Nicolas Tenzer Profile picture
Sep 26 20 tweets 7 min read
20 theses on #Ukraine/#Russia: recap.
1 We must act not only for Ukraine to win, completely, but also for Russia to lose, fully.
Let's stop fearing a collapse of Russia (which some weak minds are more worried about than Ukraine's victory).
A #Thread
1/20 Image
2 There can be neither negotiations (apart from one-off issues like prisoner exchanges) with Putin's regime, nor peace talks.
Any hint of this weakens us.
3 The discourse in favor of such discussions, such as "we will have to sit down at the negotiating table", is either a sign of ignorance of the danger of this regime, or a propaganda narrative.
It would lead to a betrayal of our commitments to Ukraine and put us in danger.
4 We must stop with the fallacious argument "we must not take the risk of escalation" with Moscow. It is this discourse that has led us to disaster, at least since 2008 (#Georgia) + #Ukraine 2014, #Syria 2015... Have we really not learned anything from our past mistakes?
5 #Justice is not an option, nor an element of negotiation
Punishment of the four categories of crimes (war, against humanity, genocide, aggression) is not only a strategic imperative, it is enshrined in international law.
6 The fall of the Putin regime (or equivalent) is our goal. Western leaders may not be able to express it this way for communication reasons, but this does not make it any less a goal that they must internalize.
(It doesn't mean that we should send tanks to Moscow).
7 There can be no lifting of sanctions as long as Putin (or the equivalent) is in the Kremlin.
Let us never lift them until not only Ukraine is liberated, but also until reparations for war damages are paid and justice is done.
8 On the contrary, they must be strengthened: there are still too many loopholes (financial sector, energy, list of persons) and some are poorly implemented (in particular, some entities in Europe linked to the Kremlin continue to receive funds from Moscow).
9 We must accelerate considerably the delivery of weapons to #Ukraine and lift all limitations on their nature or scope.
No one can say they support Ukraine and not do so.
That is a form of guilt.
High time to be consistent.
10 Ukraine should join @NATO as soon as possible. It will be an asset for the organization.
But the security guarantees given to #Ukraine will have to be a kind of NATO+ or article 5 + (automaticity of the response that doesn't exist in this article).
11 In the Western world, alleged paid propagandists must be investigated, identified, their names exposed and laws, where necessary, passed so that they can be punished by a court.
We are still more often not serious about it.
12 Russia will have to pay reparations for the crimes committed and for the massive damage they have inflicted on Ukraine.
Legal mechanisms must be developed and passed to this end.
13 There will be no democratic renewal of 🇷🇺 without conscience and shame for the crimes committed. The policy of memory of crimes is a priority for a future government.
If they want to be free, the 🇷🇺 people must become aware of the reality of a hundred years of history.
14 We cannot be indifferent to the future of #Russia. After Putin, this question will be one of the major issues.
We will also have to learn from our past mistakes (often linked to our own greed and "developmentalist" vision of politics).
15 We have seen internationally who our friends and adversaries are.
This was a test of their reliability.
The conduct of our future international relations cannot ignore it. This is true in both ways.
16 The past mistakes of many leaders towards the Russian regime are profound and have had serious consequences in terms of security and, dramatically, in terms of casualties.
These lessons must be learned with lucidity honesty, not by practicing denial about our blindness.
17 Our past mistakes with Russia must also serve as a lesson in how to deal with other dictatorships.
Each history, context, and regime is specific, but there are lessons that can be transposed.
18 Those who claim that Putin has changed are either blind or accomplices.
We cannot easily absolve those who have looked away from 23 years of crimes.
Some may not have changed because they do not make the connection between #humanrights violations and #security threats.
19 The EU will be forever changed by Russia's war on #Ukraine. Those who hope to go back to ancien times have understood nothing about the forces at work in Europe & the very objectives of EU construction.
This war will dictate our future policies.
The EU is indispensable.
20 We must pay close attention to the maneuvers of the dictatorships which announce that they are distancing themselves from #Russia.
They are also doing this to keep the same type of regime in Moscow, not to change it.
This is a possible trap for the West.

