🇨🇳 #NPC Meeting Debrief (1) | The 5.5% GDP target (upper range of expectations) signals an intent to limit downward pressures from the #property slump, zero-#Covid strategy and #Ukraine war (affecting foreign demand).
*Note: China 2021 GDP growth was 8.1%
🇨🇳 #NPC Meeting Debrief (2) | The fact that officials opted for the upper range of expectations looks very encouraging.
*There is a significant risk of missing this goal the year of Xi re-election.
🇨🇳 #NPC Meeting Debrief (3) | The fiscal support could be much stronger than indicated by the headlines as the government will use unused resources from last year (above-budget income as well as below-budget spending)
*Link: bit.ly/3sHrZZL
🇨🇳 #NPC Meeting Debrief (4) | The statements on the monetary front also suggest the #PBoC will be more accommodative soon (in line with the latest quarterly report).
*Global Times link: bit.ly/35qfiKl
🇨🇳 #NPC Meeting Debrief (5) | #China also plans to set up a financial stability fund and adopt measures to keep housing prices stable.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇨🇳 #NPC Meeting Debrief (6) | It also suggests that Chinese officials are not betting on a prolonged #Ukraine conflict (otherwise, they would have probably opted for a lower GDP target).

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More from @C_Barraud

Mar 4
🇨🇳 #NPC meeting (1) | #China will be forced to announce new supportive measures in a context where:

1- Hospitality sector remains under heavy pressure due to persistent #Covid restrictions. As an example, according to Airportia, on a YoY basis, air traffic is still falling.
🇨🇳 #NPC meeting (2) | Residential #housing market is crashing.

*In Feb., the 100 biggest companies in #property industry saw a 47.2% ⬇ in sales YoY (v 39.6% prior), according to preliminary data by #China Real Estate Information Corp.

*Weekly figures also point to weakness ⬇
🇨🇳 #NPC meeting (3) | Foreign demand (a key supportive factor over the past few months) is on track to collapse amid #Ukraine crisis.

Read 6 tweets
Feb 24
🇺🇸 🇷🇺 *BIDEN, G7 LEADER AGREE TO RESPOND SWIFTLY TO #RUSSIA:WHITE HOUSE - BBG
*G-7 TO IMPOSE 'UNPRECEDENTED' COSTS ON RUSSIA: WHITE HOUSE
*WESTERN ALLIES SEE KYIV FALLING TO RUSSIAN FORCES WITHIN HOURS
🇺🇸 🇷🇺 *RUSSIA TO BE ISOLATED FROM GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM, TRADE: U.S. - BBG
*BIDEN IMPOSING STRONG SANCTIONS, NEW LIMITS ON RUSSIA
*BIDEN: IMPACT ON U.S., ALLIES WILL BE MINIMIZED
🇺🇸🇷🇺 *BIDEN: WE WILL LIMIT RUSSIA ABILITY TO DO BUSINESS IN DOLLARS - BBG
*BIDEN: RUSSIA ABILITY TO DEAL IN YENS, EUROS TO BE LIMITED
*BIDEN: SANCTIONING RUSSIA BANKS
Read 6 tweets
Feb 24
🇬🇧 🇷🇺 *JOHNSON: MUST END DEPENDENCE ON #RUSSIA #GAS - BBG
*U.K. TO FREEZE ASSETS OF RUSSIA'S VTB BANK IMMEDIATELY
*RUSSIA TO BE BARRED FROM RAISING SOVEREIGN DEBT IN U.K. MARKETS
*U.K. TO FREEZE ASSETS OF ALL MAJOR RUSSIAN BANKS: JOHNSON
🇬🇧 🇷🇺 *U.K. TO SUSPEND DUAL-USE EXPORT LICENSES TO #RUSSIA: JOHNSON - BBG
*U.K. IMPOSES SANCTIONS ON OVER 100 RUSSIA INDIVIDUALS, ENTITIES
*JOHNSON: BANNING EXPORT OF HIGH-TECH COMPONENTS TO RUSSIA
*JOHNSON: BRINGING FORWARD ECONOMIC CRIME BILL
🇬🇧 🇷🇺 *JOHNSON: `MISSION' TO SQUEEZE #RUSSIA FROM GLOBAL ECONOMY - BBG
*U.K. WANTS RUSSIA BARRED FROM SWIFT PAYMENT SYSTEM: JOHNSON



Read 4 tweets
Feb 21
🇷🇺 🇺🇦 *PUTIN BEGINS TELEVISED ADDRESS ON DONBAS SEPARATIST RECOGNITION - BBG
*PUTIN: UKRAINIAN STATE WAS CREATED BY RUSSIA
🇷🇺🇺🇦 *PUTIN: UKRAINE COULD DEVELOP TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS - BBG

*RUBLE WEAKENS TO 80 PER DOLLAR
🇷🇺🇺🇦 *PUTIN: WEST WILL IMPOSE SANCTIONS ON #RUSSIA NO MATTER WHAT - BBG
Read 6 tweets
Feb 3
🇪🇺 #ECB Meeting (1) | Lagarde conference was more hawkish than ECB statement as she clearly opens the door to some adjustments.
*It suggests that the governing council is feeling uncomfortable with #inflation.
*It suggests that a hike in 2022 is no longer excluded.
🇪🇺 #ECB Meeting (2) | Markets reacted immediately and are now pricing a hike in June.
🇪🇺 #ECB Meeting (3) | It looks extreme. My view remains that #inflation will be higher than expected but there is nothing in the data right now that suggests it won't normalize from H2.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 31
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (1) | Latest reports confirmed that #inflation remains a key issue that has affected consumer confidence and spending.
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (2) | The problem is that #Biden advisors and economists didn’t see it coming, thinking that #inflation was transitory. As a result, Biden approval rating ⬇ sharply and is for the first time below #Trump's at this time in the presidency.
🇺🇸 #Macro Update (3) | Now they woke up (a part of #inflation is of course durable), they think that raising short-term rates as fast as possible before midterms will solve the problem, which confirms that they still don’t understand inflation dynamic and markets’ reaction.
Read 6 tweets

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