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Apr 28 • 3 tweets • 3 min read
Important - #Assad has appointed a new Minister of Defense today: Major General Ali Mahmoud Abbas, the nominal head of #Syria’s 4th Division.

That can only be read one way: a major consolidation of the #Assad family’s control over the SAA, using Maher al-#Assad’s favored proxy.
#pt: Under Maher al-#Assad’s command & Maj. Gen. Mahmoud’s nominal leadership, the 4th Division has emerged as a power expert in & of itself in #Syria — it’s the prime power behind #Syria’s newfound status as a Marco state, with a narcotics industry worth $10 billions.
Interestingly, the 4th Division has also remained a long-standing, loyal partner of #Iran & #Hezbollah (including in the drugs trade) — resisting years of #Russia attempts to push reform & restructuring.

The 4th Div. also maintains a chemical weapons R&D program.

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More from @Charles_Lister

Charles Lister Profile picture
Mar 18
After 11yrs of sustained, brutal war crimes & crimes against humanity -- and 48hrs after the @nytimes published evidence of #Assad's mass graves, concealing 10,000s of murdered prisoners.

We have more evidence against #Assad than we had against #Hitler at #Nuremberg.
@nytimes From late-'21 to early-'22, a sustained pressure campaign from the U.S put a big obstacle in the way of regional normalization with #Assad -- & the "Small Group" was restructured accordingly.

#Russia & #Ukraine appears to have dissolved that delay altogether -- full speed ahead.
@nytimes To millions of Syrians, having #Assad visit the #UAE on March 18 -- the anniversary for many of the uprising -- is a gut punch of a the highest order.

The timing just cannot be a coincidence.
Read 6 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Mar 14
NEW -- #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine has killed #Syria diplomacy & will trigger an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.

To adapt to this challenge, I propose a bold new approach -- "Freeze and Build" -- focusing more strategically on aid/stabilization:

mei.edu/publications/f… Image
The war in #Ukraine has severed all meaningful U.S.-#Russia diplomatic contact, & the same for #Europe.

#Moscow is more likely than ever to veto cross-border aid at the UNSC in July & #Syria's wheat supplies are lower than ever -- a famine in 2022 is now very much on the cards. ImageImage
Amid a severing of diplomatic contact w. #Russia (except for #JCPOA talks), x2 officials tell me #Moscow has stopped answering the #Syria deconfliction line -- and x1 U.S. DOD official confirmed #Russia has resumed "unsafe and unprofessional" actions around U.S. forces in the NE. Image
Read 9 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Mar 11
For what it’s worth, *IF* #Assad’s regime begins sending troops to #Ukraine, they’ll be no more than cannon fodder in a battle & environment that’s completely alien to them - it’ll be like “sending Martians to fight on the Moon,” as I told @WSJ:

wsj.com/amp/articles/r…
When, on the rare occasion, #Assad needed capable urban warfare fighters, he turned to #Hezbollah — NOT his own military.

#Syria’s military was good at brutal, sustained sieges, indiscriminate bombardment, horrific [sectarian] violence, mass torture & organised crime. That’s it.
Within months of #Russia’s military intervention in #Syria in Sept 2015, #Putin furiously reacted to the poor performance of #Assad’s forces — they simply couldn’t take advantage of Russian backing.

To solve that, #Russia had to send in SOF ground troops & work with #Hezbollah.
Read 5 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Mar 4
In the last 48hrs, #Syria's banned almost all food exports, amid acute concern about the implications of war in #Ukraine.

#Syria is *deeply* reliant on staple food (esp. wheat) shipments from #Russia via the Black Sea. Those shipments (& #Russia financial aid) have 100% stopped.
Already, #Syria's fiscal crisis, energy shortages, unprecedented drought & the resulting crippled agricultural output had seen some aid figures warn of a famine in 2022.

#Putin's war on #Ukraine has just placed those fears on steroids -- I'm told #Damascus is extremely worried.
To make matters even worse, the war in #Ukraine has distracted international attention from #Syria & its acute humanitarian crises -- donor payments will almost certainly decline & future pledges will be [further] cut, just as the humanitarian suffering looks destined to worsen.
Read 5 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Mar 3
#Putin's invasion of #Ukraine has thrown a spanner into the #Russia-#Turkey relationship.

That offers the U.S. (& NATO) an opportunity to explore avenues for improving ties with #Ankara -- far from straightforward, but it's an opening.

For #Syria policy, this could be vital.
War in #Ukraine will have extremely negative impact on the humanitarian situation in #Syria -- and #Russia is now more likely than ever to veto cross-border aid access in July.

Any alternative plans will be dead in the water, without #Turkey playing a central role. We need that.
The #Biden admin appears to already be preparing for a possible severing of X-border aid access -- in part by seeking to provide a full sanctions waiver to NE & NW #Syria.

But we'll also need a massive #Turkey-based aid effort to fill [some of] the gap resulting from a UN veto.
Read 4 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Mar 2
Bear in mind the true number is likely far higher, not to mention that 1,000s of #Russia troops who have fled &/or been captured.

That's a staggering scale of loss in less than a week. #Ukraine
#Russia is clearly taking painfully significant losses in #Ukraine -- and is now even admitting it.

That'll surely have domestic repercussions, but #Putin is unlikely to concede anything; he'll double down.

#Syria shows what a terrifying prospect that could be.
In #Syria, #Russia literally flattened urban centers; it facilitated & covered for chemical weapons use; it bombed UN aid convoys & reinforced brutal sieges that saw people eating grass & weeds for years.

#Putin cannot be shamed, only challenged -- but nobody has ever done that.
Read 4 tweets

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