Dave Keating Profile picture
Apr 20 48 tweets 17 min read
The 1st and only debate between President #EmmanuelMacron and far-right challenger #MarineLePen in the #presidentielles2022 campaign is about to start.

Watch it live, in English, here:
#LePen had a disastrous performance in her debate with #Macron in 2017. She needs to hit it out of the park tonight to change the momentum now.

There was a brief moment at the 1st round where the gap between them was narrowing, but since then the momentum has been with Macron. Image
#LePen has drawn the right to speak first.

"I will be the president of justice," she says. "Brotherhood is what bonds the French people together. We need to rally around a collective platform" Image
As an American it's still weird to me that the candidates in a debate in France directly face each other.

Interestingly, while Le Pen looked at Macron while she was speaking 'to the French people' (and he looks back), Macron alternates between looking at moderators and her. Image
The 1st question is about #PurchasingPower & #CostOfLiving.

This has been the issue #LePen has hit the most in her campaign. She accuses Macron of increasing cost of living with his policies, such as his climate policies. Image
A core policy difference early in the debate is their differing solutions for rising energy prices.

She wants to ditch VAT on fuel, he wants to set a cap on fuel prices. Image
Le Pen insists she's also for price caps, but Macron reminds her that she voted against it. She says she did so because she wanted a different type of cap.

Then she says rising energy prices in France are the fault of Germany because they're so dependent on Russian gas (🤷‍♂️). Image
It's early on but Le Pen already seems to be getting flummoxed by numbers and policy details. It's reminiscent of 2017.

That being said, the first topic (purchasing power) was very technical and most viewers probably come away not sure who was right or wrong. Image
Now they've moved on to foreign policy. Le Pen asked if France should go further in helping #Ukraine

"Let me start by expressing my solidarity and absolute compassion for the Ukrainian people. Russia's invasion is unacceptable" she says. She says Macron's efforts deserve support Image
#LePen says that she (like #Orban) is against any ban on Russian oil and gas, because it would hurt France more than it would hurt Russia.

"Russia can just sell their oil and gas to other countries"
Le Pen says if France is too harsh with Russia, "I am concerned that this will throw Russia into the arms of China, they will become such allies in the future that they will become a superpower, economically and maybe even militarily." Image
Macron points out that what Le Pen is saying (about support for Ukraine) is the opposite of how her MEPs have voted in the European Parliament.

He notes she was one of the first politicians in the EU to recognise Russia's annexation of Crimea.
"Obviously when there are brave decisions to make you and your allies aren't in attendance," says Macron.

She counters by taking out a piece of paper with a tweet from her printed out on it where she said she supports a Ukraine free of Russian, American and EU influence.
Macron brings up the Russian money Le Pen has taken to finance her campaign.

She complains that no French bank would loan her money, so she had to get it from Russia. She says many French people get loans

"They get their loan from a French bank, they don't go to Russia" he says Image
Macron asks Le Pen why she still hasn't paid back Russian loans she got in 2015.

"We are a political party with not a lot of resources and there's honor in that" she insists. She accuses Macron of stopping her from getting a French loan and forcing her to go to Russia (untrue).
Now they've moved on to the EU.

"I am convinced that our sovereignty is both national and European," #Macron says. "With Europe we will be more independent" [from 🇷🇺🇨🇳🇺🇸 etc]

"We need a stronger and more integrated Europe."
"There is no European sovereignty because there is no European people," #LePen responds "There is only a French people"

"I was as an MEP...why didn't I see France fighting for the French?"

"Maybe you didn't go to parliament often enough" #Macron responds. (she rarely showed up) Image
"I want to change the EU from the inside...and I will do that together with allies," Le Pen says, probably referring to #Orban.

Macron says it's not up to her to change what the EU is, that it is a shared project together with others and France cannot dictate what it is.
Macron points out that what Le Pen is proposing is the end of free movement in 🇪🇺. If France doesn't allow Europeans to come in to live and work in 🇫🇷, it means French people also can't go work in Belgium or anywhere else.
Le Pen says Macron is "Europe-centric" and trying to turn France into a "continental power" rather than a "global power". France should be connecting more with its former colonies in Africa, she says.

Sounds remarkably like the argument of #Brexit-backers.
Now they're talking about #Covid19. Macron says small business owners are grateful for the government support they received during the pandemic.

Le Pen says they are not grateful because they shouldn't have been shut down in the first place. The Covid restrictions were wrong. Image
Le Pen says Macron caused people to lose their jobs because they refused to get vaccinated.

She seems to suggest she will give them money for the hardship these unvaccinated people endured.
Le Pen asked for her position on #ClimateChange.

"Firstly no more hypocrisy" she says. "Free trade economic models are responsible for most emissions"

"We can't seriously claim we will tackle the problem while refusing to admit imports account for 53% of GHG emissions"
Le Pen says French people should eat French food, and this will combat climate change.

