Drugs are literally the lifeblood of #Assad's regime & it's destabilizing the #MiddleEast. Dozens have died in #Jordan in recent months in border clashes.
@MiddleEastInst Despite how much is known & although #Assad's regime remains the most infamous perpetrator of war crimes in the C21st, the world is clearly ignoring the #Captagon threat.
In #Jordan, where it's turned deadly, authorities continue to engage with the very regime behind the threat.
@MiddleEastInst In the U.S., the #Biden admin quashed Congress efforts to include a #Captagon strategy requirement in the NDAA -- and almost entirely ignored the drugs trade's worth in the recent "report" on #Assad's wealth.
"It's important that we do everything in our power to keep cross-border assistance flowing into #Syria.. cross-line is clearly not enough.. I will do everything I can do expand the [existing] mandate."
#Russia's invasion of #Ukraine catalyzed a massive U.S. & #NATO pressure campaign -- sanctions, weapons etc.
Good.
For years in #Syria, #Russia bombed hospitals, IDP camps & schools; besieged 100,000s; covered for CW use & more.
The response? Nothing. Not even x1 sanction.
I know it's been said before, but I still find it hard to wrap my head around just how cold & risk averse the U.S. & allies were over #Russia's role in Syria.
And the costs are just staggering -- not just to #Syria & its neighborhood, but to the world at large. What an error.
In #Syria, the US line was it didn't matter & *any* push-back would risk WW3 with #Russia.
The risk in #Ukraine was infinitely higher, yet our action was swift & firm -- & effective.
The distinction is hard to swallow, especially w. 500,000 dead & 12 million displaced 11yrs on.
Amid optimism over #Ukraine, let's also remember the invasion still happened -- 11 million civilians have been displaced; towns/cities turned to rubble; & 10,000s civilians killed.
#Putin rode a wave of impunity we paved for years prior -- it'll take a long time to redraw norms.
For #Russia, this war didn't begin 2 months ago -- it began in 2014. This is the latest phase in a long war.
Like #Syria, a nationwide campaign has proven untenable, but pivoting to a piecemeal campaign can create more sustainable conditions in which #Ukraine faces the pressure.
After 11yrs of sustained, brutal war crimes & crimes against humanity -- and 48hrs after the @nytimes published evidence of #Assad's mass graves, concealing 10,000s of murdered prisoners.
@nytimes From late-'21 to early-'22, a sustained pressure campaign from the U.S put a big obstacle in the way of regional normalization with #Assad -- & the "Small Group" was restructured accordingly.
#Russia & #Ukraine appears to have dissolved that delay altogether -- full speed ahead.
@nytimes To millions of Syrians, having #Assad visit the #UAE on March 18 -- the anniversary for many of the uprising -- is a gut punch of a the highest order.
The war in #Ukraine has severed all meaningful U.S.-#Russia diplomatic contact, & the same for #Europe.
#Moscow is more likely than ever to veto cross-border aid at the UNSC in July & #Syria's wheat supplies are lower than ever -- a famine in 2022 is now very much on the cards.
Amid a severing of diplomatic contact w. #Russia (except for #JCPOA talks), x2 officials tell me #Moscow has stopped answering the #Syria deconfliction line -- and x1 U.S. DOD official confirmed #Russia has resumed "unsafe and unprofessional" actions around U.S. forces in the NE.
For what it’s worth, *IF* #Assad’s regime begins sending troops to #Ukraine, they’ll be no more than cannon fodder in a battle & environment that’s completely alien to them - it’ll be like “sending Martians to fight on the Moon,” as I told @WSJ:
When, on the rare occasion, #Assad needed capable urban warfare fighters, he turned to #Hezbollah — NOT his own military.
#Syria’s military was good at brutal, sustained sieges, indiscriminate bombardment, horrific [sectarian] violence, mass torture & organised crime. That’s it.
Within months of #Russia’s military intervention in #Syria in Sept 2015, #Putin furiously reacted to the poor performance of #Assad’s forces — they simply couldn’t take advantage of Russian backing.
To solve that, #Russia had to send in SOF ground troops & work with #Hezbollah.