#Shanghai#COVID#lockdown means that intercity travel to Shanghai is practically zero, weaker than during Spring 2020. But many neighbourhoods were locked down weeks before that; travel to Shanghai started to decline in early March - THREAD (1/4) #ZeroCovid
Outbound travel from Shanghai is similarly weak.
Subway usage remains near zero, too. In 2019 and 2021, around 10mn people took the subway every day at this time of the year. In recent days, that number has been <1,500 people.
Road congestion tells the same story.
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1. THREAD: Series by @GeneralTheorist
*To catch a falling knife: US Treasuries and the Fed*
The continued US deficit in 2021 puts Treasuries in focus, with 10y yield already having moved about 80bps higher to 170bps, & a number of weak primary auctions in Q1. What’s going on?
2. In a series of Substack blogs, we attempt to frame the unique situation in the US this year. Post-GFC and last year, the US fiscal deficit was the natural counterpart to private sector surpluses.
3. In 2021, the Federal deficit remains high despite the acceleration in private consumption and investment on vaccines and lockdown ending. How to reconcile both sectors attempting to move into deficit?
Below @WSJ@jamestareddy released an article on #China#DigitalCurrency . Check out our Head of Asia Pacific, Grant Wilson's blogs on our Substack - Money: Inside and Out - on the subject (THEAD). Subscribe to our Substack at pinned tweet 📌#CBDC
China's digital currency is a game changer (Part 2).
"We have received an enormous amount of feedback on China's digital currency project since January. We will be writing each month here as a consequence." moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/p/chinas-digit…
#UK#Covid19 press conference detailed national #vaccine plan to Feb 15-deadline to have 15 million people in 4 main groups have appointments to start #vaccination. 4 groups: 1. elder care residents/staff 2. 70yrs+ 3. frontline NHS staff 4. clinically very vulnerable. (Thread)
Re: resources: #UK plans to have +1000 GP led #vaccination sites, 223 hospital sites, 7 giant #vaccine centers, & 200 community pharmacies to administer the vaccines. According to @BorisJohnson this will allow UK to administer 100s of thousands of vaccines daily by Jan 15.
1.5 million people in #UK have received 1st vaccine dose. Chart: country comparison: #COVID#vaccines administered per 100k people. So far, #UK leads. It has 3 vaccines cleared for emergency use ($PFE, $MRNA, $AZN) vs 2 in US. @martin_lynge is helping us track.
November was a huge month for EM ex-China portfolio flows and many are wondering will this continue and what are the implications for EMFX and the dollar. THREAD @adam_tooze@MarketInterest@jturek18 1/5
On flows, it is important to keep both the cyclical and structural stories in mind. Flows to EM ex-China (especially equity flows) have been weakening for years. And increasingly China accounts for debt inflows equal to the rest of EM combined. @michaelxpettis@M_C_Klein 2/5
Whether we are going to get a big sustained rebound in EM flows is likely a function of the growth regime as the chart below shows (the two are correlated). Even a return to the low growth regime of 2014-19 suggests some room to run yet. @MarketInterest 3/5
(1/5) Senior Advisor @Brad_Setser has joined the Biden-Harris Transition Team as a member of the Office of the United States Trade Representative agency review team. As such, Brad will be on leave from his role at @ExanteData. #BidenHarris2020
(2/5) Brad joined @ExanteData in mid-2019. While with Exante, he remained on fellowship with @CFR_org. Brad has been analyzing global capital movements for more than 20 years, and we regard him as one of the world’s top experts on this topic. exantedata.com/announcement-b…
(3/5) "We wish Brad the best in this important policy role. We have learnt a lot from Brad's deep knowledge of balance of payment trends in many important economies, and we are grateful for his contributions to @ExanteData in 2019 and 2020." - Founder @jnordvig
(1/4) Update re #ECB Q-end balance sheet released today. Confirms adjustments to asset holdings which distorted the flow of asset purchases published Monday. *Applying these corrections shows PEPP purchases during wk ended 2 Oct were EUR13.1BN & total asset purchases EUR20.6BN*.
(2/4) This still represents a softening in the pace of net asset purchases from EUR29.5BN the previous week and the lowest for 4 weeks, but redemptions of EUR8BN across all programs during the week also weighed on the flow. Updated chart below:
(3/4) Eurosystem bank reserves/deposits increased EUR247BN during the week, driven by net EUR157BN increase in PETLTRO claims, EUR77BN reduction in gov deposits, & EUR12BN addition of liquidity due to asset purchases (adjusted.)