Thread by @valuesearcher

#UkraineRussianWar

There are 3 main scenarios how this conflict could evolve going forward. Each of those scenario has certain probabilities of it occurring. Lets examine each one of them and their implications to the world in general:

Scenario 1 - (P:60%) #Ukarine & #Russia agree a ceasefire. Ukraine agrees to cede #Crimea and #Donbass to #Russia. #Putin withdraws #RussianArmy. #Europe over a period of time removes #sanctions. In a year, World becomes normal & everyone lives happily. Best outcome possible.

Scenario 2 - (P:30%) The conflict escalates. stalemate ensues. #Putin reaches #Dniper, takes over Kyiv. #Ukraine is bi-furcated in two - #EastUkraine under #Russian control, #WestUkraine aligned with #NATO. #SanctionsRussiaNow continue for long. #Europe consolidates with #USA

This is not a happy outcome for anyone except #America and #China. Heavy casualties for both ukraine ( #civilians) and russia ( #militarymen). Global economy will be disrupted. #America benefits as #Europe will mistrust #Russia. #China benefits #Russia will gravitate towards it

Scenario 3 - (P:8%). #UkraineUnderAttack for really long. Long drawn #miltary campaign with no end. Proxy govt. of #Ukraine️ is formed in a #Nato country supported by #Americans and #Europeans. #Russia is bogged down by insurgency. Worst outcome for everyone expect #USA & #China

Scenario 4 - (P:1%). Things really escalate from here. #American old order led by #Biden & other #Russianbaiters like #JohnMcCain (God rests his soul) keep on egging everyone. Somebody makes a mistake. Few thousand nuclear bombs fly across the world. Everyone is worst off.

P.S. - I am not anti-Ukraine, anti-Russia, anti-US or anything. I am just trying to crystal-gaze and lay down what I feel is going to happen going forward. I hope there is another outcome which is good and beneficial for all, guided by rational decision making at all ends

But the problem is that, #USA, the party which is going to be least affected by this conflict because of its geographical isolation, continues to have the biggest influence. On top of that, #American decision making is clouded by #Coldwar era thinking.