Thread by @jseldin

NEW: US assesses #Russia did strike the train station in #Kramatorsk #Ukraine- "We are not buying the denial by the #Russians" per a senior US defense official

Says Russia used a SS21 ballistic missile

#Russia|n forces pulled from around #Kyiv, northern #Ukraine, "see some units making their to #Belgorod...#Valuiki" in #Russia for resupply, refit, per a senior US defense official

#Russia's sortie count in past 24 hours - 240-250 with "overwhelming weight & focus" of strikes in #Mariupol & eastern #Donbas, per a senior US defense official

Day 44 of #Russia|n invasion of #Ukraine, +1,500 Russian missile launches, per a senior US defense official

#Russia efforts to refit, resupply troops for offensive in eastern #Ukraine-"We don't know for sure how long this is going to take...some units are much more devastated than others" per a sr US defense official

Says some Russian units essentially "eradicated"

NEW: 44 days into invasion of #Ukraine, #Russia still has not solved its logistical issues, per a senior US defense official

"We don't believe that in general this is going to be a speedy process for them" official says of refit, resupply of troops pulled from n. #Ukraine

NE grouping of #Russia|n forces "we have seen them plus up" by about 10 BTGs, per a senior US defense official "We have seen them increase"

US assesses #Russia now has +40 battalion tactical groups arrayed vs eastern #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official

US still analyzing SS21 ballistic missile strike on train station in #Kramatorsk #Ukraine, per a senior US defense official when asked if the strike involved cluster munitions

#Wagner Group is about at 1,000 ppl "focused in the #Donbas...particularly in and around #Donetsk" per a senior US defense official

Of total #Russian combat power arrayed vs #Ukraine 44 days ago, "We estimate they [#Russia] are between 80 & 85% of what they had" per a senior US defense official

#Russia|n refit - "We've seen anecdotal evidence that some of these battalion tactical groups are doing what they can to try to replace manpower on their own" per a senior US defense official

Some BTGs may be combining, also new conscripts on the horizon for #Russia

New: indications #Russia readying mobilization of reservists to fight in #Ukraine - perhaps to recruit +60,000 troops for the effort, per a senior US defense official

Train station struck by #Russia in #Kramatorsk #Ukraine "is a major rail hub in the eastern part of Ukraine...it is in a very strategic location" near #Izyum" per a senior US defense official

"The fighting has been bloody, it's been stiff" per a senior US defense official on 8 years of fighting between #Russia-#Ukraine in the #Donbas

"This will be a knife fight...very bloody" per the official "This could go on for a long time"

"We've seen indications of some [#Russia|n] units that are literally for all intents & purposes, eradicated" per a sr US defense official "There's just nothing left...except a handful of troops ..."

"We've seen others that are down 30% manpower or even higher"