Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Feb 15 38 tweets 19 min read
Threat landscape in the US - "A lot has changed" since December, @DHSgov's John Cohen, the senior official performing the duties of the Undersecretary of Intelligence & Analysis tells @gwupoe
Foreign intel services, foreign terrorist orgs also "promoting socio-political content...for the purposes of sowing discord" in the #UnitedStates per @DHSgov's Cohen

"These narratives have in fact led to attacks in this country"
"We have a much better understanding ... of the content narratives" per @DHSgov's Cohen

"We assess...the promotion of those narratives will continue into 2022" per Cohen, increasing chances for more violence
"We are seeing an increase in increased specificity as it relates to calls for violence" per @DHSgov's Cohen

"Escalated tensions between #Russia & #Ukraine have the potential" to impact tensions, violence in the US
"We believe and out partners in the intelligence community and in law enforcement...agree that in many respects the environment is even more volatile" per @DHSgov's Cohen
"The threat environment is probably the most volatile & dynamic that I've experienced in my 35 year career" per @DHSgov's Cohen

But he says US in better position than ever to deal w/these threats
Media ops for #alQaida, #ISIS "continue to promote highly-sophisticated online content...it's really well done" per @DHSgov's Cohen

AQ, ISIS media ops also "taking a measure out of the #Russia|n active measures playbook" per Cohen
"We're going to prepare in anticipation that if the situation escalates we are going to be ready to do everything we can" against #cyberattacks, #informationwarfare &
per @DHSgov's Cohen
"#Russia has maintained a sustained level of activity" w/info campaigns" per @DHSgov's Cohen

US seeing "increase in the level of those operations & a shift in narratives...to lay the blame for the #Ukraine crisis & the potential escalation at the feet of the US"
US persons traveling to extremist groups in #Ukraine, #Russia -"We have not seen a significant amount of planned travel at this point but its obviously something that we look at and we are looking at" per @DHSgov's Cohen
NEW: "The escalated tensions btw #Russia & #Ukraine have the potential to exacerbate the threat environment here at home, particularly as it relates to the use by Russia of disinformation campaigns & active measure techniques " @DHSgov's John Cohen tells @gwupoe @NCITE_COE
Possibility of #Russia #cyber attack vs US?

"I'm not going to sit here and say right now that I have specific intelligence saying that they're going to launch a cyberattack, but we're going to prepare...we're going to be ready" per @DHSgov's Cohen
#Russia-#Ukraine: "We're going to be prepared to deal w/increased information warfare activities, spreading of disinformation, particularly narratives that are intended to destabilize our society..." per @DHSgov's Cohen
#Russia-#Ukraine: "We're going to be prepared to deal w/any other asymmetric techniques that #Russia would seek to employ in the US if the situation escalated in a certain way" per @DHSgov's Cohen
NEW: "What we have seen over the past cpl of weeks is an increase in the level of those operations & a shift in narratives" from #Russia|n influence ops, per @DHSgov's Cohen

"...trying to shift blame away from Russia's efforts and place more blame on the US"

re #Ukraine
.@DHSgov seeing "an increase in the promotion of narratives trying to to lay the blame for the #Ukraine crisis & the escalation of the potential escalation in that conflict at the feet of the US" per Cohen
No signs of mobilization in the US by white supremacists, neo-Nazis to join fight btw #Russia, #Ukraine

"We have not seen a significant amount of plane travel at this point, but it's obviously something we look at" per @DHSgov's Cohen
Threats to #HBCUs, #Washington DC high schools - "Sometimes it's individuals who may have an underlying extremist belief" per @DHSgov's Cohen "In other cases that may be juveniles or school kids who are trying to get out of going to school or who simply think it's funny"
Underlying cause for concern w/bomb threats to #HBCUs, other schools - "We're seeing more & more ppl spend considerable amounts of time online dabbling in different areas of extremist content..." per @DHSgov's Cohen
"...sometimes they will engage in violent activity in an effort in support of that extremist content that they're consuming or extremist beliefs that they're connecting with" per @DHSgov's Cohen "Other times it's woven into narratives because people think it's funny"
"There's a considerable amount of expense that goes into responding to these types of events. They are incredibly disruptive" per @DHSgov's Cohen
"The hateful, racist language used to communicate the threats as it relates to the historical black colleges & universities is something that doesn't belong in our society" per @DHSgov's Cohen
.@DHSgov's John Cohen, the sr official performing the duties of the UnderSec of Intel&Analysis pushes back vs 'though police' accusation

