1/4
There is indeed a moral trade-off, lives matter more.
But there is also the long view on the national security trade-off, *including* its economic aspects. And this is where @OlafScholz is mistaken for the #German case.
A temporary recession may occur, but can be dampened.
2/4
Gas-dependent industries can be furloughed and import subst. for industrial goods can be arranged. Together with rationing and price & tax management, a lot could be done.
If only for oil, dropping fuel taxes would go very far - they are enormous in Germany.
3/4
And there's a deeper national security question. How exactly would #Germany survive in case of a broader war? Isn't it high time to learn the hard way how to live without RU energy? If not now, then when?
And then there's the issue of forcing RU into better behaviour.
4/4
With significant losses in #Ukraine, we have a real chance to teach #Putin a lesson. Break his economy and his armed forces. Now.
The #Russian state must be made to pay an unbearable price, so that such aggression and criminality stops. The world is watching.
END

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More from @EHunterChristie

Apr 6
1/7
Why I agree with Anton:
One cannot accept nuclear threats as a cover for aggression. If yes, then aggression cannot be deterred and will not stop. The solution is the resolve to fight a just war in spite of all threats.
The aggressor, preferring survival, will retreat.
2/7
The resolve to fight a just war is the response to the worst case scenario of a nuclear power carrying out wars of annihilation. The analytical insight is that only defenders facing an actual risk of annihilation are in an existential struggle, whereas aggressors are not.
3/7
Being prevented from carrying out a genocide, or an invasion, is never an existential problem. Therefore, Putin's war against Ukraine is not existential. He has ample opportunities to survive without it.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 4
1/6
@marceldirsus As an economist I understand that, but I strongly suspect there's a lack of imagination here. DEU policy making in my experience very reliant on asking industry point-blank what they think (want). Lack of state leadership, too much listening, not enough leading
2/6
Here's a few ideas I suspect are insufficiently studied:
-Re-think gas rationing concept if shortage: some industries to furlough 12-24 months, state to pay maintenance and salaries and, crucially, subsidise replacement imports for what they produce to plug supply chains
3/6
-For gas for residential and buildings: ask more effort from them, there's popular will to make sacrifices as polls show. So in sum, more gas for industries that truly need it, less for households and industries that can be furloughed.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 30
1/8
Western support to #Ukraine is good but insufficient. There appears to be a strategic miscalculation based on a lack of resolve to take on heavier economic costs and to ensure a comprehensive #Russian defeat. Ukraine is *already* acting as a shield and protector for Europe.
2/8
But this is neither the time for cynically dragging out the conflict at the cost of Ukrainian cities and lives, nor for dirty compromises at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty. Our values must mean something. And our strategic interest is clear.
3/8
Our short-term goals should be:
A: A defeated and humbled Russian state with diminished and demoralised armed forces
B: A net gain for Ukraine in terms of its sovereign control of its territory and in terms of military prestige and honour
Read 8 tweets
Mar 12
1/ Viewed from the perspective of #EU & #NATO members only, I fear that a strict policy of non-intervention is demoralising for us and emboldening for #Russia and #China. What do our governments think the world will look like in the next few years if Russia ultimately prevails?
2/ We should not underestimate the demoralising effects on the West of the suffering of the Ukrainian nation and of the brazen and massive violations of International Law and of every principle of civilised behaviour now pursued by the #fascist #dictatorship in #Moscow.
3/ Our nations and governments must be fully mobilised in the service of what we hold most dear, not only in the defence of our territories, but also in the defence of the freedom of #Ukraine. Stepping behind the triple red line of #NATO is not enough.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 10
1/ Not comfortable with tentative red lines on things that haven't happened yet, while other actions by the aggressor already destroy everything.
Syria: red line failed, and was not enforced. And counterfactual of red line working: no chemical weapons but destruction anyway.
2/ If West is serious about intervention, first decide firmly in secret. Define not a red line but a goal which necessarily implies enforcement and contact with the enemy (otherwise it's not an intervention)
Then don't hope they will move, be fully clear you'll make them.
3/ Doing so with a clearly limited goal but one that nevertheless tips the balance of the conflict could be highly valuable to the Western cause. So, the consideration of what limited goals could achieve that should be homework for military experts.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 9
1/ It is once again a time for choosing for the Western world. Our governments appear to be stabilising the #sanctions regime and stalling on the range of #weapons to #Ukraine. Insufficient pressure is dangerous. As we can see, #Russian aggression continues.
2/ Fundamentally, the more the forces of the aggressor state gain ground and surround cities, the more harm they can and will do against innocent civilians. But the more the invaders are pushed back and suffer high losses in men and materiel, the better.
3/ For this reason, I advocate a quantum leap in #military assistance to #Ukraine, covering a broader volume and range of equipment and training (locations and modalities for specialists to determine).
Covert actions in concert with #Ukraine's defenders could also be useful.
Read 5 tweets

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