Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #riskon

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🎉 Lo ammetto, sono esaltato da questo mese di Gennaio che mi ha regalato forti emozioni e ottimi profit 🤑

Ma stamattina ho sentito un certo rimorso verso quel povero chair della #FED.

Questo thread è per te, Jerome 💙 🧵

📈 Posso soltanto provare a capire come ti senti, #jerome. La riapertura della Cina e i dati positivi sul CPI infiammano le #chart.

Sempre più investitori si buttano sui mercati senza pensare a come ti senti tu quando vedi una candela verde.


⚠️ Non parliamo poi dei mercati #riskon. Ma lo sai che nel settore #crypto ci sono praticamente soltanto i piccoli holders di #bitcoin che stanno comprando? Per non parlare di quello che succede sui futures: 495M di short liquidati.
Read 13 tweets
Lo que vamos a ver en los próximos 3 meses en los mercados va a ser histórico. Es la situación más preocupante que yo haya analizado jamás.

Me recuerda a la calma tensa de enero-febrero de 2020 pero peor. Porque ahora está en jaque el mercado de renta fija. 🧵
Por aquí no suelo compartir ni un tercio de mi trabajo. Lo siento. Lleva mucho tiempo. Y no es gratis. Trabaja tú o paga por él.
A los que no entienden y preguntan amablemente, mis disculpas. No puedo explicar todo. La mayor parte del conocimiento es gratis en internet. Pégate con él. O paga por él. Si no haces una de esas 2 cosas, no es tan importante para ti.
Read 17 tweets
Hello Friday and the week to date!

$TNX +3.1%
$TLT -1.95%
$HYG +1.6%

$SPX +2.1%
$SSEC +2.3%
$NIKK +2.05%
$DAX -1.1%

$USD +0.18%
$GOLD -0.17%

$WITC -3.85%
$NATGAS -9.9%
$COPPER +3.5$
#Bitcoin -3.2%

Let's dig into the 🧮 and the risk that is on!
With the USD ↘️ hard, Asia closed ↗️

$NIKK 28215 +0.55%
$SSEC 3262 +0.8%
$TWII 14583 +1.2%
$HSI 19380 +2.8% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2384 +0.35%
$IDX 7243 +0.15%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 694 +0.65%

India ↔️
$BSE 59722 +0.05%
Buyers are out in force in Europe ↗️

$DAX 13110 +1.6%
$FTSE 7367 +1.45%
$CAC 6219 +1.5%
$AEX 685 +1.6%
$IBEX 8045 +1.6%
$MIB 22089 +1.9%
$SMI 1083 +0.85%
$MOEX 2402 +0.5%

$VSTOXX 24.97 🔻🛗

$DAX range = 12437 - 13182 🐻 🩳
Read 11 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

1/7 🧵

Global Macro Review 08/14/2022

A big decline in $CPI to +8.5% y/y, ➕ the July services #PMI ↗️ ➕ #NFP ↗️, kept the 🔥 burning on risk assets - enough to lure the ♉️

Is this a new ♉️ market or the end of the 🐻 rally?

Let’s dig into the 🧮!

Equity volatility ↘️ across market and 🐻 Trend (T)

$VX 19.53 -1.62 bps
$VXN 25.18 -1.95 bps
$RVX 24.23 -1.07 bps
$VSTOXX 21.21 -1.64 bps
$VXEEM 19.45 -2.41 bps

Chart: $VXEEM lending support to $EEM 🆕 ♉️

US equity indices 🚀

$SPX +3.25% (w) +6.35% (T) 🆕 ♉️
$COMPQ +3.1% (w) +10.55% (T)
$IWM +5.0% (w) +12.5% (T)

Chart: $IWM - small caps have retraced nearly 50% of the 6-mo decline
Read 16 tweets
#RiskOn / #RiskOff Zde mé slíbené vysvětlení. Nevím co znamená RiskOn/Off pro jiné systémy nebo interpretace. Možná jsem mohl použít jiné názvy. Já to mám ale vžité už léta a prostě jsem to použil. Pokud se to používá i někde jinde, půjde na 100% o něco jiného než o co jde mě 1/n
Sledují mě tu stále nové a nové lidi a chápu, že to může působit možná až jako nějaké „čárymáry“. Že si tady tak zvesela měřím geo-politcké dění na SP500 a interpretuji to v grafech. Je to ale prostě úplně obráceně. Mě osobně přijde neuvěřitelné spíše to, že spousta 2/n
lidí/obchodníků něco střílí od boku jen na bázi toho, že si to myslí, že mají pocit. To mě k moodixu vlastně dovedlo. To nekonečné množství názorů, ego her. Vlastně hlavně ego her. Boj o to kdo trefí tohle dno, tuhle otočku, tenhle krach, tuhle rally a bude plácán po zádech. 3/n
Read 25 tweets
Hello Friday!

