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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

Mar 19

1. I reported on the first Russo-Ukrainian war starting with the Maidan Jan 2014. After Merkel & Macron's Minsk I and II, I focused on Syria in a belief that ISIS was a Russian and Iranian operation to destroy Syrian Sunnis political unity. I worked to arm and assist the Kurds.

2. The force grew and establishment of the #SDF brought #Sunni #Arabs, #Christians & #Turkmen to join a single umbrella force with US airpower taking back large parts of #Syria. They still hold it much of it but #Putin gave large parts to #Erdogan who folded in ISIS & Al-#Qaeda

3. and along with #Russia, #Turkey, #Iran and #Assad act as a sort of overwatch. With US SOF and Bradleys from the 4th ID there as democracy's last hope.

When the Battle for Raqqa started in 2017, I observed ISIS military leadership made up of mostly Chechens started to leave.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

Mar 19

@DI_Ukraine

1. The US confirmed a few days ago that we are sharing intelligence with @DI_Ukraine. In addition to the AWACs, Joint Stars, a Global Hawk and Rivet Joints, Ukraine is 300 miles from a Russian ICBM complex. That would mean persistent overhead launch detection in addition

2. to optical and sensor satellite passes that could be quite regular. Imagine a Hubble telescope scouring parts of Ukraine every 100 minutes. No Russian soldier can hide in the flat Steppe terrain. They dig a hole and it becomes a bullseye.

3. No missile can launch without a flash detection and and immediate ballistic calculation report of the likely target.

I plane spot. I have lived near air force bases much of my life. I play a game and it's using my detection equipment to identify the plane. My ears.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

Mar 19

1. The humanitarian tragedy unfolding in #Mariupol makes discussion of the military situation take a necessary back seat. But the hell that is unfolding in Mariupol will be repeated throughout Ukraine if the battles are lost. So I turn to the battle that is now about to begin.

2. First, In Mariupol, Ukraine has lost some densely populated neighborhoods but the vast majority of densely settled Mariupol is still under Ukrainian control and will not be sold cheaply. Based on reporting the Chechens came in from east on Azov's coast likely from Rostov.

3. That side of the FLOT has been held until now by DNR forces who are no match for the experienced disciplined forces who who have held them to a standstill. They've advanced very little. But now ISIS is there getting jacked on amphetamines and shooting up the windows of a

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

Mar 19

1. Starting in the 1980's, my life was focused on the cold war so I remember fairly well what was generally advanced as the major causes of the USSR's demise. I can recall Putin angrily commenting on it not that long ago. My recollection was that it's generally agreed

2. that the Reagan administration's strategy targeting Soviet technocrats to get them emigrate, was the final nail in the Soviet coffin that could no longer operate an increasingly complex civil society. It impacted all parts of

3. Soviet society including education, medicine engineering and the military. That strategy took years to work. Putin will accomplish it again in a few weeks. Only Russian proletariat will remain. The intelligentsia, bourgeoisie and most petite bourgeoisie will all again flee.

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

Mar 18

1. The death of four generals in combat in a single war is unheard off. Four in three weeks is proof of just how dysfunctional the corrupt Russian army is and why helping Ukraine finish the job is in the US strategic interest. bbc.com/news/magazine-…

2. My best explanation for this is Putin’s behaves like a violent mob boss who, like a boss trapped under withering fire, sends his men out one at a time to be killed. No rational commander would plan an operation that contemplated constantly putting generals in harm’s way.

@WHNSC

3. Another reason for this may be that Putin has simply lost so many senior combat commanders at the colonel level (or even perhaps lower) that there simply is nobody else to send. Either way, it evidences a degree of dysfunction that should be exploited. @WHNSC @SecDef

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Tim Hogan 浩勤

@TimInHonolulu

Mar 18

1. We should help Ukraine arm brigades of light fast up-armored infantry. Fast, flexible & deployable technicals with Mark 19 grenade launchers and ATGMs. 50,000 fighters.

2. Just jerry rig regular vehicles like the Kurds used to before we gave them the light armored vehicles. The point is 50,000 well-armed Ukrainians going all Mad Max on the Russians could have every invader out of the area recently invaded by May. Then Donbass.

3. And finally Crimea. Belarus owes a price for its involvement. Ukraine needs to take out every road bridge and rail line near Ukraine that they can reach if it is used to supply the Russians. We need to put JDAMS on their planes if we can. MALDs, JSOWs and Harms too.

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