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Recently I was writing about the strategic military situation in #Ukraine in context to the analysis of #ScottRitter. Today I want to add some more information. Scott is pointing out some "difficulties" that he sees in the #Russia|n military campaign. I want to name them
Recently I was writing about the strategic military situation in #Ukraine in context to the analysis of #ScottRitter. Today I want to add some more information. Scott is pointing out some "difficulties" that he sees in the #Russia|n military campaign. I want to name them
https://twitter.com/YugoSurfer/status/1528669385103114243
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and try to explain, why I do not share his concerns. Not because I want to "debunk" something, but I think, Scott is thinking mainly from a military perspective, and that's why it is always not wrong, to add political and economical elements to it.
#Russia #Ukraine #Donbass
and try to explain, why I do not share his concerns. Not because I want to "debunk" something, but I think, Scott is thinking mainly from a military perspective, and that's why it is always not wrong, to add political and economical elements to it.
#Russia #Ukraine #Donbass
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Scott sees the following issues:
1) There is a army being forged out in central/western #Ukraine and in the #EU states as well. Therefore the #Donbass formations buying time for them to be trained and equipped.
2) #Ukraine will get high amounts of money and be flooded by
Scott sees the following issues:
1) There is a army being forged out in central/western #Ukraine and in the #EU states as well. Therefore the #Donbass formations buying time for them to be trained and equipped.
2) #Ukraine will get high amounts of money and be flooded by
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equipment, that will kill #Russia|ns and slow them down.
3) #Ukraine|ian airfore is flying tens of sorties a day against #Russia|n troops.
Well, next I'm going to add my assessment about this assumptions.
Forged out army:
I believe certainly, that there are some trainings
equipment, that will kill #Russia|ns and slow them down.
3) #Ukraine|ian airfore is flying tens of sorties a day against #Russia|n troops.
Well, next I'm going to add my assessment about this assumptions.
Forged out army:
I believe certainly, that there are some trainings
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happening in #Poland, #Germany and central/western #Ukraine. Nevertheless, I don't believe that they are being done in huge numbers. Not for e.g. combined arms operations but rather for special purposes like stay behind operations, resistance, guerilla warfare and of course
happening in #Poland, #Germany and central/western #Ukraine. Nevertheless, I don't believe that they are being done in huge numbers. Not for e.g. combined arms operations but rather for special purposes like stay behind operations, resistance, guerilla warfare and of course
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training, how to use the freshly delivered western weapons. Why do I believe it? First of all, because there is no time for this. Second, #Russia would know this very well, if there would be huge number of soldier training. And they would report it. Third, #Russia has air
training, how to use the freshly delivered western weapons. Why do I believe it? First of all, because there is no time for this. Second, #Russia would know this very well, if there would be huge number of soldier training. And they would report it. Third, #Russia has air
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superiority over #Ukraine. Any training pointed in developing offensive combined arms operations against #Russia|n troops/territories, would be wasted time, money and (human) resources. Since such offensives (as we see daily) would be annihilated in the open filed at the
superiority over #Ukraine. Any training pointed in developing offensive combined arms operations against #Russia|n troops/territories, would be wasted time, money and (human) resources. Since such offensives (as we see daily) would be annihilated in the open filed at the
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beginning of it. If "The West" invests, then for hurting #Russia or benefiting itself (#MIC).
Financial support and lend&lease program:
The whole program aims, to replace the arsenals of eastern European countries, that are still from the Soviet Union, with #American ones.
beginning of it. If "The West" invests, then for hurting #Russia or benefiting itself (#MIC).
Financial support and lend&lease program:
The whole program aims, to replace the arsenals of eastern European countries, that are still from the Soviet Union, with #American ones.
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As long as those countries using those Soviet weapons, they spending money to #Russia for either maintenance, spare parts and ammunitions or for licenses for the same. The #US doesn't earn a thing. By scraping those into #Ukraine and force those countries to change to Western
As long as those countries using those Soviet weapons, they spending money to #Russia for either maintenance, spare parts and ammunitions or for licenses for the same. The #US doesn't earn a thing. By scraping those into #Ukraine and force those countries to change to Western
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systems, The US achieves a whole new and big market to replenish. Those are barley significant changes on the battlefield. Even though I can't deny, that they sometimes reach the battlefield, to fire one shot. And this shot certainly can or do kill #Russia|ns.
#Ukraine
systems, The US achieves a whole new and big market to replenish. Those are barley significant changes on the battlefield. Even though I can't deny, that they sometimes reach the battlefield, to fire one shot. And this shot certainly can or do kill #Russia|ns.
