Homebuilder survey results are in for February. Top themes: 1) Record high new home price increases at +20% YOY nationally. 2) Record low builder finished inventory. 3) Demand still off the charts & quality of home buyer prospect lists still solid. Market commentary to follow…
#Charlotte builder: “Restricting sales in all communities. Several communities with VIP lists over 1,000 and one of those communities only has 51 homes. Increasing mortgage rates haven’t slowed buyers down at all.”
#Charlotte builder: “HELP WANTED signs have driven direct construction costs up +20%. Keeping your employees from jumping ship to work for another builder costs 25% more.”
#Charlotte builder: “We’ve stopped selling homes in the majority of our communities due to supply chain & labor delays. We release homes for sale once they get to drywall stage. This will throw off our community counts & sales numbers."
#Boston builder: “We continue to limit lot releases, even sold our models. Our agents are not holding open houses nor advertising. Lots are reserved within days of release.”
#Nashville builder: “Market is still extremely strong even with rates moving up. Still a large shortage of homes on the market.”
#Nashville builder: “We’re still limiting contracts to homes that have completed the framing stage with windows and roofs installed. We do not anticipate any presale opportunities until supply channels become consistent.”
#Dallas builder: “We’re limiting sales to spec inventory in order to limit inflation risk.”
#Austin builder: “Traditional detached sales (entry level and move-up) continued to be very strong in February."
#Houston builder: “Costs continue to increase, and with higher rates we may see a slowing but we have not seen it yet.”
#SanAntonio builder: “Lack of lot supply, shortage of labor, and uncertainty of material costs and availability is limiting the number of sales we are willing to commit to contract.”
#Knoxville builder: “Some neighborhoods have several hundred people on a waiting list for less than 50 homes to be built.”
#Atlanta builder: “Strong interest lists are forming for our May/June openings. Many coming from apartments."
#Wilmington builder: “We offer homes for sale at about the insulation stage. These homes sell quickly after offered. Still experiencing shortages and delays in materials and our subcontractor base is weaker.”
#Charleston builder: “We can’t seem to start and build homes fast enough. Demand is still high, but with pricing still being an uncertainty, we may soon begin limiting sales to after the home hits drywall.”
#Tampa builders: “Our increase in prospects has been driven by spillover from lack of availability in the resale market. Our prices are up $30,000+ in the past 90 days. Affordability is becoming a larger issue every month.”
#Naples builder: “We’re restricting sales to 4 per month in this community right now to catch up on our backlog.”
#WestPalmBeach builder: “Still metering sales in every location. Every release comes with a [price] increase. We sell our allotment right off the bat. Priority interest lists remain strong.”
Quick chart tying to that last builder comment on quality of home buyer interest lists being 'about the same' or 'more qualified' than February 2021. Image
#Stockton builder: “Restricting starts & sales, so both come in spurts when released. Still seeing strong interest from well qualified Bay Area relocation buyers. First time buyers are being challenged by interest rate increases, but it’s creating buyer urgency.”
#Oakland builder: “Restricting the number of homes we release now to try to keep our margins high.” THE END

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More from @RickPalaciosJr

Jan 12
A few gems from today's Fed Beige Book on crazy tight job market. Employers pulling out all the stops, even "no-meeting Wednesdays" to attract people.
"Extreme new-worker turnover"
"literally begging for employees"
Read 4 tweets
Jan 11
Home builder survey results are in for full month of December. Top themes: 1) Still a ton of demand for new homes. 2) Rampant construction material & labor shortages. 3) Bit of chatter on possible margin compression several quarters ahead. Market commentary to follow…
#Atlanta builder: “Have virtually no available inventory & huge backlog of 1,000+ units going in to 2022. Still metering sales in most communities, where the demand of waiting buyers still outnumbers our supply.”
#LasVegas builder: “Busiest orders for December I can remember in a long time.”
Read 27 tweets
Dec 13, 2021
We’ve been asking building product dealers about supply bottlenecks for several months. Seems like status quo holding for now (not getting better, but also not getting worse). Labor & logistics remain the biggest concerns, see survey commentary to follow…
“All beam products, glass faced gypsum products, windows, & interior trim products continue to tighten.”
“Lumber & engineered wood supply appears to be improving but steel supply remains a concern.”
Read 12 tweets
Dec 2, 2021
Some interesting comments from today's Fed Beige Book on both housing (investors, lot shortages, market normalizing) & labor market tightness (namely continued wage spike).
#Atlanta Fed housing commentary on investors
#Atlanta Fed commentary on tight job market
Read 14 tweets
Nov 29, 2021
Monthly pulse of resale housing market still rapid according to 4,500 agents we just surveyed. Top 3 themes: 1) Bit of market normalizing. 2) Skittish sellers fearing nowhere to move. 3) End of travel ban boosting international buyers. Commentary across the country to follow…
#Houston resale agent: “A lot of people are not listing because they don't know where they are going next. Seems that many people listed too high even for a sellers' market, so I am seeing more price reductions now than earlier in the year.”
#Orlando resale agent: “Our buyer pool is increasing. We see more buyers from the north connecting with us as they plan to visit the area from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year.”
Read 25 tweets
Nov 16, 2021
Over the last few months I’ve spoken with dozens of real estate & mortgage industry executives, trying to gauge what impact (if any) #crypto is having on the #housing market. Here’s what I’ve concluded. (1/) realestateconsulting.com/bubblicious-cr…
The number of home buyers w/documented crypto accounts has risen from ~0% one year ago to between 5% & 10% today. Platforms such as @coinbase $COIN were noted most often in my conversations, with $BTC & $ETH common plays. (2/)
It's more difficult tracking the % of home buyers using crypto gains towards the down payment on a home purchase. Most mortgage lenders & home builders estimate ~5% or less. However...(3/)
Read 12 tweets

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