"US commitment to [NATO] Article 5 is iron-clad," says @VP Kamala Harris now speaking live from Poland alongside @AndrzejDuda. Desperately hoping that US intelligence hasn't picked up that there are already Russian plans to invade other countries. #Ukraine #Kyiv #Warsaw
When asked about air defences and airpower, especially regarding the Polish offer to supply Ukraine, @VP Harris lists all that the US has done to date, but doesn't answer that question. It's being asked again, but she evades it a second time. #Kyiv #Warsaw #Poland
Ukraine can reach out to anyone as well as NATO for assistance, @AndrzejDuda says, but also doesn't really answer the question. Instead says that NATO is responsible for the security of its members. "We don't want to endanger NATO," he says. Now speaking about the plane proposal.
"We want Poland to remain a fully responsible member of NATO," says @AndrzejDuda. "We are not a lone wolf."

Some backtracking with regards to the Polish planes for US replacements too. Says that Poland "did not want anything in return." #Ukraine #Kyiv #Warsaw #Russia #Moscow
Have never listened to @VP Kamala Harris before, and I know she has many critics, but I think she's showing herself to be quite capable in this presser from Poland even if she did evade the question about the Polish aircraft proposal. #Ukraine #Kyiv #Warsaw #Russia #Moscow

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More from @onewmphoto

Mar 10
.@FRANCE24 reports that Russian advances in Ukraine have stalled. No significant territorial changes on the ground in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, US sources put the number of Russian soldiers killed in this reckless invasion at around 6,000. #Kyiv
I don't know what will stop Vladimir Putin," says journalist Manon Loizeau on @FRANCE24. "Yes, we should all be afraid." #Ukraine #Kyiv #Moscow #Russia
Interesting point from @JasperMortimer on @FRANCE24. While Lavrov said today that he doesn't have the authority to agree on anything with his Ukrainian counterpart, this raises questions about what on earth is going on with the bilateral negotiations held on the Belarus border.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 10
Lavrov's press conference #HappeningNow a bit of a (bad) joke. Says Russia didn't attack Ukraine and that the supply of air defence systems to Kyiv is a threat to civil aviation. Yes, the Foreign Minister of the country that shot down #MH17 over Ukraine just said that.
"Ukraine is being turned into an anti-Russian country," says Lavrov in the press conference following his meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart in Antalya.

Yes, I guess invading a country generally does that.
Hardly worth listening to Lavrov's press conference, to be quite honest. Brushes off economic sanctions by saying they will make Russia "healthier." All his other talking points and responses are the same as those Putin used to justify the invasion. No public sign of any change.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 9
Some analysts are already offering their take on how all three countries are responding to what is a constantly evolving situation.

In short, they are treading carefully.

Ukraine and the South Caucasus onnik-krikorian.com/new_site/ukrai…
Speaking on Civilnet, Anna Ohanyan, a professor of Political Science and International Relations at Stonehill College in the US, says that supply chains, food prices, inflation, and remittances from abroad will be affected given the close integration between Armenia and Russia.
The effects will be long-term because sanctions amount to the economic containment of Russia. […] “If Russia suffers then Armenia, which is so dependent on Russia, will also suffer,” says Ronald Grigor Suny, “and that is a regrettable fallout from this terrible event.” #Ukraine
Read 9 tweets
Mar 8
"I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that… NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine," Zelensky said in an interview on ABC News.”

In Nod To Russia, Ukraine Says No Longer Insisting On NATO Membership ibtimes.com/nod-russia-ukr… #Kyiv
“In another apparent nod aimed at placating Moscow, Zelensky said he is open to "compromise" on the status of two breakaway pro-Russian territories that President Vladimir Putin recognized as independent just before unleashing the invasion on February 24.” #Ukraine #Kyiv 1/3
“He said these two regions "have not been recognized by anyone but Russia, these pseudo republics. But we can discuss and find the compromise on how these territories will live on." #Ukraine #Kyiv 2/3
Read 4 tweets
Oct 26, 2020
Watching a live-streamed presentation on Armenia and Azerbaijan in the context of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict from the Netherlands. Apparently neutral. Might live-tweet any relevant points worth being amplified to and for all sides as well as others interested. HT @babayevsky
Perhaps the most important point articulated by @adrianrogstad just now is that the international community is frustrated by the inability of Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Remember, the main ceasefire agreement was signed 26 years ago.
However, worth noting that @adrianrogstad also points out that Putin has hardly been enamoured by Pashinian's premiership. That said, a key new player this time is Turkish support for Azerbaijan. Ankara willing to take on Moscow for influence in the South Caucasus region.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 26, 2020
As mentioned, I've a piece coming soon on the impact fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh will have on Georgia. Because of word count, can't include all the interviews other than in much shorter quotes. So tweeting key points here over next few days. 1/
Today's key points are the responses from Georgian International Relations Analyst @ISirbiladze. It won't be any surprise that he considers the implications of fighting are very serious for the region. #Armenia #Azerbaijan #Karabakh 2/
In this fighting, says @ISirbiladze, Turkey can be considered an 'open enabler' while Russia is a 'failing disabler.' Moscow has shown itself unwilling or unable to dissuade Azerbaijan from continuing with its military operations against Armenian forces in and around Karabakh. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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