"Let me just be really clear-our job is not to police thought" he says "Our job is to prevent acts of violence"
"We do not monitor individuals as they are involved in constitutionally protected speech. We do not target people for investigations based on their political beliefs" per @DHSgov's Cohen
"Anyone who suggests that this NTAS reflects a strategy of this administration,this department to target for investigation individuals simply bcs of their political or other beliefs either didn't read the NTAS,didn't understand it or is intentionally misrepresenting it" per Cohen
"To suggest that somehow the department or the administration is simply trying to open the door to investigate people bcs of their political beliefs or ppl who are involved in constitutionally protected speech, quite frankly it's irresponsible..." per @DHSgov's Cohen
Suggestions @DHSgov is targeting ppl for political beliefs or taking part in Constitutionally protected activities "may also contribute to the volatility of the threat environment" warns DHS's Cohen
Trucker protest in #Ottawa - @DHSgov's John Cohen: "We noted that the Canadians were handling this as a nat'l security issue bcs while there were some people who were simply there bcs they were expressing their displeasure w/vaccine mandates..."
"...they [#Canada security officials] were also seeing significant levels of online & physical participation by violent extremists, ideologically motivated violent extremists" per @DHSgov's Cohen
As far as calls for similar trucker protests in the US, "when you start seeing woven into the threads of conversation regarding the planning of these events actual specific calls for violence...then it's something we have to evaluate & track" per @DHSgov's Cohen
Threats vs US critical infrastructure: "We are seeing from an intelligence perspective much more specificity to in the calls by these different threat actors to target parts of our critical infrastructure" per @DHSgov's Cohen "We're concerned about it all"
"We're concerned about the potential that a foreign nation state may seek to achieve or support their geopolitical objectives by using a #cyber penetration to either disrupt the information capabilities of a part of our critical infrastructure or cause physical damage" per Cohen
"We're concerned abt calls that have been levied by domestic violent extremist & foreign terrorists to physically target parts of our power infrastructure or energy infrastructure & our telecommunications infrastructure" per @DHSgov's Cohen
"Part of the objective from a domestic terror perspective would be that by attacking parts of our critical infrastructure, you will accelerate the breakdown of our society" per @DHSgov's Cohen
"This is a threat environment that has become intermingled, where multiple ideologies can be comingled by an individual" per @DHSgov's Cohen

"You have individuals who take pictures of themselves in front of a neo-Nazi flag and a flag associated w/ #ISIS"
"Until we do something abt the angry polarized nature of political & public discourse...until we do more to recognize that in large part the violence we're experiencing in our society is fueled by content that's placed online specifically for the purposes of sowing discord..."
"...we're going to continue to see the levels of violence we're experiencing today" warns @DHSgov's Cohen

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More from @jseldin

Feb 17
Happening now: @SecDef Lloyd Austin briefs reporters following the NATO Defense Ministerial in #Brussels Image
"#Russia continues building up their military presence along #Ukraine’s borders including in #Crimea, #Belarus, and in the #BlackSea" per @SecDef

"In many ways, this brings Russian troops right up to @NATO’s doorstep"
"As President Biden said a couple days ago, we will if we must defend every inch of @NATO territory" per @SecDef

"There is no reason, of course, that it should ever come to this. Just like there is no reason for #Russia to again invade #Ukraine"
Read 14 tweets
Feb 16
JUST IN: @CISAgov @FBI @NSAGov issuing #cybersecuurity advisory on #Russia targeting US defense contractors supporting @USArmy @usairforce @USNavy @SpaceForceDoD & intelligence agencies

Goal was to get info on weapons development, communications infrastructure, research & more
MORE: @CISAgov @FBI @NSAGov warn #Russia #cyber actors targeting defense contractors w/

- Brute force techniques
- Spearphishing emails
- Harvested credentials
- Mapping Active Directory
- Maintaining access for months Image
"Over the last several years, we have observed and documented a host of malicious activity conducted by #Russia|n state-sponsored cyber actors targeting US critical infrastructure" per @CISAJen in statement
Read 4 tweets
Feb 16
HAPPENING NOW: "War in #Europe started already more than 8 years ago when #Russia's annexation of part of #Ukraine took place" #Estonia FM @eliimets tells @CNASdc #CNAS2022
Signs #Russia pulling back from #Ukraine?

"At the moment we cannot talk about deescalation. It definitely takes quite some time to see" per #Estonia FM @eliimets to #CNAS2022

If it proves to be true, "we, from our side, welcome it"
"We have seen that they would like to reestablish the time of buffer zone around its borders" per #Estonia FM @eliimets on #RussiaUkraineCrisis

"Russia does not want to have democratic & prosperous countries around its borders"
Read 17 tweets
Feb 15
NEW: @POTUS not alone saying #Russia amassed 150,000 troops along #Ukraine's borders

New report from #Estonia's foreign intel service says "Russia mobilized 150,000 men...deploying units & capabilities from all its military districts, including the Far East, & all 12 armies"
Per #Estonia's foreign intelligence service, #Russia's deployed:

-3 motor rifle divisions
-1 airborne division
-1 naval infantry brigade
- +60 motor rifle & tank battalions
- abt 10 Iskander missile battalions
- +30 artillery & rocket artillery battalions

to border w/#Ukraine
More" #Russia has set up full logistic support for the force groups, bringing in additional command & rear units & forward-deploying munitions in the Ukrainian direction" per #Estonia intel
Read 7 tweets
Feb 15
Just in: #alQaida releases 3rd video from leader Ayman al-Zawahiri this month - this one billed as episode 4 in his "Deal of the Century" lecture series

via @JihadoScope Image
The other videos with #alQaida's Zawahiri were issued February 3 and February 8
Per @siteintelgroup, in this latest video, which runs about 16 minutes, #alQaida's Zawahiri calls for Muslims to unite, and takes aim at rival #ISIS
Read 4 tweets
Feb 15
NEW: #alQaida "maintained a low profile in #Afghanistan...likely at the behest of #Taliban leaders attempting to establish legitimacy with the int'l community" per acting @DoD_IG Sean O'Donnell in new report
Per @CENTCOM, @DefenseIntel "#Taliban has not permitted al-Qaeda members to play a significant role in its so-called “interim government” & will likely
aim to prevent #alQaida attacks on the United States as it attempts to gain international legitimacy" says @DoD_IG report
.@CENTCOM "said that the #Taliban very likely will allow #alQaida elements in #Afghanistan to maintain a low profile within the country to preserve legacy relationships & avoid upsetting the most militant Islamic elements within the Taliban" per @DoD_IG report
Read 8 tweets

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