Oh my! The dam holding back the disinformation waters is slowly starting to crack. And ⁦@guardian⁩ is now changing its tune.
👇🏽

Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops | Larry Elliott | The Guardian theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Axiom: withdraw product from tight market 👈🏽 get shortages. It’s as if they hadn’t thought this through.🤦🏽‍♂️

“the #sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s #oil and #gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its #war effort.”
This is the same basic epistemological framework (mindset) that had us believe in 2007 that financial markets were sound …until we found out they weren’t.

To all my former business students:
👇🏽

Just b/c something is “popular wisdom” doesn’t mean it’s the “correct wisdom.”
How many times was I called—by friend & foe alike—“Putin Puppet” (or similar) just for questioning some of the western, pro-Ukraine 🇺🇦 hyperbole?

It never did feel right. Now look at this mess! Sometimes you just gotta be stubborn stick to your guns.

nytimes.com/2022/05/31/opi…
That pun was unintentional.

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More from @Dr_Blaine

Jun 5
From #PepeEscobar, @telegram, 3 June 2022.

One of the ongoing debates in OilWorld: How much spare capacity remains in the system to produce oil at additional levels, globally, in case of emergency?

Answer: it’s running out & there ain’t no more!

#PeakOil is back! ⛽️ ✈️ 🚗 Image
Let us not forget the words of the late, great Matthew Simmons (paraphrasing): “Once Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 has peaked, then the world has effectively peaked.”

Ergo, there’s no spare capacity to offset banned / boycotted Ru oil. Ergo, global oil mkt = sellers mkt now.

#PeakOil Image
The above piece via Pepe Escobar states that there is now declining spare capacity in #KSA 🇸🇦 due to declining investment in #oil extraction tech.

It’s actually the other way around: there’s now declining investment b/c there’s no new profitable 🇸🇦 oil to be had. #PeakOil Image
Read 10 tweets
May 7
@ejmalrai @OPEC Really?! Blow up the USA 🇺🇸/ KSA 🇸🇦 special arrangement?!

“The bill, meanwhile, comes amid a growing attitude in Congress to punish Saudi Arabia for its refusal to cooperate with the US on a response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as well as a number of human rights issues.”
@ejmalrai @OPEC The US (together with the rest of what #PepeEscobar calls #NATOstan) is going for broke on this whole Russian 🇷🇺 sanctions thing. It is now a clear sign of desperation on the part of our 🇺🇸 political leaders.

Why might that be so? Hmm… I wonder. 🤔

cbsnews.com/news/russia-ch…
@ejmalrai @OPEC Y’all didn’t think it would go on forever, did you? That’s not how history rolls. 📚

Receipts:

spectator.com.au/2022/05/declin…
Read 8 tweets
Apr 1
President #Putin’s Full Remarks at the #Oil for #Ruble announcement | The Vineyard of the Saker

#Russia #oil #gas #commodities thesaker.is/president-puti…
“Today I have signed an Executive Order that establishes the rules for #trade in Russian #NaturalGas with so-called unfriendly states. We offer counterparties from such countries a clear and transparent scheme. To purchase Russian natural gas, they must open ruble accounts…”
What we are witnessing here (potentially) is nothing less than the gradual conversion of the Russian ruble from a “soft” to a “hard” currency. Students in my international business class will appreciate the significance of this.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 31
Note: This is NOT good news. 👈🏽

Oil prices slide as Biden announces largest-ever Strategic Petroleum Reserve release cnbc.com/2022/03/31/oil…
This massive release of oil from the #StrategicPetroleumReserve has all the markings of desperation in the face of a global emergency.

It’s the energy equivalent of dipping into a savings account to make routine payments.
QUOTE—

“the world has never had a release of oil reserves at this 1 million per day rate for this length of time. This record release will provide a historic amount of supply to serve as bridge until the end of the year when domestic production ramps up”
Read 4 tweets
Mar 25
#Ukraine Volunteer Breaks Down, Finds Out #War Is Not a Video Game

#soldiers
#mercenaries
#recruitment

via @YouTube & @richimedhurst
Let me offer a 3rd pint, middle ground position, to the dichotomy raised by @richimedhurst in recruitment of these mercenaries for Ukraine.

I say this as one who has recruited staff for many emergency relief ops (tho not mercenaries) in #Africa and #MENA. 1/n
3rd point*
Read 14 tweets
Mar 23
Vladimir Putin's #Judo Влади́мир Влади́мирович Пу́тин

via @YouTube
“Resisting a more powerful opponent will result in your defeat, whilst adjusting to and evading your opponent's attack will cause him to lose his balance, his power will be reduced, and you will defeat him. This can apply whatever the relative values of power…” ~ Jigaro Kano
As I study the geopolitical moves of Putin & the Russians, it seems to me they are adeptly applying “judo principles” in the pursuit of their political & economic goals.

They are using elements of surprise to throw opponents off balance, literally & figuratively.
Read 4 tweets

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