THREAD. Day 52d since #RussiaInvadedUkraine. How does situation look on the ground? Below find overview on 1)military situation. 2)developments in temporary occupied areas 3) negotiations 4)what to expect ⬇️1/
1)Military situation. #Russia seriously changed its tactics. After failure of RU land operation in the North (#Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv) RU is concentrating its efforts in fixing its presence in the South, occupation of whole #Donbas and ensuring land corridor btw Russia and Crimea 2/
Donbas is needed for #Russia for 2 reasons. 1)Ideological: to show success before May,9. If #Putin can’t occupy even Donbas (that is not enough for RU), he is complete looser and propaganda won’t explain it. 2)Military: RU wants to weaken the most efficient part of UA army 3/
Depending on results of battle for #Donbas, Russia will decide, whether it can attack Dnipropetrovska and Zaporizhzhya regions. While in Donbas “classic” direct fight btw two armies is happening, rest of Ukraine is fired by missiles, predominantly. Thus, no safety yet anywhere 4/
In Donbas #Russia tries to break the defense line of #Ukraine for ar.4 weeks already, but did’t succeed. Occupied areas in Luhansk obl. were either consciously left by UA army, or lacked army divisions in general. Thus, Russia didn’t win them in a battle.5/
Luhansk oblast, where the most serious battles are taking place: Rubizhne, Popasna, Syeverodonetsk, Kreminna are bravely defended by #Ukraine, though are being heavily destroyed by #Russian artillery and bombs. 6/
Thus, from military point of view: Russia is concentrating in Donbas, but is not going to stop there. UA army is effectively defending Donbas. New weapons supply+skills of UA army are going to enable UA army to keep control over #Donbas.7/
Situation in temporary occupied areas. #Russia is still failing to create any stable occupational administrations. There are 3 reasons for that 1)Insufficient number of local collaborators, 2) continuing resistance and protesting of locals 3)ongoing counteroffensive of UA army 8/
UA army is constantly keeping pressure on RU troops in the South. Perspective of liberation of #Kherson is considered as real, and any stable occupational regime isn’t possible under these circumstances. #Russia can’t repeat here #Donbas scenario of 2014 9/
#Russia is terrorizing locals in all occupied or encircled settlements. Pre-trial detentiob centers are overcrowded in Kherson by captured pro-#Ukrainian protesters. First violent rapes cases were reported in Kherson even before #Bucha, and now situation can be much worse 10/
#Deportation is massive and forceful in occupied areas. Accord. to @ZelenskyyUa, around 500 th.of #Ukrainians were already deported to Russia incl. appr. 130 th.of kids. #Putin has signed a decree on sending UA people to far and/or depressive regions of Russia. 11/
In particular, accord. to #Putin Decree, 100 thousands of Ukrainians have to be relocated sent to Syberia, Polar Circle, Far East, Northern Caucasus (Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia). independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
In #Russia deported Ukrainians are immediately deprived of UA documents. Without proper documents for several months, went far from Western borders of RU, without money and in hostile environment, deported Ukrainians will hardly be able to escape/leave the country. #WarCrimes 13/
#Negotiations have no prospects in coming weeks. Everything will be decided on the ground by military means. Political agreement is neither needed for #Russia yet, nor acceptable and reasonable for #Ukraine. Talks will go on, but can be successful only about exchange of POW 14/
Western partners of #Ukraine has been seriously changing their tactics. From limited support and fear to send “too lethal” weapons, they understood, that army of #Ukraine is efficient and capable of stopping and even defeating #Russia. They start sending heavy weapons 15/
What’s next in coming weeks? Hard battle in Donbas, air attacks on the rest of #Ukraine, oppression and terror of locals in the East and South and high resistance in response to that terror. Higher pressure from @ZelenskyyUa on the West to receive more needed weapons 16/
#Russia still prevails in number of military vehicles and weapons, though hardly can find enough skilled and motivated soldiers to use it in Donbas. #Ukraine’s army has all chances to win the battle. /end
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