New: #Ukraine's ability - and willingness - to concentrate the forces necessary to launch a counteroffensive along a broad arc north & east of #Kharkiv city indicates confidence in repelling ongoing Russian attacks w/ their existing forces in the region. isw.pub/RusCampaignMay6
Other May 6 assessment highlights below, with axis-specific updates to follow:
- Russian forces made no progress on the #Izyum axis but likely secured small gains on the outskirts of #Severodonetsk in the last 24 hours, though they are unlikely to successfully surround the town.
- Russian forces continued assaults on the #Azovstal plant, but ISW cannot confirm any specific advances. Likely widespread civilian resistance to the Russian occupation may additionally disrupt previously announced Russian plans to conduct a Victory Day exhibition in #Mariupol.
- There were no significant changes on the southern axis in the last 24 hours. Russian forces here continued to reinforce their forward positions.
The #Ukrainian counteroffensive northeast of #Kharkiv is making significant progress and will likely advance to the #Russian border in the coming days or weeks.
- This offensive likely intends to push Russian artillery away from Kharkiv city and drive to the border of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. Given the current rate of Ukrainian advances, Russian forces may be unable to prevent this from happening even with additional reinforcements.
- As ISW previously forecasted, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is also forcing Russian units intended for deployment elsewhere to redeploy to the Kharkiv front to halt Ukrainian attacks.
The PLA’s outlook on future conflict in cities has reflected lessons learned from the study of more recent foreign battles, especially by the United States and Russia. 1/7 isw.pub/PLAUrbanWarfar…
Intelligence:
#PLA writers believe that drones can enable advances in technical reconnaissance, a dynamic identified in PLA analysis and commentary from events as early as the 2002 offensive launched by the Israeli Defense Forces in the West Bank. 2/7 isw.pub/PLAUrbanWarfar…
Information Attacks:
#PLA scholars have emphasized that the launch of “soft kill” attacks, including electronic warfare and cyber warfare, to paralyze a city’s defenses can lessen collateral damage and create conditions for later strikes. 3/7 isw.pub/PLAUrbanWarfar…
The #Kremlin continues to falsely blame Ukrainian forces for planning or conducting “provocations” in areas where #Russian forces intend to commit or have already committed atrocities. 1/4 isw.pub/UkraineInvasio…
#Russian officials claimed on April 15 that Ukraine plans to attack the Lozova train station. Russian forces conducted a missile attack on a refugee-filled train station in #Kramatorsk and blamed Ukraine on April 8. 2/4 isw.pub/UkraineInvasio…
The #Russian proxy Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) claimed on April 15 that Ukrainian special forces intended to stage a terror attack on an April 16 rally in the city of #Luhansk. No such attack took place. 3/4 isw.pub/UkraineInvasio…
We discuss below some instances in which #American and other officials have presented information in ways that may inadvertently exaggerate #Russian combat capability. We do not in any way mean to suggest that such exaggeration is intentional. isw.pub/RusCampaignApr9
We assess that the #Russian military will struggle to amass a large and combat-capable force of mechanized units to operate in #Donbas within the next few months. isw.pub/RusCampaignApr9
#Ukrainian forces conducted several local counterattacks around Kyiv, in northeastern Ukraine, and toward #Kherson on March 31, successfully pressuring #Russian forces and seeking to disrupt ongoing Russian troop rotations. isw.pub/RusCampaignMar…
The Kremlin used the #COVID19 pandemic to expand its societal control tools. The Kremlin seeks to expand its ability to control Russia's population as President Putin increasingly relies on authoritarian measures to preserve his rule. THREAD 1/13 bit.ly/3isipTo
Putin has steadily expanded his grip on Russia since 2000, but the pandemic provided opportunities to refine his authoritarian toolkit further under the pretext of quarantine enforcement. 2/13
The Kremlin empowered Russian security services and military, expanded Russian authorities' digital surveillance capabilities, and tightened control over Russia's information space. 3/13