Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Mar 23 12 tweets 11 min read
BREAKING: 7,000-15,000 #Russia|n troops likely killed in #Ukraine, per a @NATO official briefing reporters on condition of anonymity

Total losses -including wounded, captured or missing- could be in the 30,000-40,000 range

Estimates based on #Ukraine intel, observations
"The estimate we have is based on what the #Ukrainians tell us, what the #Russia|ns let us know intentionally or by mistake" per the @NATO official
#Ukraine fighting #Russia almost to a stalemate, per a @NATO official

"I don't know if you can go as far [as to say] stalemate but its clear that after 1 months Russia has achieved almost none of their strategic objectives"
MORE: #Russia-"They are stalled in #Kyiv. They are stalled in #Kharkiv. They are stalled in #Chernihiv" per @NATO official

"They are achieving more results in the south but the price of it is absolutely horrendous...What they do is #WorldWarII, 70 year old techniques"
MORE: #Mariupol-"They [#Russia] are carpet-bombing the city" per the @NATO official

"To reach this extreme, you need to be cornered & you need to be pushed to break all moral human rules to go to such brutality..."
NEW: Fears #Russia, #Putin could turn to weapons of mass destruction, even target @NATO very real

"He is dangerous" per NATO official "Putin & his close circle, they are absolutely reckless ppl. They don't care abt human life"
#Putin "has a deep hatred of our society, our values" warns @NATO official "The alliance is absolutely at risk"

Official warns Putin could launch direct attack on alliance "due to miscalculation," something #Russia has done a lot in #Ukraine...

Also potential for mistakes...
NEW: @NATO preparing for 2 main types of potential chemical weapons attacks by #Russia in #Ukraine, per official - a #falseflag operation or a chemical attack delivered by military means
The #Falseflag op would be "an accident on a chemical plant" per the @NATO official

"There is a lot of ammonia...of nitrates in the #Ukraine bcs this is useful in the agriculture industry" per official "If you have a massive release of those agents, it is very dangerous"
If #Putin, #Russia use the 2nd option -a military delivered chemical weapon

"This is mostly the neurotoxic agents" per @NATO official "When you use them, they are so characteristic that the attribution is immediate"
The @NATO official says a possible chemical attack by #Russia in #Ukraine comes down to, "Is Russia going to want to stay below the threshold of attribution?"
#Russia's use of #hypersonic weapons in #Ukraine may be backfiring

"They're giving away a lot more than they're probably gaining" per a 2nd @NATO official "When you use a weapon on something is not designed for, both sides can learn from that and we are"

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More from @jseldin

Mar 23
NEW: US now assesses #Russia has launched +1,200 missiles, per a senior US defense official

Adds some Russian forces moving on #Kyiv are digging in, creating defensive positions

NEW- #Ukraine has pushed back Russian forces moving on #Kyiv from the east
MORE: #Russia|n advance on #Chernihiv stalled & "in some places ... they are ceding ground" per a senior US defense official
#Donbas, eastern #Ukraine becoming focus of #Russia's military ops, per a senior US defense official

"There's been a lot of fighting...what we're seeing now is indications that Russia is really starting to prioritize" that front
Read 16 tweets
Mar 23
Happening now: @NATO SecGen @jensstoltenberg briefing before extraordinary Summit of NATO Heads of State
NEW: @NATO's @jensstoltenberg calls for beefed-up defense

"Major reinforcements to our security will require major investments in defense" he says. citing a "new sense of urgency bcs we cannot take peace for granted"
"There is a need to also address the long term consequences" per @NATO's @jensstoltenberg

"There is a need to reset our deterrence & defense...we wil do what is necessary to defend & protect all allies"
Read 21 tweets
Mar 23
NEW: US-#cyber-#Russia-#Ukraine-"My sense is that [US cyber efforts] they've been extremely important in informing the Ukrainians...and in disrupting attacks" by #Russia, @SenJackReed tells @GWUPMNS
Any chance US might feel compelled to intervene in #Ukraine?

@SenJackReed says possibly IF #Russia uses nuclear/chemical/biological weapons in a way that is seen as an attack on @NATO

"This is a NATO decision" he says of the scenario "It's going to be a very difficult call"
#Ukraine - "The quality of their fighting personnel is superb" per @SenJackReed

#Russia-"Their younger soldiers are not informed of what they're doing, where they are" or what to if commanders are eliminated, he says
Read 8 tweets
Mar 22
Happening now: @PentagonPresSec briefs reporters at the Pentagon
#Ukraine increasingly taking the fight to #Russia - "We have seen indications that the #Ukrainians are going a bit more on the offense now...particularly in the south, near #Kherson" per @PentagonPresSec
#Russia's nuclear posture - "We haven't seen anything that would lead us to conclude that we need to change our strategic deterrent posture" per @PentagonPresSec

Calls #Kremlin's nuclear rhetoric "dangerous...It's not the way a responsible nuclear power should act"
Read 13 tweets
Mar 22
"Peace is something that we need urgently. Justice is something we will need always" #Ukraine Amb @OMarkarova tells @USIP in remarks abt #Russia|n atrocities during the current war
"History repeats itself" per @OMarkarova, after noting anniversary of the creation of Nazi #Germany's 1st concentration camp

"We are talking abt atrocities, abt genocide, abt war crimes & crimes against humanity"
"These actions have no military objectives" per Amb @OMarkarova on #Russia|n bombardment of Ukrainian cities
Read 4 tweets
Mar 22
NEW: "#Russia has thus far manifestly failed to accomplish" its main objectives in invading #Ukraine, per @WHNSC's @JakeSullivan46

"It has thus far achieved the opposite"
"The brave citizens of #Ukraine are refusing to submit. they are fighting back" per @WHNSC's @JakeSullivan46

"Although #Russia may take more territory in these brutal military operations, it will never take the country away from the Ukrainian ppl"
"#Russia|n power & prestige has been badly depleted" per @WHNSC's @JakeSullivan46

"The Russian military has dramatically underperformed. The Russian economy has been rocked by powerful sanctions. The Russian high-tech & defense sectors are being choked off"
Read 14 tweets

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