Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 26-29: The past 96 hours has seen a lot of activity throughout the UTW, Russia is actively transitioning to a protracted defense, with offensive operations continuing in the Donbas. Ukrainian forces counterattack in Kyiv. #UkraineRussiaWar

2/ After a month of war, the Kremlin has faced the reality that their invasion has failed and it is time to retool their war effort for a more protracted conflict, this is according to the head of Pres. Zelensky’s office, Myhailo Podoiyak. t.me/M_Podolyak/29

3/ According to Podoiyak’s statement, Russian leadership have come to terms that they do not have the resources or forces on hand to resume offensive operations. They need time to replace losses and reduce domestic dissent. The Kremlin show no sign of changing course.

4/ Humanitarian Impact. Refugees in various European countries exceeds 4.2 million, with over 6.5 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. Russian injustices against the Ukrainian populace multiple by the day; kidnappings and seizure of property continues.

5/ Weather assessment. Forecasted rain and wintery mix for 5 of the next 10 days will adversely affect aerospace and ground operations, potentially slowing down offensive momentum. Temperatures generally will remain between 13/0 C.

6/ Kyiv Front assessment. Ukrainian forces initiated a series of counterattacks west of Kyiv and against the occupied suburbs of Irpin, Bucha, Vorzel, and Moshchun on 22 March. These attacks are most likely designed to regain as much territory in NW Kyiv as possible. #KyivNow

7/ Ukrainian officials claimed late on 23 March that Russian forces have been encircled in Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel, satellite imagery & FIRMS data seem to suggest this is not yet the case; though it may become a reality if these counterattacks continue and make more progress.

8/ Sumy Front Assessment. Russian forces still struggle to secure their logistics base. Ukrainian counterattacks throughout this front is a case study in deep operations, though with the use of small-scale mobile light infantry to reduce Russian logistical abilities. #Sumy

9/ Chernihiv AO. Chernihiv has been a major obstacle for Russian forces since the beginning of the invasion. The Russian will not succeed in taking the city by force any time soon, efforts here will continue to hinder Russian offensive action against east Kyiv. #Chernihiv

10/ Sumy AO. The Russian military’s failure to capture Sumy in the opening days of the war has seriously impacted its ability to extend effective operational reach into east Kyiv. It is highly likely that a Rus false-flag chemical attack could occur here to justify their wide use

11/ Donbas Front assessment. The Russian military appears to have made this front a priority for offensive operations, as it is the only area that any recent success has been sustained, although progress remains slow and difficult. #Kharkiv #Izium #Donbas #Mariupol

12/ Kharkiv AO. Russian forces have conducted no significant action in the Kharkiv area over the past 96 hrs. The buildup and reconstitution of forces in the area are most likely meant to renew operations to fix Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv to deny their employment elsewhere.

13/ Donets Line. Izium has been the focal point of intense fighting over the past 96 hrs. The Russians have yet to capture Izium in its entirety, it is unclear if the Ukrainians will be able to hold this part of the line. Expect the Russians to continue to reinforce this effort.

14/ Mariupol. The Russian assault of Mariupol has been a mix of standard practices toward seizing an urban area and siege tactics learned in Syria targeting the civilian population to coerce surrender. Ukraine’s ability to hold the city continues to sap Russian resources.

15/ Southern Front. The Russian advance on Mykolaiyv has been defeated. Ukraine’s limited counterattacks seem to have successfully broken the Russian ability to advance beyond the Southern Bug River to threaten Odesa. Russia is now focused on retaining gains made in Kherson.

16/ Aerospace Assessment. Over the past 96 hrs. VKS has increased the pace and extent of its strikes throughout Ukraine to break the UAF and Ukraine’s IAD. To date an estimated 1100 PGMs have been used. These efforts are still falling short.

https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1506293934968160259?s=20&t=mBLrWho95c9qspHaRa-RNw

17/ The UAF is punching well above its weight and can inflict serious losses against Russian forces. The successful strike against Russian ships in Mariupol make this evident. Yet the UAF must preserve combat power in the face of increased VKS activity.

https://twitter.com/dpeleschuk/status/1506355489923346438?s=20&t=mBLrWho95c9qspHaRa-RNw

18/ Information War. The Kremlin has a serious problem mobilizing domestic support. What is worrying is the messaging state media is flooding all approved media outlets with, namely framing the war as an existential crisis for Russia’s survival.

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1506315902169534464?s=20&t=mBLrWho95c9qspHaRa-RNw

19/ It is dangerous to ignore statements like the pervious one. With messaging claiming Ukraine and the West are collaborating to use biological or chemical agents against Russia, and that their goal is to dismember Russia, the war could easily escalate into a wider conflict.

20/ Battle Damage Assessment. There has been a lot of discussion over the past 96 hours of new estimates of Russian combat losses, especially NATO estimates. Whatever the true numbers are what is clear is that high-intensity combat is unforgiving.

21/ Russian and Ukrainian forces have sustained high rates of casualties, the gradual slowing pace of offensive operations is indicative of this. Both sides are entering into a period of struggling to replace manpower and equipment losses.

22/ But for Russia, this might be more difficult, as we are already seeing evidence of a defense-industry under increasing strain from being able to maintain pace with battlefield losses. More troubling for Russia is it struggle in finding willing recruits to refill its ranks.

23/ Ukraine must balance between pushing for more Western support, and not pushing so hard it causes unnecessary strain with NATO and other partner nations. For NATO, there is increasing likelihood Russia will directly target aid shipments to maintain battlefield equilibrium.

24/ I will soon be posting an in-depth look at the first month of the war (one reason why I haven't posted recently), analyzing how the Ukrainian response to the Russian invasion resulted in a strategic victory for Ukraine & why the Russian military has so far failed.

25/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.

26/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.