"The products that we import do not meet the standards we have set as a society," she adds. Image
Macron says Le Pen's climate change policies make no sense. While she says eating French food will fight climate change, she wants to support fossil fuels.

"You are climate-sceptic, that's very obvious," he tells her. "You said yourself climate neutrality by 2050 can't happen." Image
Le Pen accuses Macron of trying to shut down nuclear plants while in Holland's government, then changing tact once he became president and becoming a fervent nuclear supporter.

"We worked on restructuring the nuclear sector and saved the industry," counters Macron.
Le Pen says nuclear will be key to solving climate change. She wants to dismantle wind farms because they're intermittent - no new investment in wind

Macron wants big investment in onshore and offshore wind. "Nuclear power plants built now would only come into operation in 2035"
Le Pen's platform, which calls for dismantling wind farms, would cost the public an enormous amount of money, Macron says.

She says the operators would pay. France's fishing industry would be ruined by offshore wind turbines, she says.

"Honestly, come on," Macron responds.
"Wind turbines are ugly and they ruin our landscapes," says #LePen, channelling #Trump (he's probably said that exact sentence).

She will dismantle wind turbines and make the operators pay rather than the French taxpayer, she insists. "Because this is something the French want." Image
Now they've moved on to digital and innovation.

"I believe that at the EU level that we need to treat digital the same way to treated airspace," says Le Pen. "We created airbus, we created rockets, we need to do the same thing."

She says the EU should create a European Google.
On innovation: "If we want a market of equal size [to 🇺🇸] then we need to act at European level," Macron points out. France alone can't compete.

"Anyone who's against Europe is against developing giant companies," Macron tells Le Pen.
"The EU didn't invent Airbus,"#LePen scoffs.

"You're right, it was the Franco-German partnership, which you want to break apart," #Macron responds.
They're now talking about law & order.

#LePen: "Our country's in dire straights, and I'm being careful on the terminology I use - we are faced with barbaric behaviour. things are getting wilder & wilder"

"Even deep in the countryside, people say there's insecurity everywhere" Image
"People are stealing gas, siphoning it off from the tank. People are stealing sheep," says #LePen. "People are afraid"

"Unbridled mass immigration is a problem we must solve. I say this clearly: that worsens insecurity in our country" Image
"I want a referendum for the people of France, the goal being to radically change immigration in our country" says #LePen

"The French should get to decide who comes to France, who stays, who leaves. We need to uphold the law and deport illegal immigrations, felons and criminals"
The new softer face of Le Pen seems to be going out the window now. "We must be firm and tough on crime" she says.

"The French feel that because of a lack of resources there's no security. People are allowed to do whatever they want."
"Law enforcement has suffered quite a bit from the contempt shown to them by your government, the doubts you expressed about them" #LePen tells #Macron.

"So they need to be equipped, rearmed morally and physically."
The answer to insecurity is more prison and less house arrest, says Le Pen.

"A lot of judges are hesitant to hand out long prison terms because there isn't enough space in the prisons. So we need to open more".
Macron says in his second term they will train more police officers to identify the sources of crime.

"We will be able to create 200 more gendarme brigades for the rural areas of France," he says.
"The justice system will only work if the sentences are effective," says Macron.

"But what's the point of putting people in prison if they're just going to be hanging around with other prisoners who have committed more serious crimes?"
Both candidates are asked if they will ban the head scarf for Muslim women.

"I believe that the terrorist risk are still extremely high," Le Pen answers. "Islamism is present in our country. I'm not fighting Islam the religion, I fight Islamist ideology."
Le Pen doesn't answer the direct question about headscarves. She talks about shutting down mosques.

Pressed by the moderator to answer, she says yes, because "headscarves are forced on women by islamists" even if the wearers won't admit it.
Macron tells Le Pen: "What I find concerning with your train of thought is where it leads. You were asked about the veil, then you talked about Islamism then about foreigners."

"Your train of thought doesn't hold up. We're talking about wearing a religious symbol."
"French society is a secular society since 1905," Macron says. "Therefor with me as president, we won't ban the headscarf, or the kippa, or any sign of religion in public space."

"Because if we go down your avenue we'd ban all forms of religious signs" he tells Le Pen.
"In schools we ban the veil because we are shaping minds," Macron says. "But in the open street, if you apply the ban in the suburbs, then you are just going to create civil war."

"Are you saying those people wouldn't be OK with complying with the law?" asks Le Pen.
"We would be the first country in the world to ban religious symbols, is that the country you want to have?" Macron asks Le Pen.

"We will be the first country in the world to do a lot of things [under my presidency]" responds Le Pen.
"In your France, you would have police officers running down the street chasing girls wearing hijabs or boys wearing the kippah," Macron tells Le Pen.

"We already have police harassing people about not wearing masks" responds Le Pen.

"You're not taking this seriously," he says.
Macron says the full headscarf ban in all public spaces in Le Pen's platform would mean many people would be banned from public life.

"You can't say that a headscarf ban is a ban on radical Islamism," he tells her.

