Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Mar 21 27 tweets 14 min read
NEW: "Not a whole lot of changes" on the ground by #Russia forces in #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

"We have seen some increased naval activity in the #BlackSea" per official, who says it may be linked to some of the shelling in & around #Odesa
More: #Russia has now launched +1,100 missile at #Ukraine

Use of #hypersonics?

"It's certainly possible" per a senior US defense official, calling use of such a missile a "head scratcher"

"There's not a whole lot of if practicality to it"
#Russia|n use of a hypersonic missile - "It could be they're running low on precision guided munitions...it could be they're trying to send a message to the West" per a senior US defense official

Says US cannot confirm or refute the Russian claims
NEW: #Russia classified communications faltering

"We do blv they [#Russia] are having command & control problems" per a senior US defense official "They just weren't fully prepared for operations of this intensity, for so long, on this many lines of attack"
More: "We're seeing them [#Russia] use a lot more unclassified communications..." due to problems with their classified communication systems, per a senior US defense official
#Russia-"They haven't achieved anything in terms of what we assessed to be their objectives" per a senior US defense official

Calls #Moscow's use of long-range fires (missiles/shelling) a "desperate attempt by them to gain some momentum" bcs "they are stuck where they are"
"What we're seeing is a near desperate attempt by the #Russia|ns to gain some momentum" in #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

Says some of Russia's recent actions could be attempt to create leverage for negotiations
"It is very clear that the #Ukrainians are showing no signs of stopping their resistance...no signs of slowing their attacks on the Russians" per a senior US defense official
#Belarus - US is NOT seeing any indications that Belarus is positioning troops or making moves in preparation to send troops into #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official
Update: first shipments of the latest US $800 million security assistance to #Ukraine -which includes switchblade drones- shud be arriving soon, per a senior US defense official

"The wheels are moving very quickly"
Per a senior US defense official, the US "is not standing in the way" of a 3rd country giving #Ukraine #MiG29s/fixed-wing fighters
US-#Russia deconfliction line - "we're still testing it every day" but senior US defense official says they are not aware of any information being passed or the need to pass any information

"It works," official says
#Russia|n drone that crashed in #Poland-"We don't blv it was an intentional act" per a senior US defense official

"The Russian lost the data link w/that drone..." official adds describing it as an accident
#Russia|n combat power in #Ukraine "at just below 90%" per a senior US defense official

"They're expending an awful lot but you have to remember they also built up an awful lot"

Official adds #Moscow continues to discuss bringing in reinforcements but no signs yet of movement
"Vast majority" of #Russia's combat power arrayed vs #Ukraine before the invasion is still available to #Putin, per a senior US defense official
No communication between @SecDef & his #Russia|n counterpart, per a senior US defense official
NEW: #Russia-"Clearly they're expending munitions, a lot of munitions" per a senior US defense official

BUT "They have a significant majority of their ballistic missile capability available...more than half of their air-launched cruise missile capability available"
NEW: US seeing failures w/#Russia's precision guided munitions - "a not insignificant number of failures"

"They're failing to launch or they're failing to hit the target or they're failing to detonate on contact" per a senior US defense official
"Not clear" that #Russia|n activity in the northern #BlackSea is a prelude to an amphibious landing/attack, per a senior US defense official
NEW: #Russia still unable to establish air superiority over #Ukraine due to "a very creative air defense posture by the #Ukrainians" per a senior US defense official
NEW: Air war over #Ukraine increasing over last 24-48 hours, per a senior US defense official

#Russia conducted +300 sorties in that time period, but US still seeing "risk aversion by a lot of Russian pilots" who are not flying only briefly into #Ukraine, per official
US says anecdotal evidence continues to come in "that they [#Russia] are suffering from morale issues inside the ranks" per a senior US defense official

"They did not expect this level of resistance. Some of them were not told what they were going to be doing inside #Ukraine"
#Ukraine 's forces-"This stiff defense that they're putting up did not just happen by accident" per a senior US defense official

