Thread by @SamuelJsdv

#UK 🇬🇧 has decided to lift restrictions on arms exports to #Turkey 🇹🇷. This is closely aligned with the on-going 🇬🇧🇹🇷🇮🇹 development of the #Eurofighter by BAE Systems for #Turkey 🇹🇷. #Italy 🇮🇹 #Spain 🇪🇸 #Germany 🇩🇪 may do the same soon, due to the 🇹🇷 Eurofighter production-links.

Some friends/colleagues and Twitter users texted questions on restrictions & wider problems, so here I clarify (I also speak on @trtworld next week):

1️⃣ UK 🇬🇧 has lifted its limited arms restrictions on Turkey 🇹🇷, but it’s not the first one to do so (others may follow) . . .

2️⃣ Why do arms restrictions exist in the first place? Some #EU 🇪🇺 members imposed limited restrictions on arms export licences to 🇹🇷, due to:
- #Eastmed tensions with 🇩🇪🇫🇷🇬🇷🇨🇾
- 🇹🇷 unilateral action in Syria, which could create more migration & positively impact Daesh . . .

3️⃣ The trend however has already changed, since 2021, both Spain 🇪🇸, Italy 🇮🇹 and Netherlands 🇳🇱 have taken a more relaxed attitude, and Madrid - which was biggest EU arms exporter to 🇹🇷 - penned a new defence deal . . .

4️⃣ However, restrictions still exist with regards to final-use (civilian versus military), dual usage and destination, basically whether arms going to Turkey 🇹🇷 will end up in Syria. The concerns differ from EU member states . . .

. . . Some EU members are scared that Turkey 🇹🇷 will create more migration flows (which is also a problem for Turkey) by continuously entering Syria. Others fear the impact this will have on weakening the YPG, which may strengthen Daesh paradoxically . . .

. . . Greece 🇬🇷 is mostly worried about its #Eastmed regional rivalry with Turkey and maritime borders and it will only defuse once a security guarantor, credibly both in Ankara and Athens appears. France 🇫🇷 has this potential, but has many concerns via-a-vis Turkey 🇹🇷 . . .

. . . Those include Libya 🇱🇾 Syria 🇸🇾Egypt 🇪🇬 and Paris’ insistence on 🇹🇷 maintaining a more balanced approach towards laicite, which is also in Ankara’s domestic interest. France 🇫🇷 believes that 🇹🇷 approach to secularity will impact entire region (and they might be right) . . .

The war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 however calls for a step-up in Turkey’s 🇹🇷 efforts to show its purpose in NATO and as an EU partner, while France 🇫🇷 Germany 🇩🇪 and Italy 🇮🇹 must follow the direction of 🇬🇧 in successfully engaging with Turkey through defence, Customs 🛃 Union & other [END].