partially vaccinated (this = lower than fully vaccinated as there are far fewer partially than fully vaxxed people in total)
- 1,774 (22.6%) = fully vaxxed
3. What % of adults (18+) have been fully + partially vaccinated?
4. The new dashboard page will break hospitalisations down into severity of admission, so the dashboard will indicate who, in each of the patient categories, have been admitted to: 1. A general #COVID19 ward 2. A high care COVID19 unit 3. A COVID19 intensive care unit
5. What's happening so far?
Of 661 ICU admissions:
- 396 (60%) = unvaccinated
- 37 (5.6%) = partially vaccinated (1 shot of #Pfizer)
- 228 (34.5%) = fully vaccinated
6. The dashboard will have tables that categorise hospitalisations according 2 vaccination status + sex: 1. Red = unvaccinated; orange = partially vaccinated; green = fully vaccinated 2. Left graph = women; right graph = men 3. More women than men have been admitted to hospital
7. Vaccinations will also be categorised according to vaccination status and age:
1. The (left) graph shows, as expected, by far the most hospitalisations are among people for 60+ 2. In the 60+ age group, 64% (2047/3200) of hospital admissions = unvaccinated
8. There will also be visual representations of hospitalisations, broken down into vaccination status and type of admission:
The graphs show that, for serious disease (high care/ICU), we have roughly double the number of admissions among unvaccinated vs. vaccinated people
[Thread] 1. What's happening with SA #Omicron hospital + death data?
Waasila Jassat, @nicd_sa:
"Decoupling" between cases, hospitalisations/deaths = continue.
Black: new #COVID19 cases
Grey: hospitalisations
Red: deaths
Cases higher than Wave 1-3, admissions/deaths = lower
2. #Omicron started in Gauteng + spread 2 other provinces within a week. With previous waves the spread 2 other parts of the country took much longer. So with #Omicron the peaks of provinces' hospitalisations/deaths = much closer to each other.
3. #Omicron hospital admissions in SA peaked at about 60% of the #Delta wave and deaths at about 14-15%
JUST IN [Thread] 1. @SAHPRA1 is reviewing 6 #COVID19#vaccine applications for emergency use authorisation (called Section 21 approval), including new applications for #Sputnik Lite (1 shot of the 2-shot #Sputnik V jab) and #Novavax.
2. Four of the 6 #COVID19#vaccine applications are for 2 of the same jabs. So different companies applied 4 approval 4 the same vaccines: 1. #Sputnik (Dr Reddy's Labs, Lamar International) 2. #Sinopharm (MC Pharma, Lamar International; Lamar also applied for Sputnik Lite)
3. On 18 Oct @SAHPRA1 rejected Lamar International's application 4 #Sputnik because of concerns that it might increase HIV negative people's risk of #HIV infection. The application remains open. Lamar needs to submit data to prove the jab is safe.
@Dr_Groome of @nicd_sa: 1. Almost 99% of all new #COVID19 cases in SA now = #Omicron (Omicron = red on table, see Nov/Dec) 2. Extremely low proportions of other variants are currently detected through sequencing
2. @Dr_Groome: 1. SA reached its #Omicron peak on 15 Dec (22,588 new #COVID19 cases on that day) 2. Reported cases = only +/- 10% of the actual cases 3. There's been a small increase in new cases over Xmas, but we have seen persistent decreases in terms of 7 day moving averages
3. @Dr_Groome: 1. Previous waves were longer and waves started and ended a few weeks apart in different provinces. With #Omicron the wave is much steeper and provinces followed each other much quicker 2. Gauteng (where SA's Omicron wave started) has exited its 4th (Omicron) wave
[Thread] #JoePhaahla: 1. WC currently has the highest nr of new #COVID19 cases, followed by KZN 2. Gauteng has officially excited its 4th (#Omicron) wave 3. All other 8 provinces have reached their Omicron peaks and new cases on a decline
2. #JoePhaahla: 1. Although there is a decline in new #COVID19 cases in all provinces, the decline is slower than what the increase 2. That means the Omicron wave is declining at a slower pace than what it had increased
3. #JoePhaahla: 1. There has been a 5% reduction in reported deaths in SA over the past 7 days 2. There has been a 27% decline in new #COVID19 cases over the past 7 days
JUST IN [Thread] 1. Early findings from 2 SA studies suggest #Omicron has a much higher rate of asymptomatic "carriage" (#COVID19 without symptoms) than previous variants and this is likely an important reason why the variant spreads so fast.
Preprint: bit.ly/3q8NykS
2. Which studies are findings based on? 1. Ubuntu: A sub-Saharan #Africa study that measures the effectiveness of #Moderna's #COVID19 jab in #HIV+ people (all initial sites in SA) 2. A sub-study of #Sisonke, conducted among SA #HealthWorkers, that measures #JnJ's effectiveness
3. Neither of the studies = designed 2 look @ asymptomatic infections specifically, rather 2 measure breakthrough infections, immunogenicity + effectiveness of jabs in HIV+ and other groups, but they do give useful info on how #Omicron's spread differs from other variants.
@ProfAbdoolKarim: 1. If cases continue 2 decline @ the current rate, the wave will end in +/- 10-11 days 2. How will we know it's the end? @nicd_sa uses 30 cases/100,000 in the past 7 days for the beginning/end of a wave
2. If the #Omicron wave does end in +/-10-11 days, it will have been just over half the length of previous waves: 1. Wave 1, 2, 3: About 75 days long 2. Wave 4 (Omicron) likely to be 40-50 days long
3. Can SA expect a next #COVID19 wave? @ProfAbdoolKarim: 1. Given the consistent 3 month gap we get in SA between waves, the 5th wave can be expected, if it is going to occur, in May this year 2. Of course, a new variant may throw this estimation out the window