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Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
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Feb 18 • 19 tweets • 8 min read
Today as the #Kremlin's #disinformation cycle goes into overdrive, it's worth remembering that while the volume is louder, the pattern is familiar.

The stories don't need to be credible or logical. Their purpose isn't to convince. Their aim is to sow doubt & confusion. /1
Confusion & doubt make it hard for audiences to know what is true, leading to paralysis.

They can make collective action difficult, by sowing dissension & distrust between partners. /2

files.ethz.ch/isn/194545/Bri…

research-management.mq.edu.au/ws/portalfiles…

semperfidelis.ro/e107_files/pub…
Thinking about the two big #disinformation stories swirling about today, we can see that little attempt is being made to make the narratives particularly credible. /3
For example, regarding the supposed "saboteurs" seeking to trigger a chlorine leak in Russian-occupied territory, pro-#Kremlin news agencies released an extremely blurry and frankly inconclusive video as "evidence." /4

But almost immediately the details of the story began to break down. That's because the details don't matter when persuasion isn't the objective. /5

And supposedly there are recordings of intercepted conversations amongst the "saboteurs," which would be fantastic evidence -- if it existed. Claiming evidence exists without showing it is a familiar #disinformation tactic. /6

Similar #disinformation has been swirling around the shelling by Russian-backed forces that hit a kindergarten in Stanytsia Luhanska yesterday. /7

Despite clear evidence that this kindergarten is in Ukrainian controlled territory, rumors immediately began online that either the kindergarten was actually in Russian-backed separatist territory (playing into the false genocide narrative).../8

france24.com/en/live-news/2…
... as this report makes clear... /9

euromaidanpress.com/2022/02/17/the…
... or suggesting that no attack actually occurred, that the photos were staged... /10

... or even claiming that the kindergarten was damaged in a "false flag" attack carried out by Ukrainian forces against their own citizens in their own territory... /11

None of these claims are really meant to be plausible.

But to an audience with no information about what is going on in #Ukraine, or an audience who distrusts responsible media or international organizations like the #OSCE, this deluge can be defeating. And that's the point.
And the deluge continues… Claims that “saboteurs” damaged gas pipelines In Russian-occupied territory (which Ukrainian intelligence had already warned about)…
Meanwhile, pro-Russian Telegram channels warn about a Ukrainian attack on buses carrying civilians away from the front (and into Russia)… /a
This is implausible for several reasons, including Ukraine’s history of restraint (compared to the Russian-backed forces’ history of violations)… /b

amnesty.org/en/latest/news…
… and also because of Ukrainian officials clear and desperate efforts today to war the people in occupied Luhansk and Donetsk that a false-flag operation might endanger their lives. /c

theins.ru/news/248675
P.S. It may not even be a pipeline that exploded — but rather a gas station. The fundamental point remains: facts are not a necessary component of a disinformation campaign.
At any rate, the physical damage seems to have been minimal— but the dramatic story originally “reported” by Kremlin-sponsored #disinformation outlets has already made a big splash, bigger than the splash any of the more accurate correctives will make.
Wow, and it turns out that the video’s metadata contradicts its supposed content too… /6A

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More from @vmorkevicius

Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 20
As someone whose research focuses on the just war traditions, I think it’s worth stating – firmly – that a reasonable argument cannot be made to justify a Russian invasion of #Ukraine. /1
Within the Christian just war tradition, there are 6 principles to consider, not as checkboxes to be ticked, but as concerns to be weighed against one another.

These include legitimate authority, just cause, right intent, proportionality, likelihood of success & last resort. /2
The content of these principles varies somewhat over time and between the Catholic/Orthodox/Protestant traditions, but the commonalities are much more significant than the differences. /3
Read 36 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 18
Compare this to the #Kremlin's refusal to even cooperate with the OSCE Vienna Document process.

Transparency is a way of reducing tensions, by making one's intentions clear. /1
#Ukraine's leaders have reiterated that they have no plans to advance into Russian-backed separatist territory, and have ordered their forces to exercise restraint in responding to fire from Russian-controlled territory. /2

wsj.com/articles/ukrai…
#Ukraine's leaders have invoked the #OSCE Vienna Document process as a way to build confidence through increased transparency. But #Russia has refused to cooperate at all. /3
Read 4 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 15
The #Kremlin signals with one hand that it’s interested in diplomacy — and perhaps it is — but with the other it’s continuing to ratchet up the pressure on #Ukraine, through political maneuvering, #disinformation operations, and #cyber attacks. /1
Today the Duma voted to ask #Putin to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as independent states. If Putin does so, the Minsk peace agreements would be effectively made void. /2

english.pravda.ru/news/russia/15…
The language used to describe this action in Pravda is especially telling. Note the claim that this action is “morally justified,” and more important the claim that recognition will “protect” the population from “external threats” and “the policy of genocide.” /4 Image
Read 12 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 15
@peterpomeranzev’s choice of words here is excellent. The old slogan, “For Your Freedom and Ours” is meaningful not just in #Lithuania, but in the region more broadly.

And it captures an important point for today’s situation: freedom, like security, is indivisible. /1
An old thread about the origins of the phrase, and some of its implications… /2
One of the early movements calling for democracy in Poland (in the 1970s) invoked the phrase; counter-protesters demanding a return to a more liberal democracy marched under it in 2017. /3

polishfreedom.pl/en/document/to…

Read 9 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 14
It seems the lower house of the Duma will consider two draft proposals on Tuesday— one calling directly in Putin to recognize Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics and a second one asking Putin to consult with the Defense and Foreign Ministries first. /1

themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/14/rus…
The first proposal was brought forward by the Communist party and the Just Russia party, which together hold under 20% of the seats in the lower Duma.

The second was brought by Putin’s United Russia party, which holds the vast majority of the seats. /2

csis.org/analysis/will-…
Recognizing the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics would eliminate the Kremlin’s need for the pretense that this is an internal Ukrainian problem that the Kremlin is merely concerned about as a neighbor. /3
Read 6 tweets
Valerie Morkevičius Profile picture
Feb 13
This is an important question.

#Ukraine is already paying the cost of the #Kremlin’s threatened invasion. /1
As of February 14, reinsurers will no longer cover commercial airlines flying into or over Ukraine, essentially creating a civilian no-fly zone.

The effects on business travel, tourism, and ordinary life are obvious. /2

kyivindependent.com/national/ukrai…
Ukrainian shipping has been affected by Russia’s wide-ranging exercises in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, which effectively blockaded Ukrainian ports. The latter has now been reopened: exercises continue in the former. /3

israelhayom.com/2022/02/13/in-…
Read 7 tweets

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