Week to date

$BTC -5.45%
$EUR -1.5%
$GOLD +0.75%
$USD +1.15%

$CAC -3.35%
$NIKK -2.8%
$COMPQ -2.55%
$KOPSI -1.6%

$GASO -4.2%
$WTIC -3.35%
$COFFEE -1.05%
$PLAT -3.1%
$COPPER +0.25%
$CORN +2.05%
$WHEAT +4.15%
$NATGAS +11.2%

$TNX +27.5 BPS

Let's dig into the 🧮!
After a ↘️ week, Asia closed Friday ↗️

$NIKK 26986 +0.35%
$SSEC 3252 +0.45%
$TWII 17285 +0.6%
$HSI 21857 +0.2%
$KOSPI 2700 +0.15%
$IDX 7210 +1.15% ⬅️

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7478 +0.45%

India ↗️
$BSE 59444 +0.7%
Europe catching a bid ↗️ into the weekend

$DAX 14321 +1.7%
$FTSE 7641 +1.2%
$CAC 6578 +1.8%
$AEX 727 +1.45%
$IBEX 8600 +1.55%
$MIB 24843 +2.2% ⬅️
$SMI 12465 +0.75%
$MOEX 2623 -0.5% 🪆

$VSTOXX 32.53
Read 11 tweets
Hello February! 🐰🐰

Biggest mistake of January?
Selling most of my $CRB +9.79% exposure

No 👀 back and 😭 over spilled 🥛

Time to grab the 🐯 by the #tail and dig into the 🧮!
Most of Asia celebrating 🐯

Good idea given January returns with $KOSPI -10.56%, $SSEC -7.65, and $NIKK -6.22%

Tuesday trading
$NIKK 27078 +0.3%
$BSE 58871 +0.8%
January returns for Euro area were ↘️ but better than USA and Asia

January: $DAX -2.6% and $CAC -2.15%

Early trade
$DAX 15599 +0.8%
$FTSE 7533 +0.9%
$CAC 7065 +0.95%
$AEX 762 +0.9%
$IBEX 8706 +1.1%
$MIB 27091 +1.05%
$SMI 12327 +0.8%
$MOEX 3561 +0.9% 🪆
Read 10 tweets
In preparation for my slot on #SquawkBox yesterday, I sent the guys a few slides as a synopsis of my last, detailed subscriber report for the discussion.

I called it #Pyromania. Feel free to take a look


#macro #bonds #commodities #dollar #inflation #centralbanks #fiscal
Is it possible to overkill an act of overkill? #JeromePowell & #JanetYellen seem set to let us find out.

Not that they're alone in their folly, of course. The #ECB is outodoing them handsomely, while the #bankofengland is breaking records stretching back to its founding, 327 years ago.
Read 10 tweets
So biggest casualty of #Fed warning on #US #economy y'day, was #Gold,which dropped 3% to $1951.90 an ounce,within minutes of #FedMinutes

Silver too fell below $28

Rout was not limited to precious metals--#Nasdaq sold off despite #Apple hitting $2 trillion market cap

#CrudeOil whipsawed in tight range with #WTI at $42.83

#Fed's take on economic downturn was nothing new&yet markets collapsed

Only asset which saw aggressive buying was US #Tbills,with 10 yr #bond #yield@ 0.665% Vs previous close of 0.685%

#Dollar had its best day in 2 months
So what does y'day's frenzied buying in #bonds indicate?Is the #RiskOn trade over?

Well,not quite--With $9 trillion of excess global #liquidity sloshing around due to coordinated Central Bank rate cuts,since #Covid_19, equities will move up,albeit with severe bouts of volatility
Read 7 tweets

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