Thread by @ZimermanErik

With tensions up, as good a time as any to comment on #China, both the #CCP and #Taiwan. First regarding US Speaker #Pelosi's approach and the CCP sabre rattling, I noted earlier:

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1554441940963364864

For China to dictate the speaker's travel schedule would be unprecedented

and too much weakness even for the #Democrats. For the party politically, canceling the trip would be a lose lose and going a win win. Cancelling the trip would strengthen their reputation for weakness and causing US loss of prestige abroad. They are already set to fare very

poorly in November. Going on the other hand is a win win. If nothing happens (to #Pelosi), she and the Dems get a minor boost for being "strong" or "brave" and the like. If she is hurt or killed, then as I commented the upcoming historical GOP takeover of both houses in November

is threatened. That aside, I have been wanting to comment on the possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan for quite a long time, but time has not permitted. In this thread I will not develop the thought very much, and leave that for future posts, but will note a few key ideas in broad

strokes. Communist China cannot successfully invade Taiwan. Not at this point. Any such attempt would be a massive fiasco, a catastrophe for the CCP and potentially the end of the regime. In future posts, hope to detail why this is the case. The Chinese army is not only a paper

tiger, it is a police army of an autocratic and (semi) communist regime. It is awash with corruption and inexperience. China has fought one true war since the Korean war, one many decades ago (vs Vietnam) in 1979 where it performed poorly and its PLA was badly handled.

Its ranks, from privates to generals, have no experience in combat. Positions & commands are political and training lacking & unrealistic. #Taiwan on the other hand, lives and breathes to defend itself against such an invasion across the straits. We have seen & discussed how

difficult a mere river crossing is from a military standpoint in the current war in Ukraine. Even that of a small river, let alone one the size of the Siverskyi Donets if only at low summer levels. The Taiwan straights are another matter altogether.

Rough seas, volatile weather, the narrowest point 130 km wide. Amphibious operations are among the most complex and difficult to execute for armies. Defending against them among the easiest. #Formosa itself has limited potential landing beaches (~14 spots by some estimates).

Surrounded by coastal wetlands, it is subsequently filled with high mountains, dense jungles and some of the densest urban areas in the world, the Taipei metro area housing nearly 9 million people. Taiwan itself counts on a 23 million strong population that is highly mobilizable,

with many men currently (or recently) in the reserves. The military mainly prepares for this scenario. China lacks the military transport, let alone the coordination to be able cross the channel successfully in the needed force. Any PLA forces that do get to the main island would

immediately be cut off and trapped. In any event, it is my view that currently there is no way for such an operation to succeed, even without immediate Western intervention. The interesting matter is that normally, China would know that. This is why it has never invaded yet.

Normally, China's move would be more nuanced. It could strike the island. It could attempt a naval blockade. It could invade and seize certain smaller islands closer to its mainland. It could intimidate and wear Taiwan down. The game is on the one hand, show how fruitful

cooperation (and ultimately integration) with the economic powerhouse can be, and how painful defiance will be. China can aim at wearing down the will of the Taiwanese people to resist. "Look, it's not so bad in Hong Kong, let us negotiate". Taiwan like every other place has

political disagreements, a left and a right. China can attempt military operations short of invasion combined with economic and political warfare to get to the negotiating table. Once it gets its foot in the door, such as in a "One country, two systems" framework as in Hong Kong,

Taiwan's fate is sealed. Once PLA troops can be stationed in Formosa, even if legally confined to the barracks, China can achieve what it could not with an invasion across the straits. Step by step, it can whittle away the ROC's independence. Having said that, we don't live in

normal times. Generals with power point presentations can convince themselves and the political leadership of almost anything. The West's weakness has never been so apparent. China's economy is showing the cracks, revealing the house of cards that it is. Xi Jinping is under

pressure, aware of the current weakness in the Western world, & an ideologue determined to go down in history as much more than the caretaker in charge of a strange communist/crony capitalist system that can last while everyone has more food and a bigger TV today than yesterday.

All of this means that the CCP could actually order a full scale invasion of Taiwan. It may even hope that the mere attempt, the "shock and awe" of it, can accomplish the wearing down of the population that a more complex long term operation may cause. But as long as

the Taiwanese will to fight is there, this would be a military fiasco for the CCP of historic proportions. In short what remains to be seen is if China knows that it cannot successfully invade Taiwan, regardless of mainstream media hysterics, or if it does not & has believed its

own propaganda. As some readers like to say, gotten high on its own supply (of propaganda). "Yes men", an overload of intelligence information & information in general combined with being disconnected from the reality on the ground & the street can lead to big miscalculations.

We shall see if #XiJinping will miscalculate, or strategically seize the historic moment, during western decline, to further empower the CCP, his rule and his legacy (largely to the detriment of the Chinese citizen). The battle is more likely to be one over the hearts and minds

of the residents of #Formosa. Do they still believe that they truly represent China (&/or wish to be independent), or are they willing to bend the knee for promises of safety and ease. The folks meant to be in their corner, look weaker then ever, their communist foe stronger than

ever, and so the #CCP will bet on their wavering. If the island is still populated with men who don't think life so dear, nor peace so sweet as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery, then the CCP & the PLA have no chance at all.