NEW REPORT | Salafi-jihadi groups linked to #alQaeda and the #IslamicState are spreading in #Africa, posing new threats to countries that have either suppressed or not yet experienced significant and sustained jihadist violence, warns @EmilyCEstelle. 1/5 criticalthreats.org/analysis/the-u…
This proliferation and expansion of African Salafi-jihadi groups will fuel regional disorder, humanitarian crises, and a persistent and likely increasing global terror threat. 2/5
Identifying risk factors and tracking them over time can allow analysts to forecast potential Salafi-jihadi insurgencies and better understand the dynamics leading to worst-case security scenarios and the policies that can avert them. 3/5
Countries that have contained or defeated Salafi-jihadi insurgencies may still face significant risk, particularly if they have not addressed the underlying conditions that fuel insurgencies. 4/5
These countries are most vulnerable if they experience political, security, or economic crises that reopen opportunities to weak or dormant Salafi-jihadi networks. 5/5
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