"Yes I can" she responds. Image

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More from @DaveKeating

Apr 20
🇪🇺Council President @CharlesMichel giving a press conference with 🇺🇦President @ZelenskyyUa now in #Kyiv.

Zelensky says he personally appreciates Michel’s visit despite the security challenges.
video.consilium.europa.eu/event/en/25730 Image
Zelensky: “On 🇪🇺 membership we have discussed that this is a priority for our country.”

“We are waiting, we have answered the questionnaire. So we are waiting on the meeting on this very important issue for our country” Image
🇪🇺Council President Michel: “This morning I went to #Borodyanka to see the situation with my own eyes. There are no words to explain what I feel… these are atrocities, war crimes”

“It must be punished. They must pay for what they have done there any in many other cities in 🇺🇦” Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 13
🇸🇪#Sweden and 🇫🇮#Finland's prime ministers have just held a joint press conference outlining plans to join #NATO.

🇫🇮 expected to move first. PM Marin says she won't give a timetable but "it will happen quite fast—within weeks, not within months, we will have the discussion"
🇫🇮&🇸🇪"will deliver decisions independently" says Marin. Assumption has always been 🇸🇪 can't join unless 🇫🇮 does 1st.

"Of course...I would prefer that we would make the similar kinds of choices for the whole region—but it's up to Sweden to decide for yourself"
Sweden's SvD reports that the ruling Social Democrats have already decided to apply for NATO membership (but must wait for Finland to decide to do so first), and will submit the application at the Madrid summit at end of June.
svd.se/a/Wj5gW2/uppgi…
Read 8 tweets
Apr 10
BREAKING: #Macron beats #LePen in French #presidentielles2022 first round election.

A larger spread than 2017. Image
These are exit polls so the actual result we'll know in time, but we know that for sure it will be Macron and Le Pen in the 2nd round.

It's also the worst performance ever for a Socialist Party candidate, according to the exit polls. Image
The full results from the 8pm projection, which has historically proven to end up being accurate.

It is the worst result in history for both the 'big tent' mainsteam parties - the Socialists and the Gaulists.

It is (I think?) the highest vote in history for the far-left. Image
Read 13 tweets
Apr 8
It’s really feeling like the 🇩🇪🇦🇹 position against an 🇪🇺ban on #RussianOil is no longer tenable, and they know it.

Feeling in Brussels right now is: these two demanded drastic sacrifice in 🇵🇹🇮🇪🇬🇷🇪🇸 after mistakes were made there. 🇩🇪🇦🇹 must make sacrifices now for greater good.
The counter-argument is that the negative economic effects of an oil embargo wouldn’t just effect 🇩🇪🇦🇹, they would effect all of 🇪🇺 by destabilising the economy and causing energy prices to surge.

But you can understand why 🇵🇹🇮🇪🇬🇷🇪🇸 are sceptical of such contagion arguments.
Even if 🇩🇪🇦🇹 agree a #RussianOil ban (which would necessarily need to have a long phase-in) the remaining question is 🇭🇺.

#Orban still says he’ll veto any ban on 🇷🇺 oil or gas. Would he risk destroying his alliance with 🇵🇱 for that? Would 🇩🇪🇦🇹 be happy to hide behind his veto?
Read 5 tweets
Apr 1
Speaking after 🇪🇺🇨🇳#EUChinaSummit, @EUCOpresident Michel says this was "not business as usual"

"It was a wartime summit. We are living through the gravest security crisis in Europe since World War 2. Putin's war in Ukraine continues to kill women and children and destroy cities"
"We focused on what can be done to end this war as soon as possible" he says.

"The EU and China agreed that this war is threatening global security and the world economy. This global instability is not in China's interest and not in the EU's interest. We share a responsibility."
"We called on #China to help end the war in #Ukraine," says 🇪🇺 @EUCOpresident.

"China cannot turn a blind eye to Russia's violation of international law. These principles are enshrined in the UN charter and are principles sacred to China."
Read 7 tweets
Apr 1
Today will see the 1st 🇪🇺🇨🇳 #EUChinaSummit in 2 years. It was planned before 🇷🇺Putin's invasion of 🇺🇦, but the topic will obviously dominate today's talks.

The big question: can 🇪🇺 use its economic leverage to stop 🇨🇳 aiding 🇷🇺, and should Europe use a carrot or stick approach?
Ahead of the summit, a senior EU official noted 🇨🇳 has over past 3 decades economically benefitted from the system of international rules that's now under threat from #Putin, therefor should want to side with 🇪🇺🇺🇸.

But 🇨🇳's interests now may be more geopolitical than economic.
"Do you [🇨🇳] want to endanger the stability and growth prospects of the global economy and your own country?” asked the EU official.

The stick approach: If 🇨🇳 supplies 🇷🇺 for #UkraineWar or helps it evade sanctions, may get less economic access to West (or face sanctions itself)
Read 6 tweets

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