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Sunil Jhaveri Profile picture
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Jun 8 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
What factors to look for to understand which direction are #interestrates headed:

1. Total Credit in the system
2. Which gets divided into External and Internal
3. External focuses on #CAD
4. Internal: Private & Govt
5. Private - #CreditOfftake
6. Govt - #FiscalDeficit
3. External :
#CAD (Current Account Deficit - difference between country's #Imports & #Exports) goes up, #imports become expensive, rupee depreciates, bringing in imported #inflation

- interest rate tend to go up
4. Internal Credit
5. #PrivateSector - #Creditofftake goes up interest rates rise
6. Govt - #FiscalDeficit goes up interest rates rise
Where are we currently on all above parameters:

1. CAD is very high due to higher crude, ₹ depreciating
2. Credit offtake is improving
3. Fiscal Deficit is rising

All ticks for interest rates to stay elevated. #RBI does not have a choice but to raise rates

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More from @IamMisterBond

Sunil Jhaveri Profile picture
May 21
Why one needs to protect downside - a thread:

Basics:

If NIFTY goes down from 18,000 to 9,000 it is 50% drop.

Now it needs to go up 100% from thereon to break even and come back to 18,000 and then get into positive territory
Current situation:

Markets have dropped by almost 12% from the peak reached on 18th Oct 2021.

#nifty50 will have to go up by 13.63% and scale back to 18500 from hereon to break even and then get into positive territory.

That is almost 2200 points rise from hereon
Those who invested at market peaks will have to wait much longer to a) break even and b) then go into positive territory

Investing at right Valuations and not at any valuation should matter to the Investors.

For that you need to avoid #FOMO, have #patience & #discipline
Read 4 tweets
Sunil Jhaveri Profile picture
May 13
TIME TO ENTER & NOT EXIT FROM EQUITY at this juncture

After yesterday's correction, NIFTY PE & PB have gone down for our Algo to show one can invest 60% in Equity. In such a scenario, we would recommend out of ₹100, ₹60 can now be invested in Equity and balance 40% in Liquid.
We then do value STP of 3X over next few months till markets remain in Yellow Zone. If markets collapse to Green Zone, balance amount in liquid can be deployed in Equity immediately.

What is 3X?

60 lacs/60 mths = 1 lac is 1X
3X in this case is 3 lacs
But please remember, that after 60% investment in Equity if markets correct, for some time that portion will show negative returns for a short while. That should not perturb us as these investments would have been done at reasonable valuation Zone.
Read 7 tweets
Sunil Jhaveri Profile picture
May 12
#AMCs are manufacturers and will offer a basket to select from. Would anyone have invested if they came with NFO in March 2020?

It is duty of #Advisors/#Investors to invest or ignore. Just because AMCs offer is no criteria to invest.

Need to introspect before blaming others
Same is the case with IPOs, their timings and their valuations. Companies also come with #IPOs when markets were on a roll.

Again, investors had a choice to invest or ignore.

They invested with GREED and FOMO and now blaming others for these IPOs bombing
Why can't #Investors respect market signals? When going was good, they ignored advice of following #AssetAllocation.

When markets are bleeding, looking at scapegoats for their own actions.

This is #SelfAttribution bias. All good - their skill, all bad - blame it on others
Read 4 tweets
Sunil Jhaveri Profile picture
Apr 14
Many have asked me to create a thread on why to invest in Debt when interest rates go up post RBI raising rates. A thread on the same
When interest rates go up, price of underlying securities come down and vice versa. There is inverse correlation to interest rates and price of bonds
At the peak of interest rates, price of bonds should have corrected immensely. If we compare this in Equity parlance: when should one invest? When markets are down (cheap valuations) or when up (expensive valuations)?
Read 11 tweets
Sunil Jhaveri Profile picture
Mar 13
Lot of #AMCs come up with different ideas, themes, sectors.

These are demands from #Investors as they have done well in recent past.

AMCs are manufacturers & will offer what is in demand.

Final choice to say YES or NO lies entirely with Investors based on their #NEEDs
What should investors choose and what should they ignore. A point by point guide on where and why to invest in certain #themes, #MarketCap bias, #Sectors, #AssetClasses etc.

What should be criteria for these selections and what should guide them to resist from Investing?
Lets start with #Debt:

Keep enough money as 1 year of your expenses as #EmergencyFunds in #LiquidSchemes

You already have enough exposure to debt as:

1. #PPF
2. #TaxFreeBonds
3. #FDs

No need for separate debt allocation if you are investing thru #AssetAllocation (AA) or #DAAF
Read 16 tweets
Sunil Jhaveri Profile picture
Feb 22
From Jan 2018 to peak of #EquityMarkets on 18th Oct 2021, #SmartInvesting of @IamMisterBond underperformed #BuyAndHold only against #NIFTY50 but beat NIFTY Mid and Small Cap 100 by a big margin.

Post that, markets have been #volatile with downward bias Image
Results of Smart Investing v/s Buy & Hold under all Market Caps is for all to see - with 1) lower volatility, 2) beating results of Buy & Hold by big margins

#SmartInvesting switched to Equity in Mar 20 after downside protection and switched back to DAAF by Jul 20
3) Values under Buy & Hold have gone down substantially from Oct 2021 to Feb 2022 v/s values going down marginally under Smart Investing due to being in #DAAF, 4) Smart Investing portfolios better placed at current juncture to take advantage of market #volatility v/s Buy & Hold
Read 6 tweets

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