Thread by @les_politiques

On #Putin's decision to invade #Ukraine, Gordon Hahn (@rusolog) gives crucial insight. Was it planned all along, or was it last minute? Read the article.
gordonhahn.com/2022/04/28/put…

The decision was likely last minute. Remember, in the couple months before Feb 24, #Putin was practising 'coercive diplomacy' (Hahn's words), but the West not only ignored it, along with #Ukraine, they increased provocations and insisted on #NATO's open door policy.

"By February, Washington & NATO had made it clear they had not intention of even considering an end to #NATO expansion to Ukraine, insisting on the inviolability of its ‘open door’ policy. This was occurring on a background of years of expanding NATO-Ukrainian mil cooperation"

"most notably #US & allies continued training of Ukrainian forces, including neo-Nazi formations such as the terrorist Azov & Right Sector...the conduct of NATO exercises...designed to make Kiev’s forces interoperable with NATO forces much as #NATO member-states’ armies are..."

"the construction by the British of a proto-naval base on #Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, and #NATO’s conduct of military flights over Ukrainian territory. These developments prompted Putin to see and state that Ukraine de facto was already a NATO member."

"Days before the...invasion, #Zelenskiy rejected a proposal from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that would have included Kiev’s renunciation of...#NATO membership, a declaration of neutrality, and a joint US-Russia security guarantee codified in a treaty...signed by Biden & Putin"

"The WSJ reported that #Zelenskiy’s rejection of the German offer “left German officials worried that the chances of peace were fading.” French President Emmanuel #Marcon had the same sense and in a phone call issued an appeal to #Biden to make another push for diplomacy."

“I think the last person who could still do something is you, Joe. Are you ready to meet Putin?” #Macron said to #Biden. But Washington expressed no interest in more diplomacy." defenddemocracy.press/zelensky-rejec… #Ukraine

"It may or may not be relevant that “#Biden’s warning on Feb 18 that the invasion would happen within the week turned out to be accurate,” since Biden’s indifference to forestalling #Putin’s invasion helped fulfill his ‘prophecy’" theintercept.com/2022/03/11/rus…

"On Feb 21, Sholtz tried to forestall #Putin’s recognition of the independence of the LNR and the DNR...Perhaps Putin hoped that the threat of such a declaration would... prompt #Zelenskyi to take a neutrality position seriously. No such reconsideration on Zelenskiy’s part came"

"#Putin’s final decision was also prompted by the Ukrainian army’s military escalation in Donbass. From the OSCE SMM monitoring mission’s data, it appears that Ukrainian side... provoked Putin’s moves, first, to recognize the DNR/LNR’s independence, then to attack #Ukraine"

"The 1st major escalation occurred on the evening of Feb 18-19 from the #Ukraine gov-controlled side of the contact line. In the Donetsk region “The majority of ceasefire violations were recorded on the morning of 19 Feb in areas east, east-south-east & south-east of Svitlodarsk"

"In Luhansk, “(t)he majority of ceasefire violations were recorded close to the disengagement area near Stanytsia Luhanska (gov-controlled, 16km north-east of Luhansk) during the day on 19Feb...and in areas inside & close to the disengagement area near Zolote...60km W of Luhansk"

"On February 21, Ukrainian fire on Donetsk put a coal mine ventilator off line, forcing more than 250 Donbass miners to evacuate from the mines" #Ukraine

"According to the Ukrainian website Tsenzor.net, during this period and for some period before, #Ukraine’s authorities were refusing journalists access to conflict zone to around 400 journalists, permitting access only to a selected 25 ‘international journalists.’ "

"in the same period, #Zelenskiy displayed virtually no effort to meet Moscow halfway on security issues and even escalated tensions by implying Kiev was ready to reconsider its non-nuclear status..." #Ukraine

"At the February 19th Munich Security Conference #Zelenskiy’s threat of possible acquisition of some nuclear capability demonstrated clearly Kiev’s unwillingness to bend to Moscow’s demands." #Ukraine

"#Putin’s decision also included limits on the war, which Moscow calls a ‘special military operation.’ This... is particularly intriguing... The Russian army has refrained from shelling anywhere near central Kiev. Unlike #US war in Iraq, Putin’s war is not war, no less total war"

"There have been no airstrikes or missile attacks on the Ukrainian govt’s central civilian and military leadership, and civilian infrastructure has gone largely untouched, despite thousands of targeted rockets raining down on military targets." #Ukraine

"In Iraq and in any full-scale war such targets are priority in order to disrupt leadership...So far in the Russo-Ukrainian ‘war’ the Office of the President, Rada, gov ministries, the Defense Ministry and General Staff headquarters have not been targeted." #Ukraine

"In this sense, #Putin’s ‘operation’ is not a war in the way we usually understand a full-out declared war." #Ukraine

"the fact that #Putin has not targeted #Zelenskiy, regardless of unconfirmed reports in Western media of special forces teams hunting him down, demonstrates that Putin is preserving and prefers an option in which he and Zelenskiy agree to terms."

"We will know that all hope for a negotiated settlement is lost when Russian operations begin against gov and critical civilian installations, perhaps preceded by a vote in the Russian Federal Assembly on a resolution declaring war on #Ukraine."

"This will be the last step prior to the present Ukrainian regime being forced to escape to Lvov...This could lead to a prolonged guerrilla war...The only stopgaps to such catastrophic outcomes are a concerted Western drive to push forward Russo-Ukrainian peace talks or WW III"

"#Putin’s decision to undertake a ‘special military operation’ and...limit the war far below the total war threshold along with Western decisions to deepen the conflict...make a ‘WW III’ scenario beginning across Europe with potential spread ...through much of Asia more likely"

"By avoiding total war, #Putin has allowed #NATO countries led by the #US to act as co-belligerents...Supplying billions of dollars in weapons & mil intel, NATO countries violated any accepted legal definition of neutrality opening themselves up to direct military retaliation"

"Whether one or both parties want it or not, their actions have set the stage for a Kremlin decision to declare war, meaning total war, on #Ukraine"

"A Russian declaration and accompanying escalation of violence is likely to be followed by a #NATO intervention supported by a desperate and illegitimate #US administration, which appears bent on aping Ukrainian and Russian authoritarianism at home"

"Russia started this war, viewing de facto or de jure #NATO expansion to Ukraine as an existential threat. Now the West is backing a war to defeat #Russia in #Ukraine...In short, the existential threat has not gone away; it has simply been transformed and intensified."

"We are at the edge looking into the abyss without any seriousness in diplomatic purpose, no less the requisite grave urgency now necessary to preserve what remains of peace." #Ukraine #BidensWar