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More from @NTenzer

Sep 21
Quick #thread on #Putin's speech.
1 We in the West need to stop buying into the rhetoric about #redlines and the nuclear threat.
I reminded him yesterday on a program: he has been using this rhetoric for many years.
To buy into it is to give up—with consequences for other countries elsewhere.
Not coincidentally, this is also a narrative picked up by Putin's propagandists in the West who push for a negotiated solution, peace talks, not arming #Ukraine, no trial for Putin, etc.
This narrative is what the Kremlin expects. Always keep in mind whose game you are playing and be ruthless to those who relay it.
More than time to throw this Putin #redline narrative in the trash.
Read 13 tweets
Sep 20
What is interesting here is not so much the content of the message—quite classic—as its very existence.
It may show a willingness (to be confirmed) of the US to re-engage in the #Armenia-#Azerbaijan conflict when it had been very absent during the 2020 war...
and, before that, little involved in the Minsk group.
The EU as such was, by the way, also.
This left the door open for #Russia, which has become a kingmaker in this region, and reinforced its troops after the 2020 war.
It had also given a tacit nihil obstat to #Azerbaijan.
I had written this long paper in 2021 on this topic where I explained the background and consequences of the 2020 war.
Perhaps the Russian war against #Ukraine, which has weakened the latter, could in the long run be a game changer,...
Read 4 tweets
Sep 18
Always remember the genocide of the Tatars of #Crimea.
Also always talk about the forced disappearances, torture, persecution of #Tatars and the destruction of their culture by Putin's #Russia since 2014.
Also do not write off Crimea.
Right time to write a #thread on #Crimea.
1 Some consider Crimea a side issue. No, in terms of law #CrimeaIsUkraine and Western leaders must be consistent with their statements on Crimea's territorial integrity. It comprehends Crimea.
Full stop.
2 Let's stop with the lying "Crimea is Russian" speech. Besides the fact that it has not always been, the historical legitimization has no value. Only international law counts.
The annexation of Crimea had only one precedent in Europe since WWII: the Sudetenland by Hitler.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 24
On this day when, in thought with my Ukrainian friends, I am celebrating the 31st anniversary of the independence of #Ukraine.
I would like to say one simple thing: the whole world has been able to see with the force of evidence that this is a great nation...
Слава Україні!
carried by an extraordinary people.
There are few moments in history when an entire people, from the most anonymous person to its leaders, has shown such courage, such strength, such dignity, such exemplarity.
This great nation of #Ukraine is also great because of its vision and political ideals. It has built itself as a great nation not by a historical heritage that it has taken over passively, but by its present and current will.
It has made history.
It has instituted freedom.
Read 22 tweets
Aug 21
I read many (opposing) comments about the supposed or real influence of Alexander #Dugin. I made some myself on several TV and radio stations today.
He was certainly not Putin's Rasputin, nor his director of conscience. But was he without influence?
Let's try to find out.
I don't think you have to be on one side or the other. Things are more subtle and there are methodological points to consider.
The binary opposition of the two theses makes no sense.
1 First of all, yes, Dugin's books and articles were not equivalent in Putin's ideological system to the Communist Party Manifesto or Marx's Capital in Soviet references or Mao Zedong's Little Red Book. Here me on Putin's ideology.
Read 14 tweets
Aug 21
A necessary reminder of the obvious: to think that #Ukraine, as the usual propagandists, Zakharova and others, say, is behind the murder of #Dugin's daughter is totally inane & inconceivable.
The origin is obviously internal, not external.
Hence a brief #thread on this story
1 First of all, I unreservedly condemn this assassination.
I think that Dugin should be tried in an international criminal court, just as Julius Streicher was. He is guilty of multiple calls to murder. This does not justify the attempt to kill him.
It's a matter of principle.
2 The relative sophistication of the operation hardly suggests the action of an improvised opposition group.
It is highly doubtful that elements of the Russian security services (which ones? that the question) were not involved.
Read 7 tweets

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