Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Feb 16 17 tweets 16 min read
HAPPENING NOW: "War in #Europe started already more than 8 years ago when #Russia's annexation of part of #Ukraine took place" #Estonia FM @eliimets tells @CNASdc #CNAS2022
Signs #Russia pulling back from #Ukraine?

"At the moment we cannot talk about deescalation. It definitely takes quite some time to see" per #Estonia FM @eliimets to #CNAS2022

If it proves to be true, "we, from our side, welcome it"
"We have seen that they would like to reestablish the time of buffer zone around its borders" per #Estonia FM @eliimets on #RussiaUkraineCrisis

"Russia does not want to have democratic & prosperous countries around its borders"
"I am not surprised what I have seen" by #Russia around #Ukraine" per #Estonia FM @eliimets
"We have provided economic support. We have provided also military equipment support, but also of course the political support" to #Ukraine, per #Estonia FM @eliimets
"I believe that we are there" says #Estonia FM @eliimets when asked if allies with stay unified in sanctioning #Russia should there be another invasion of #Ukraine
More on sanctions: "Of course, there are some agreements that need to be made between our countries but from the EU side, our leaders are ready to meet immediately" per #Estonia FM @eliimets

#Russia-#Ukraine
"If there is another military attacks, then we definitely have to act decisively" per #Estonia FM @eliimets

For measures short of an invasion, allies must continue to "raise the resiliency" of #Ukraine
"The current security crisis in #Europe has clearly shown that the #UnitedStates has very important balancing power in terms of European security situation" per #Estonia FM @eliimets
"It is very important the UnitedStates continues to be part of this & continues to be active member of @NATO" per #Estonia FM @eliimets "It is very important that we have seen this leadership & we really hope this continues"
"We have seen this constant military pressure from #Russia side towards its Western neighbors" per #Estonia FM @eliimets "It clearly shows that this unstability that is created continues for quite some time"
#Belarus-"These military exercises in Belarus ... are another clear sign, violation of int'l law" per #Estonia FM @eliimets "It clearly changes the balance of military powers in #Europe if these kinds of exercises take place & if new military bases are created in Belarus"
"#Belarus has been a country which has also looked towards democracy & toward Western countries" per #Estonia FM @eliimets "It would have been nice to see another democratic country in our region. Unfortunately, this trend is reversed at the moment"
"If #Russia really chooses the other ways, they would have been much more welcomed in the int'l community" per #Estonia FM @eliimets

"Unfortunately, to assess the future we have to look at the past...we have not seen any positive signs or developments"
If #Russia again invades #Ukraine, "it would be good to see the enhanced forward presence as a permanent @NATO mission in out region" per #Estonia FM @eliimets "We would of course welcome the presence of the US in the #Baltic region"
Severe economic sanctions vs #Russia would impact #Estonia economy but FM @eliimets says it would not come as a shock - "We have experience"

"After 2014, when the EU also put forward the sanctions then we had to reorganize our export & import w/Russia in quite many sectors"
NEW: #Estonia FM @eliimets says "it would be good" for #Ukraine to be part of @NATO's Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence in #Tallinn "so that also Ukraine could increase its resilience"

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More from @jseldin

Feb 17
Happening now: @SecDef Lloyd Austin briefs reporters following the NATO Defense Ministerial in #Brussels Image
"#Russia continues building up their military presence along #Ukraine’s borders including in #Crimea, #Belarus, and in the #BlackSea" per @SecDef

"In many ways, this brings Russian troops right up to @NATO’s doorstep"
"As President Biden said a couple days ago, we will if we must defend every inch of @NATO territory" per @SecDef

"There is no reason, of course, that it should ever come to this. Just like there is no reason for #Russia to again invade #Ukraine"
Read 14 tweets
Feb 16
JUST IN: @CISAgov @FBI @NSAGov issuing #cybersecuurity advisory on #Russia targeting US defense contractors supporting @USArmy @usairforce @USNavy @SpaceForceDoD & intelligence agencies

Goal was to get info on weapons development, communications infrastructure, research & more
MORE: @CISAgov @FBI @NSAGov warn #Russia #cyber actors targeting defense contractors w/

- Brute force techniques
- Spearphishing emails
- Harvested credentials
- Mapping Active Directory
- Maintaining access for months
"Over the last several years, we have observed and documented a host of malicious activity conducted by #Russia|n state-sponsored cyber actors targeting US critical infrastructure" per @CISAJen in statement
Read 4 tweets
Feb 15
NEW: @POTUS not alone saying #Russia amassed 150,000 troops along #Ukraine's borders

New report from #Estonia's foreign intel service says "Russia mobilized 150,000 men...deploying units & capabilities from all its military districts, including the Far East, & all 12 armies"
Per #Estonia's foreign intelligence service, #Russia's deployed:

-3 motor rifle divisions
-1 airborne division
-1 naval infantry brigade
- +60 motor rifle & tank battalions
- abt 10 Iskander missile battalions
- +30 artillery & rocket artillery battalions

to border w/#Ukraine
More" #Russia has set up full logistic support for the force groups, bringing in additional command & rear units & forward-deploying munitions in the Ukrainian direction" per #Estonia intel
Read 7 tweets
Feb 15
Just in: #alQaida releases 3rd video from leader Ayman al-Zawahiri this month - this one billed as episode 4 in his "Deal of the Century" lecture series

via @JihadoScope
The other videos with #alQaida's Zawahiri were issued February 3 and February 8
Per @siteintelgroup, in this latest video, which runs about 16 minutes, #alQaida's Zawahiri calls for Muslims to unite, and takes aim at rival #ISIS
Read 4 tweets
Feb 15
NEW: #alQaida "maintained a low profile in #Afghanistan...likely at the behest of #Taliban leaders attempting to establish legitimacy with the int'l community" per acting @DoD_IG Sean O'Donnell in new report
Per @CENTCOM, @DefenseIntel "#Taliban has not permitted al-Qaeda members to play a significant role in its so-called “interim government” & will likely
aim to prevent #alQaida attacks on the United States as it attempts to gain international legitimacy" says @DoD_IG report
.@CENTCOM "said that the #Taliban very likely will allow #alQaida elements in #Afghanistan to maintain a low profile within the country to preserve legacy relationships & avoid upsetting the most militant Islamic elements within the Taliban" per @DoD_IG report
Read 8 tweets
Feb 15
Threat landscape in the US - "A lot has changed" since December, @DHSgov's John Cohen, the senior official performing the duties of the Undersecretary of Intelligence & Analysis tells @gwupoe
Foreign intel services, foreign terrorist orgs also "promoting socio-political content...for the purposes of sowing discord" in the #UnitedStates per @DHSgov's Cohen

"These narratives have in fact led to attacks in this country"
Read 38 tweets

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