Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #volatile

Most recents (11)

From Jan 2018 to peak of #EquityMarkets on 18th Oct 2021, #SmartInvesting of @IamMisterBond underperformed #BuyAndHold only against #NIFTY50 but beat NIFTY Mid and Small Cap 100 by a big margin.

Post that, markets have been #volatile with downward bias Image
Results of Smart Investing v/s Buy & Hold under all Market Caps is for all to see - with 1) lower volatility, 2) beating results of Buy & Hold by big margins

#SmartInvesting switched to Equity in Mar 20 after downside protection and switched back to DAAF by Jul 20
3) Values under Buy & Hold have gone down substantially from Oct 2021 to Feb 2022 v/s values going down marginally under Smart Investing due to being in #DAAF, 4) Smart Investing portfolios better placed at current juncture to take advantage of market #volatility v/s Buy & Hold
Read 6 tweets
Time for a 🧵 on two charts (at the end) that seem to tell an interesting #Bitcoin story.

For several yrs @CaitlinLong_ has openly discussed the potential negative impact of #rehypothecation of #bitcoin by banks, wall street, hedge funds & the broader #tradfi community.
@saylor has discussed and shown the need for sound money and the value that having a savings mechanism brings to the system.

@JeffBooth has shed light on the fact that #deflation isn’t such a bad thing when #technology is actually making our lives better and costs cheaper.
@saifedean taught the 🌏 the importance of time, effort, and energy & the value that living by the #Bitcoin Standard can bring to individuals and countries across the globe.

@FossGregfoss has done a phenomenal job helping to #educate on the benefits of owning #volatile #assets.
Read 24 tweets
What are the implications of excess global financial market volatility on economic growth? Are there threshold effects in the relationship between growth & excess global volatility for individual countries? How should we model the nonlinear effects in a multi-country setting? 1/n
We answer these questions in recent work with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed, M Hashem Pesaran @USCDornsife @TrinCollCam, @mraissi80 @IMFNews & @arebucci1 @JHUCarey @cepr_org @nberpubs:… #TGVAR 2/n
The #Covid19 #pandemic has been a shock like no other, initiating simultaneous demand and supply disruptions. In addition, it led to a sharp tightening in global #financial market conditions during the first quarter of 2020. 3/n Image
Read 23 tweets
#Assetallocation changes as you near retirement. What if your equity #investments are stuck in a phase where the markets are battered?
Can I share #income by creating a trust?
How can an IT employee generate alternate sources of income?
Read 25 tweets
#Goal Based Investing vs #PortfolioProtection Debate: Sharing my response to that debate: 👇

I have a totally different take in this Goal based investing and communication with Investors.
My 35 years of experience is showing me totally diametrically opposite conclusion to this. Only my observations, please ignore if you do not agree:

My belief is that Goal based investing is only good on paper and may be to get some discipline in Investment habits.
But unfortunately most Investors do not follow it. For example at current juncture, when they have existential crisis, how many will continue on the path of goal based investing? Many have stopped SIPs, many have withdrawn and redeemed.

What happens to their Goals now??
Read 6 tweets
While the #JobsReport data during the #pandemic has shown itself to be highly unpredictable and #volatile, the remarkable gain of 4.8 million #jobs in June is a heartening development.
Today’s data suggested that the #labor #markets continue the process of carving out a bottom, as June’s #unemployment rate dropped to 11.1% from a peak of just less than 15% in April.
Those regions of the #economy that witnessed the greatest #job losses are now bouncing back strongly, but it is also clear that leisure, travel, energy, etc., have a very uncertain path forward today, despite seeing significant bounce-backs in near-term data.
Read 5 tweets
We’ve often suggested that #markets only focus on one thing at a time (perhaps two, if we include the political risk surrounding US elections), but the spread of #coronavirus is likely to re-rate the path of first half 2020 global #growth in a manner #investors should respect. Image
Yet, it’s critical to manage #portfolios through the short-term, with an eye always toward #investing for the medium-to-long-term: in other words, the recent extreme market #volatility is very unsettling, but at some point, it also delivers real opportunities.
And while the #Fed will do its part in maintaining #liquidity in the #financial system and in calming #volatile markets, for years we’ve counted on monetary policy to save the day. We think it’s time for a fiscal call to action, as #Fed influence on a health scare is limited.
Read 3 tweets
Clearly, #markets are in the midst of a #volatility spike, and indeed economic data for a time will be more #volatile and less certain, but at times like this it’s particularly important for investors to think hard about those factors that matter most to markets.
As such, next of our 8 @blackrock blog themes are: 3) that “1.8%” can still be a guidepost for understanding the trajectory of #economy and #markets in 2020, assuming #coronavirus risk can be mitigated; and 4) #inflation may see its best post-crisis year, but not exceed 2%.
More specifically, we think U.S. real #GDP growth and core #inflation are likely poised to stabilize near longer-run averages of roughly 1.8% this year, but clearly significant left-tail risks to global growth have increased.
Read 8 tweets
December #Toronto #realestate market charts are up! Month and year-end highlights in this blog post. As always, a few bonus charts in this thread. #TorRE /1…
One of the things I manually track to see if things are heating/cooling is the percent of sales that sold for over asking (SOA). Here you can see that 416 Freeholds spent the last 9 months higher than they were last year. The 9% spread in December was the highest all year. /2 Image
416 Condos spent the last 5 months hotter than 2018, and Dec was tied with Dec 2016 as highest ever for that month. Similarly, Dec gap of 10% higher than last year was largest gap of the year. /3 Image
Read 10 tweets
The high-frequency economic survey data look weak, and the outlook negative, but while the #economy is undeniably slowing, a solid consumer and #job market, a still steady services sector and low rate levels should bolster it over time and keep any potential #recession moderate.
Sentiment matters, and we’re concerned by this deterioration in the forward outlook, but we also need to keep in mind that the soft #data releases are often a great deal more #volatile than the ultimate changes witnessed in hard data. Image
Furthermore, it’s vital that #market observers look beyond “the economy” at its aggregate level, since while the #manufacturing sector certainly looks very weak, the question is whether the #services sector can hold up, as that’s a more critical component for growth. Image
Read 4 tweets
#US #InvertedYieldCurve & panic
On wed, #DowJones, #nasdaq & #SP500 saw more than 3% fall, highest in year so far
Reason? #10YearTreasuryYield < #2YearTreasuryYield, #spread being 0.04%, lowest since 2007
- Treasury notes are #USGovernment securities issued for 2, 3, 5 & 10 year
Starting with basics first.
1. #InterestRate & #BondPrices have #InverseRelationship, meaning if interest rises bond prices fall & vice versa
Why? eg. if currently #Coupon rate on a bond is 6% & int rate is also 6% & face value of bond is rs. 100. Meaning buyer of bond is willing to pay more or less complete face value of rs. 100
Read 19 tweets

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