Thread by @onewmphoto

Some analysts are already offering their take on how all three countries are responding to what is a constantly evolving situation.

In short, they are treading carefully.

Ukraine and the South Caucasus onnik-krikorian.com/new_site/ukrai…

Speaking on Civilnet, Anna Ohanyan, a professor of Political Science and International Relations at Stonehill College in the US, says that supply chains, food prices, inflation, and remittances from abroad will be affected given the close integration between Armenia and Russia.

The effects will be long-term because sanctions amount to the economic containment of Russia. […] “If Russia suffers then Armenia, which is so dependent on Russia, will also suffer,” says Ronald Grigor Suny, “and that is a regrettable fallout from this terrible event.” #Ukraine

“The main threat to Armenia’s statehood may come from Moscow, not Baku or Ankara,” warns Tigran Grigoryan. “Russia, isolated from the West, will try to increase its influence in the regions it stills controls. This will significantly reduce Armenia’s sovereignty.” #Ukraine #Kyiv

“The outbreak of war in Ukraine was the worst-case scenario for Armenia and can create serious risks in our region, complicating the already difficult geopolitical situation of Armenia,” Grigoryan concludes. #Kyiv

.@HuseynovVasif believes cooperation between the US, French, and Russian OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs is hardly likely following the invasion of Ukraine […]. ”This offers a chance for Baku and Yerevan to promote bilateral contacts without any third-party mediation, he concludes.

In a long thread, @CrisisGroup analyst @ZaurShiriyev believes the assault on Ukraine is perceived as a danger by Azerbaijan. Baku would therefore like to see the earliest resolution of the conflict and has attempted to mediate between Kyiv and Moscow.

https://twitter.com/zaurshiriyev/status/1498495552719368198?s=21

“There are concerns that Russia will be the only hegemon in the S. Caucasus and the region will remain isolated, and increasingly return to the Russian orbit,” believes @ZaurShiriyev. "This also explains why Baku hasn't been vocal in criticising Russia for its actions." #Ukraine

“One thing is crystal clear. Russia is losing any remaining positive image in the eyes of Azerbaijani public,” concludes @shiriyev. “In sum, Baku’s current strategy is to wait and watch, while providing humanitarian support to Ukraine, and to avoid antagonizing (Russia)." #Kyiv