"It was not just the stuff [security assistance" add the official "It was the training that was done" over the past 8 years
US still talking to allies & partners about getting #Ukraine "long-range air defense systems that they can use" per a senior US defense official
NEW: #Ukraine still has about 90% of its combat power available, thanks to int'l community helping to replenish it "in real time" per a senior US defense official
#Mariupol remains isolated - "almost all the way around" per a senior US defense official

#Russia likely trying to take the city as part of a bid "to cut off the extreme east of #Ukraine" & prevent Ukrainian forces there from shifting to defend #Kyiv, per official
NEW: Despite threats, NO #Russia|n attacks so far on ground shipments of security assistance to #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

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More from @jseldin

Mar 23
BREAKING: 7,000-15,000 #Russia|n troops likely killed in #Ukraine, per a @NATO official briefing reporters on condition of anonymity

Total losses -including wounded, captured or missing- could be in the 30,000-40,000 range

Estimates based on #Ukraine intel, observations
"The estimate we have is based on what the #Ukrainians tell us, what the #Russia|ns let us know intentionally or by mistake" per the @NATO official
#Ukraine fighting #Russia almost to a stalemate, per a @NATO official

"I don't know if you can go as far [as to say] stalemate but its clear that after 1 months Russia has achieved almost none of their strategic objectives"
Read 7 tweets
Mar 23
Happening now: @NATO SecGen @jensstoltenberg briefing before extraordinary Summit of NATO Heads of State Image
NEW: @NATO's @jensstoltenberg calls for beefed-up defense

"Major reinforcements to our security will require major investments in defense" he says. citing a "new sense of urgency bcs we cannot take peace for granted"
"There is a need to also address the long term consequences" per @NATO's @jensstoltenberg

"There is a need to reset our deterrence & defense...we wil do what is necessary to defend & protect all allies"
Read 21 tweets
Mar 23
NEW: US-#cyber-#Russia-#Ukraine-"My sense is that [US cyber efforts] they've been extremely important in informing the Ukrainians...and in disrupting attacks" by #Russia, @SenJackReed tells @GWUPMNS
Any chance US might feel compelled to intervene in #Ukraine?

@SenJackReed says possibly IF #Russia uses nuclear/chemical/biological weapons in a way that is seen as an attack on @NATO

"This is a NATO decision" he says of the scenario "It's going to be a very difficult call"
#Ukraine - "The quality of their fighting personnel is superb" per @SenJackReed

#Russia-"Their younger soldiers are not informed of what they're doing, where they are" or what to if commanders are eliminated, he says
Read 8 tweets
Mar 22
Happening now: @PentagonPresSec briefs reporters at the Pentagon Image
#Ukraine increasingly taking the fight to #Russia - "We have seen indications that the #Ukrainians are going a bit more on the offense now...particularly in the south, near #Kherson" per @PentagonPresSec
#Russia's nuclear posture - "We haven't seen anything that would lead us to conclude that we need to change our strategic deterrent posture" per @PentagonPresSec

Calls #Kremlin's nuclear rhetoric "dangerous...It's not the way a responsible nuclear power should act"
Read 13 tweets
Mar 22
"Peace is something that we need urgently. Justice is something we will need always" #Ukraine Amb @OMarkarova tells @USIP in remarks abt #Russia|n atrocities during the current war Image
"History repeats itself" per @OMarkarova, after noting anniversary of the creation of Nazi #Germany's 1st concentration camp

"We are talking abt atrocities, abt genocide, abt war crimes & crimes against humanity"
"These actions have no military objectives" per Amb @OMarkarova on #Russia|n bombardment of Ukrainian cities
Read 4 tweets
Mar 22
NEW: "#Russia has thus far manifestly failed to accomplish" its main objectives in invading #Ukraine, per @WHNSC's @JakeSullivan46

"It has thus far achieved the opposite"
"The brave citizens of #Ukraine are refusing to submit. they are fighting back" per @WHNSC's @JakeSullivan46

"Although #Russia may take more territory in these brutal military operations, it will never take the country away from the Ukrainian ppl"
"#Russia|n power & prestige has been badly depleted" per @WHNSC's @JakeSullivan46

"The Russian military has dramatically underperformed. The Russian economy has been rocked by powerful sanctions. The Russian high-tech & defense sectors are being choked off"
Read 14 tweets

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