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Jan 18 • 3 tweets • 3 min read
Everybody knows that the #COVID19 #pandemic true toll FAR exceeds official numbers -- but by how much?
MORE
nature.com/articles/d4158…
2/ Officially some 5 million people worldwide have died of #COVID19 -- a figure that reflects govts' approved reports. Folks @TheEconomist reckon the true toll is closer to 18 million, possibly >22M. In Seattle @IHME puts it around 13M, maybe as high as 17M.
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3/ Depending on which reckonings one accepts for #COVID19 deaths so far, here's how our #pandemic stacks up against the major #flu pandemics.
(Note: Even the highest estimates still don't put COVID on a par with 14th C #Plague or HIV/AIDS -- yet.)

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

Laurie Garrett Profile picture
Jan 13
Reaction to #SCOTUS decision from @POTUS #JoeBiden
"As a result of the Court’s decision, it is now up to States & individual employers to determine whether to make their workplaces as safe as possible for employees, & whether their businesses will be safe for consumers..."
MORE
2/
 "...during this #pandemic by requiring employees to take the simple & effective step of getting #vaccinated . The Court has ruled that my administration cannot use the authority granted to it by Congress to require this measure, but that does not stop me from..."
MORE
3/
 "...using my voice as President to advocate for employers to do the right thing to protect Americans’ health & economy. I call on business leaders to immediately join those who have already stepped up – including 1/3 of Fortune 100 companies – & institute #vaccination .."
MORE
Read 5 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
Jan 13
FLASH
#SCOTUS hands down its ruling on #Biden admin #COVID19 safety mandates, and it's classic anti-Federalist "law" that could open the floodgates on all public health efforts. The majority of Justices ruled that Biden can mandate #vaccination and/or masking in...
MORE
2/ healthcare facilities that receive fedl $ (#Medicare & #Medicaid), BUT can NOT issue mandates in the private sector. Specifically, #SCOTUS blocked #Biden reg that employers w/100+ workers require either 💉 or 😷 of all staff.
Majority opinion:
“Although #Congress ..."
MORE
3/
 "...has indisputably given #OSHA the power to regulate occupational dangers, it has not given that agency the power to regulate public health more broadly. Requiring the #vaccination of 84M Americans, selected simply because they work for employers with more..."
MORE
Read 6 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
Jan 13
Mundane life in NYC as #Omicron rages:
- subways are shutting down all over the place because too many @MTA workers are home sick
- a snow "bomb cyclone" is forecast for Sunday & nobody's sure there will be enough snow plow operators to clear streets
MORE
nytimes.com/2021/12/29/nyr…
2/
 - so many @FDNY and EMT personnel are out sick that response teams are down 30% & 911 operators say please don't call unless it really, really is an ER
- wind chill on Saturday will be 13 F -- cancel that safe outdoor dinner date
MORE
nytimes.com/2022/01/06/nyr…
3/
 - you bought tickets to concerts, plays months ago: now check daily to see which are cancelled, or resched
- friends ask if it makes sense to book a wedding/bar mitzvah/graduation party in May, or June, even July
- temp falls below 30 & you find K95 masks keep the face warm
Read 5 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
Jan 10
Let's compare NYC & Hong Kong #COVID19 experiences.

NYC population = 8.4 million; HK = 7.5M.
NYC is averaging >40K cases/day, totaling nearly 2M since Jan2020, with 35,883 deaths.
HK has had zero-to-7 daily COVID cases over last 8 mos, 12K since Jan2020 w/200 deaths.
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2/ What's the difference?

HK has strict border controls, testing, tracing and mandatory quarantines in hotels & detention centers, under observation, with jail for violators.
NYC, like rest of USA, has near-nil track/trace/test/quarantine in use. NY "control" - persuasion.
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3/ Of course, China shut the border with HK, sealing the City off from Mainland. And over last 2 yrs PRC has imposed a police state on HK. People have no choice but to obey mask, vaccine, quarantine laws.
But, most vaccination is with lousy Sinopharm & Sinovac which offer...
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Read 5 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
Jan 5
I strongly disagree. From a public health point-of-sale view the primary purpose of a #vaccine is to prevent infection and transmission. Clinically, it may be great to block disease, too. Goes to famed Salk vs Sabin debate on polio vaccines.
There are longstanding debates about use of the Salk (IPV) vs Sabin (oral) polio vaccine, for reasons explained well here by @profvrr :
virology.ws/2015/09/10/why…
But back in the 1960s Salk & Sabin debated which of their vaccines better blocked fecal transmission.
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With improved sanitation & clean drinking water polio spread is greatly reduced. But could both viruses cut not just disease in individuals, but also environmental contamination via feces? pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/6262150/
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Read 8 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
Jan 4
Gulp.
"The United States is headed for civil war & it cannot bear to face it. The political problems are both structural & immediate...The American political system has become so overwhelmed by anger that even the most basic tasks of govt are impossible."
theguardian.com/world/2022/jan…
2/ "The Capitol police have seen threats against members of #Congress ^ by 107%. Fred Upton, #Republican rep from Michigan, shared a message he had received: 'I hope you die. I hope everybody in your family dies.' And it’s not just politicians but anyone involved..."
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3/ "...in the running of the electoral system. Death threats have become a std aspect of the work life of election supervisors & school board membs. A third of poll workers said they felt unsafe."
I'd add that Public Health officials are resigning due to death threats.
Read 4 tweets

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