Thinking about the two big #disinformation stories swirling about today, we can see that little attempt is being made to make the narratives particularly credible. /3
For example, regarding the supposed "saboteurs" seeking to trigger a chlorine leak in Russian-occupied territory, pro-#Kremlin news agencies released an extremely blurry and frankly inconclusive video as "evidence." /4
And supposedly there are recordings of intercepted conversations amongst the "saboteurs," which would be fantastic evidence -- if it existed. Claiming evidence exists without showing it is a familiar #disinformation tactic. /6
Despite clear evidence that this kindergarten is in Ukrainian controlled territory, rumors immediately began online that either the kindergarten was actually in Russian-backed separatist territory (playing into the false genocide narrative).../8
... or even claiming that the kindergarten was damaged in a "false flag" attack carried out by Ukrainian forces against their own citizens in their own territory... /11
None of these claims are really meant to be plausible.
But to an audience with no information about what is going on in #Ukraine, or an audience who distrusts responsible media or international organizations like the #OSCE, this deluge can be defeating. And that's the point.
And the deluge continues… Claims that “saboteurs” damaged gas pipelines In Russian-occupied territory (which Ukrainian intelligence had already warned about)…
… and also because of Ukrainian officials clear and desperate efforts today to war the people in occupied Luhansk and Donetsk that a false-flag operation might endanger their lives. /c
P.S. It may not even be a pipeline that exploded — but rather a gas station. The fundamental point remains: facts are not a necessary component of a disinformation campaign.
At any rate, the physical damage seems to have been minimal— but the dramatic story originally “reported” by Kremlin-sponsored #disinformation outlets has already made a big splash, bigger than the splash any of the more accurate correctives will make.
As someone whose research focuses on the just war traditions, I think it’s worth stating – firmly – that a reasonable argument cannot be made to justify a Russian invasion of #Ukraine. /1
Within the Christian just war tradition, there are 6 principles to consider, not as checkboxes to be ticked, but as concerns to be weighed against one another.
These include legitimate authority, just cause, right intent, proportionality, likelihood of success & last resort. /2
The content of these principles varies somewhat over time and between the Catholic/Orthodox/Protestant traditions, but the commonalities are much more significant than the differences. /3
#Ukraine's leaders have reiterated that they have no plans to advance into Russian-backed separatist territory, and have ordered their forces to exercise restraint in responding to fire from Russian-controlled territory. /2
#Ukraine's leaders have invoked the #OSCE Vienna Document process as a way to build confidence through increased transparency. But #Russia has refused to cooperate at all. /3
The #Kremlin signals with one hand that it’s interested in diplomacy — and perhaps it is — but with the other it’s continuing to ratchet up the pressure on #Ukraine, through political maneuvering, #disinformation operations, and #cyber attacks. /1
Today the Duma voted to ask #Putin to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as independent states. If Putin does so, the Minsk peace agreements would be effectively made void. /2
The language used to describe this action in Pravda is especially telling. Note the claim that this action is “morally justified,” and more important the claim that recognition will “protect” the population from “external threats” and “the policy of genocide.” /4
@peterpomeranzev’s choice of words here is excellent. The old slogan, “For Your Freedom and Ours” is meaningful not just in #Lithuania, but in the region more broadly.
And it captures an important point for today’s situation: freedom, like security, is indivisible. /1
One of the early movements calling for democracy in Poland (in the 1970s) invoked the phrase; counter-protesters demanding a return to a more liberal democracy marched under it in 2017. /3
It seems the lower house of the Duma will consider two draft proposals on Tuesday— one calling directly in Putin to recognize Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics and a second one asking Putin to consult with the Defense and Foreign Ministries first. /1
Recognizing the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics would eliminate the Kremlin’s need for the pretense that this is an internal Ukrainian problem that the Kremlin is merely concerned about as a neighbor. /3
Ukrainian shipping has been affected by Russia’s wide-ranging exercises in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, which effectively blockaded Ukrainian ports. The latter has now been reopened: exercises continue in the former. /3