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Aug 20 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
In 2017 #Kazakhstan cut its #Uranium production to -20% below max permitted levels for 3 years 2018-2020⚛️⛏️⤵️ extended 3 times since thru 2023.➡️ Yesterday they extended cuts thru 2024 at -10% below max levels↗️ as #U3O8 prices still don't signal a return to full production.🤠🐂
Tho #Kazakhstan says it's intending to begin to raise its #Uranium production 18 months from now in 2024🐌 they warned in their H1/2022 results yesterday that they may not be able to increase production in 2024⚠️ due to "significant challenges" created by global supply chains.🚛
Even if Kazatomprom $KAP & its JV partners can increase production in 2024, it's very unlikely any new supply will go to western utilities.⚠️ #Kazakhstan has a deal with #China to fill a 23,000tU (60 Million lbs #U3O8) #Uranium storage facility by 2026, taking all available lbs🇨🇳
Like most things in life, #Uranium exports from #Kazahkstan will follow the path of least resistance which, given the difficulties in shipping brought on by #Russia's war on #Ukraine, is from Kazakh mines to its 2 bordering JV partners: #Russia's Uranium One🇷🇺 & #China's CGN.🇨🇳🚚

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More from @quakes99

John Quakes Profile picture
Aug 21
1) While market meltdowns🫠 & #Ukraine war FUD😱 may be raining on #Uranium for now⛈️ a huge Shockwave💥 dubbed 'overfeeding'🍼 is already crashing thru the seemingly calm #Nuclear fuel market.🌀⚛️⛏️ I've created a Tutorial👨‍🏫🧵 to help prepare U to ride the coming wave.🌊🏄💰👇2 Image
2) #Uranium is a very different fuel than #coal & #gas that are burned "as is" in #electricity power plants.🏭⚡️ #Nuclear reactor fuel needs to be specially processed & then packaged into fuel rods that are then loaded into reactors to generate #CarbonFree electricity.🌞⚛️⚡️👇3 Image
3) Mined #Uranium⛏️ is processed into drums of Yellow Cake #U3O8🛢️ that in the west are shipped🚢🚛 to plants in Canada, US & France for "Conversion" into a gas form called #UF6 which is then shipped in cylinders🚛 to plants in US & Europe for "Enrichment" into reactor fuel.⚛️👇4 Image
Read 26 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Aug 14
1) The #Uranium #mining #stocks #investing thesis in a nutshell🥜🧵 is that after Fukushima the price of #U3O8 sank, new mine projects were cancelled, many mines closed, investment dropped 💰⤵️ as investors thought "#Nuclear #energy is dying"🪦 but they were wrong!✖️😯 .../2👇
2) #Nuclear #energy has actually been growing steadily over past decade so that #Uranium demand today is back where it was before Fukushima.🌞⚛️🏗️↗️ A #Nuclear renaissance has been quietly underway for years but few have noticed🤷 and it's set to grow for years to come!⏫ .../3👇
3) Rising #Nuclear demand🌞⚛️🏗️⤴️ as #Uranium supplies declined⛏️⤵️ has led to a massive mined supply deficit⏬ estimated earlier this year by industry consultants at ~65M lbs #U3O8 in 2022, partially offset by ~20M lbs of 'Secondary Supply' from other non-mined sources.⛏️.../4👇
Read 5 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Aug 12
Fellow $UEX holders,
After careful review🧐 it appears to me that UNLESS $UEX shareholders vote AGAINST the proposed takeover by #Uranium Energy $UEC on Monday at 10AM, Denison's Superior Proposal will become null & void and the bidding war will grind to a halt.⚔️⛔️ .../2
2) According to the terms of $UEC's Agreement with $UEX, they have 5 business days from August 9th in which to match Denison's Superior Proposal which, correct me if I'm wrong, is by 5PM Vancouver time on Monday, August 15, 5 hours AFTER the 10AM UEX shareholders meeting. .../3
3) IF that's the case then $UEC may not even present a matching offer to Denison's proposal prior to the $UEX shareholder meeting. If $UEX holders vote >66.6% FOR the $UEC takeover at that meeting "as recommended" then the deal is approved & no further bids will be considered../4
Read 5 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Jul 26
Question 4 U @brandon_munro et al re knock-on effects on WNA #Uranium demand figures from overfeeding by enrichers: WNA quotes U demand at 62,496tU (162.5M lbs #U3O8) per 393,744MW #Nuclear capacity = ~413K lbs/1000MW. AFAI can tell, this figure accounts for a SWU surplus... Image
2) which has led to underfeeding which reduced amount of #Uranium (UF6 & mined #U3O8) required to enrich #Nuclear fuel to achieve the necessary fuel load for each reactor, circa 15% below that which would be needed if there was no SWU surplus. Is that correct?🤔 in other words...
3) without underfeeding, #Uranium(#U3O8) demand per 1000MW of #Nuclear rises by circa 15% to 475K lbs.⬆️ As enrichers move to overfeeding by say 15%, will WNA then raise their U requirements to 546K lbs/1000MW for western reactors not supplied by Russia?🤔 As well, SWU deficit...
Read 4 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Jul 24
1) The #Uranium #mining #stocks #investing thesis in a nutshell🥜🧵 is that after Fukushima the price of #U3O8 sank, new mine projects were cancelled, many mines closed, investment dropped 💰⤵️ as investors thought "#Nuclear #energy is dying"🪦 but they were wrong!✖️😯 .../2👇
2) #Nuclear #energy has actually been growing steadily over past decade so that #Uranium demand today is back where it was before Fukushima.🌞⚛️🏗️↗️ A #Nuclear renaissance has been quietly underway for years but few have noticed🤷 and it's set to grow for years to come! .../3👇
3) Rising #Nuclear demand🌞⚛️🏗️⤴️ as #Uranium supplies declined⛏️⤵️ has led to a massive mined supply deficit⏬ estimated earlier this year by industry consultants at ~65M lbs #U3O8 in 2022, partially offset by ~20M lbs of Secondary Supply from other non-mined sources.⛏️.../4👇
Read 5 tweets
John Quakes Profile picture
Jun 19
1/14)#Uranium #mining #stocks have been thrashed by global market meltdown⏬ but U #investing thesis👨‍🏫 is most bullish in 4 decades!🤠🐂 This🧵will bring U up to speed🏇 on how a record U supply deficit⤵️⛏️ is colliding💥 with a global #Nuclear #Energy Renaissance⤴️🌞🏗️⚛️ 🌊🏄‍♀️👇2
2)Entering 2022, #Nuclear fuel consultants UxC & TradeTech estimated 200M lbs of #Uranium demand versus just 135M lbs of mined supply🔀 for a ~65M lbs primary deficit.↕️ #Nuclear utilities are drawing down inventory & relying on ~20M lbs of Secondary Supply to fill the gap.⛏️👇3
3)But then #Russia invaded #Ukraine🪖 turning global #Nuclear fuel market on its head.🙃 Russia's 39% of global enriched #Uranium, 27% conversion & 14% of mined U supply have been disrupted by US & EU sanctions, shipping bans & self-sanctioning by western utilities🇷🇺⚛️⛏️⛔️🇺🇸🇪🇺👇4
Read 14 tweets

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