Thread by @NTenzer

20 theses on #Ukraine/#Russia: recap.
1 We must act not only for Ukraine to win, completely, but also for Russia to lose, fully.
Let's stop fearing a collapse of Russia (which some weak minds are more worried about than Ukraine's victory).
A #Thread
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1/20

2 There can be neither negotiations (apart from one-off issues like prisoner exchanges) with Putin's regime, nor peace talks.
Any hint of this weakens us.
2/20

3 The discourse in favor of such discussions, such as "we will have to sit down at the negotiating table", is either a sign of ignorance of the danger of this regime, or a propaganda narrative.
It would lead to a betrayal of our commitments to Ukraine and put us in danger.
3/20

4 We must stop with the fallacious argument "we must not take the risk of escalation" with Moscow. It is this discourse that has led us to disaster, at least since 2008 (#Georgia) + #Ukraine 2014, #Syria 2015... Have we really not learned anything from our past mistakes?
4/20

5 #Justice is not an option, nor an element of negotiation
Punishment of the four categories of crimes (war, against humanity, genocide, aggression) is not only a strategic imperative, it is enshrined in international law.
5/20

6 The fall of the Putin regime (or equivalent) is our goal. Western leaders may not be able to express it this way for communication reasons, but this does not make it any less a goal that they must internalize.
(It doesn't mean that we should send tanks to Moscow).
6/20

7 There can be no lifting of sanctions as long as Putin (or the equivalent) is in the Kremlin.
Let us never lift them until not only Ukraine is liberated, but also until reparations for war damages are paid and justice is done.
7/20

8 On the contrary, they must be strengthened: there are still too many loopholes (financial sector, energy, list of persons) and some are poorly implemented (in particular, some entities in Europe linked to the Kremlin continue to receive funds from Moscow).
8/20

9 We must accelerate considerably the delivery of weapons to #Ukraine and lift all limitations on their nature or scope.
No one can say they support Ukraine and not do so.
That is a form of guilt.
High time to be consistent.
9/20

10 Ukraine should join @NATO as soon as possible. It will be an asset for the organization.
But the security guarantees given to #Ukraine will have to be a kind of NATO+ or article 5 + (automaticity of the response that doesn't exist in this article).
10/20

11 In the Western world, alleged paid propagandists must be investigated, identified, their names exposed and laws, where necessary, passed so that they can be punished by a court.
We are still more often not serious about it.
11/20
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/corruption-a…

12 Russia will have to pay reparations for the crimes committed and for the massive damage they have inflicted on Ukraine.
Legal mechanisms must be developed and passed to this end.
12/20

13 There will be no democratic renewal of 🇷🇺 without conscience and shame for the crimes committed. The policy of memory of crimes is a priority for a future government.
If they want to be free, the 🇷🇺 people must become aware of the reality of a hundred years of history.
13/20

14 We cannot be indifferent to the future of #Russia. After Putin, this question will be one of the major issues.
We will also have to learn from our past mistakes (often linked to our own greed and "developmentalist" vision of politics).
14/20

15 We have seen internationally who our friends and adversaries are.
This was a test of their reliability.
The conduct of our future international relations cannot ignore it. This is true in both ways.
15/20

16 The past mistakes of many leaders towards the Russian regime are profound and have had serious consequences in terms of security and, dramatically, in terms of casualties.
These lessons must be learned with lucidity honesty, not by practicing denial about our blindness.
16/20

17 Our past mistakes with Russia must also serve as a lesson in how to deal with other dictatorships.
Each history, context, and regime is specific, but there are lessons that can be transposed.
17/20

18 Those who claim that Putin has changed are either blind or accomplices.
We cannot easily absolve those who have looked away from 23 years of crimes.
Some may not have changed because they do not make the connection between #humanrights violations and #security threats.
18/20

19 The EU will be forever changed by Russia's war on #Ukraine. Those who hope to go back to ancien times have understood nothing about the forces at work in Europe & the very objectives of EU construction.
This war will dictate our future policies.
The EU is indispensable.
19/20

20 We must pay close attention to the maneuvers of the dictatorships which announce that they are distancing themselves from #Russia.
They are also doing this to keep the same type of regime in Moscow, not to change it.
This is a possible trap for the West.
20/20