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Sep 29 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Circumstantial evidence suggests that #Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties. Read the first daily Iran Crisis Update by @criticalthreats with @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 1/6
Regime power centers are behaving as if succession is either imminent or underway. 2/6
The ongoing #MahsaAmini protests may be challenging the regime’s capability and willingness to crackdown but do not appear close to collapsing the regime. 3/6
The #IRGC may assess that anti-regime Kurdish militants operating around the #Iran-#Iraq-#Turkey border are arming and stoking the protests. 4/6
The #IRGC conducted a large-scale attack into Iraqi Kurdistan on September 28, killing one American. 5/6
Daily #Iran Crisis Updates will be available here: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 6/6

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More from @criticalthreats

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Oct 1
#Russian President Vladimir #Putin announced the illegal #Russian annexation of four #Ukrainian territories on September 30 without clearly defining the borders of those claimed territories. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Ukrainian forces will likely capture or encircle #Lyman within the next 72 hours. Image
#Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneuvers in #Kherson Oblast but stated that Ukrainian forces continued to force #Russian troops into defending their positions. Image
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Critical Threats Profile picture
Sep 29
Popular, anti-regime protests have erupted throughout Iran since September 16. Read the first #Iran Crisis Update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. 1/5 criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
Protests are now occurring in over 93 cities and towns in 31 of #Iran's 32 provinces as of September 25. The regime has violently suppressed protests and sustained casualties among its security forces in recent days. 2/5 Image
#Iranian reporting and statements from senior judiciary and security officials suggest that the regime fears losing its capability to crack down on ongoing unrest. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Sep 28
#Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely announce the Russian annexation of occupied #Ukrainian territory on September 30 after Russian officials completed their falsified “referenda” on September 27. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Ukrainian forces are consolidating their positions on the eastern bank of the #Oskil river and made further gains on the outskirts of #Lyman.
#Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations around #Bakhmut and west of #Donetsk City, increasingly leveraging penal units.
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Sep 27
#Ukrainian forces continued to make advances north of #Lyman and on the eastern bank of the #Oskil River. The latest update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
The #Ukrainian counter-offensive in #Kharkiv and northern Donetsk Oblasts continued to make gains near #Lyman on September 25 and September 26. Image
#Russian forces continued conducting offensive operations around #Bakhmut and west of #Donetsk City. Image
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Sep 26
An Iranian parliamentarian recently suggested using facial recognition technology to crack down on internal unrest. What are #Iranian AI capabilities and how do they intersect with ongoing #MahsaAminii Protests? A thread: #IranProtests 1/6
The head of #Iran's parliamentary legal and judicial committee recently advocated for reinforcing Iranian facial recognition technology to reduce clashes between #Iranian security forces and protestors. 2/6 Image
This isn't the first time we're hearing of #Iran using #AI tech to track dissent. The Iranian Traffic Police discussed its plans to use facial recognition software to identify and fine pedestrians back in 2020. 3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Sep 26
Key #Iranian military leaders may be endorsing President Ebrahim #Raisi to succeed Ali #Khamenei as #Iran’s next supreme leader. Here is what happened and why it matters: (1/8)
Senior Iranian military officials published an open letter praising Raisi’s #UN General Assembly address on 9/21. These letters are rare and used by officials to signify their political positions to the wider regime. Some of the #IRGC’s senior commanders signed this letter. (2/8)
These IRGC commanders include a tight circle of senior officers who often influence and intervene in domestic politics to promote their hardline agendas. They have established the IRGC as the most dominant actor in Iran. Read more here: (3/8)
criticalthreats.org/wp-content/upl…
Read 8 tweets

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