#Ukraine
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Another positive side effect is, that Western countries getting rid of the old "high tech" weapons, that wasn't maintained any-more an therefore aren't effective any more (#Stinger and #Javelin). No battery charges, not chargeable batteries, explosives old etc. Lend&lease
Another positive side effect is, that Western countries getting rid of the old "high tech" weapons, that wasn't maintained any-more an therefore aren't effective any more (#Stinger and #Javelin). No battery charges, not chargeable batteries, explosives old etc. Lend&lease
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will replenish those Western stocks with new and (probably) working stuff. Basically all heavy weapon deliveries are strategically useless, since #Ukraine has no air superiority. All comes back to this issue. Nevertheless on the tactical level those weapons can achieve some
will replenish those Western stocks with new and (probably) working stuff. Basically all heavy weapon deliveries are strategically useless, since #Ukraine has no air superiority. All comes back to this issue. Nevertheless on the tactical level those weapons can achieve some
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one-shot kills, before getting annihilated.
#Ukraine flies still tens of sorties:
I can not comment much on this, since I simply have got NO information, that such things happen. I know, that Ukraine is from time to time fly some machines, to support its army on some
one-shot kills, before getting annihilated.
#Ukraine flies still tens of sorties:
I can not comment much on this, since I simply have got NO information, that such things happen. I know, that Ukraine is from time to time fly some machines, to support its army on some
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operational or strategic mission (say, destroying troops, that crossing pontoon bridges). Those planes MAY even achieve some hits BUT they always get shot down immediately. And in the worst case scenario #Russia finds out from where they came from and bomb this place as well.
operational or strategic mission (say, destroying troops, that crossing pontoon bridges). Those planes MAY even achieve some hits BUT they always get shot down immediately. And in the worst case scenario #Russia finds out from where they came from and bomb this place as well.
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But I will not exclude, that I simply don't get the right information here...
I personally think, to add something to my former analysis, that we are heading to a #Syria scenario. All the points made in my last analysis applies still. Just we need to think, that we will
But I will not exclude, that I simply don't get the right information here...
I personally think, to add something to my former analysis, that we are heading to a #Syria scenario. All the points made in my last analysis applies still. Just we need to think, that we will
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reach a point, I'm not sure when exactly, when #Ukraine will run out of heavy equipment. Then #Russia will start to steamroll the "Phase 2" objectives, pointed out by myself in the last analysis. The #Ukraine|ian army will retreat to big cities where it will probably fight
reach a point, I'm not sure when exactly, when #Ukraine will run out of heavy equipment. Then #Russia will start to steamroll the "Phase 2" objectives, pointed out by myself in the last analysis. The #Ukraine|ian army will retreat to big cities where it will probably fight
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with light weapons, and probably hiding behind civilians or in bunkers like #Azovstal. This is the point, that will be reached, when we start talking about "collapsing #Ukraine|ian frontlines and defences".
This can happen right after the #Donbass campaign or later after one
with light weapons, and probably hiding behind civilians or in bunkers like #Azovstal. This is the point, that will be reached, when we start talking about "collapsing #Ukraine|ian frontlines and defences".
This can happen right after the #Donbass campaign or later after one
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of the following oblasts.
The issue here, of course, is, that the more #Ukraine is losing ground, the more the morale of the people will shrink and therefore the support, for hiding and supporting Ukrainian troops in their towns and cities. Which means in turn, that even
of the following oblasts.
The issue here, of course, is, that the more #Ukraine is losing ground, the more the morale of the people will shrink and therefore the support, for hiding and supporting Ukrainian troops in their towns and cities. Which means in turn, that even
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quicker frontline collapses are possible.
We can think of a snowball effect of losing here. If it will be possible for #Russia to bypass and encircle big towns (rest of #Novorossiya isn't that densely populated like #Donbass) then the towns could eventually capitulate after
quicker frontline collapses are possible.
We can think of a snowball effect of losing here. If it will be possible for #Russia to bypass and encircle big towns (rest of #Novorossiya isn't that densely populated like #Donbass) then the towns could eventually capitulate after
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getting far behind the actual frontlines.
I believe this is a possible scenario of the further #Russia|n military strategy/approach.
If I find the motivation, I'll write a bit, about the operational level of #Russia's campaign.
The tactical level is already widely discussed
getting far behind the actual frontlines.
I believe this is a possible scenario of the further #Russia|n military strategy/approach.
If I find the motivation, I'll write a bit, about the operational level of #Russia's campaign.
The tactical level is already widely discussed
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